Market Outlook

See the latest Wheat Outlook report.

U.S. Wheat Exports Forecast at 4-Year High

U.S. Wheat Production Forecast at 8-Year High U.S. all-wheat production for 2024/25 is forecast at 2,008 million bushels, the largest wheat crop since 2016/17. Production is up 134 million bushels from the previous month and 11 percent higher than the previous year. Larger production for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring (HRS) are the major factors driving the year-to-year increase in total wheat production, while smaller increases are seen for White and Durum. Soft Red Winter (SRW) is down from the previous year’s bumper crop. Total area planted to wheat this year is lower than last year, but improved conditions in HRW areas resulted in lower abandonment and higher area harvested for that class. HRW yields are also up substantially with improved conditions. The HRS production forecast benefits from favorable weather during crop development, resulting in record yields, which more than offset the effect of smaller area harvested. Stronger U.S. supplies this year are expected to make U.S. wheat more competitive on the global market, contributing to higher exports. Total U.S. exports are forecast at 825 million bushels, the largest since 2020/21.