Market Outlook

Wheat Outlook, September 2017


Brighter Yield Outlook for Black Sea Drives Global Wheat Up

World wheat production in 2017/18 is forecast higher, getting closer to last year’s record. Weather conditions have generally been beneficial for grain in the
Black Sea countries, but Russia has enjoyed truly remarkable weather. Russia is expected to extend its all-time wheat production record, thereby pushing its trade
share up and widening the gap between its exports and those of other major exporters.

1/ Growth reported as index of average annual export values over the 5-year periods with 1997-01=100. FSU – Former Soviet Union; EU – European Union.
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution online database.

The U.S. 2017/18 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged. The midpoint season-average farm price is lowered 20 cents to $4.60 per bushel.
From late August through early September, record-setting rain and widespread flooding, resulting from Hurricane Harvey, inhibited rail transportation and
reduced export shipments from the Gulf Coast region of the United States.

The September Wheat Outlook report and previous reports are available here: