Wheat Outlook, January 2018 (summary)
Sluggish All-Wheat Disappearance Reflects Increasingly Competitive Global Wheat Marketplace
Newly released USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports inform multiple balance sheet changes this month. The NASS Grain Stocks
report indicates lighter-than-expected all-wheat disappearance through the first half of the 2017/18 marketing year.Upward revisions to first and second quarter ending stocks imply reduced feed and residual use, lowered 20 million bushels this month to 100 million, and contribute to a 29 million bushel increase in 2017/18 ending stocks. Competition among exporters is increasing, most notably from Russia, for which exports are increased to a record-setting 35.0 million tons this month on larger production, stocks, and pro-export Government policies. Argentina is also proving to be a formidable wheat exporter, with a 500,000 ton export increase this month to 13.0 million. Strengthening global competition has put downward pressure on U.S. production and planted area.