Market Outlook

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U.S. Imports Forecast at Highest Level in 6 Years

U.S. all-wheat imports are forecast at 145 million bushels, the largest since 2017/18. This year’s higher import forecast is driven by unusually large imports from the European Union. After drought affected production of U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in consecutive seasons, elevated prices motivated millers in select locations to seek out high-protein supplies from nontraditional sources. HRW imports for 2023/24 are forecast at a record 25 million bushels (records go back to 1973/74), up from just 5 million bushels last year. This trade flow (origin and class of wheat) is atypical, as U.S. wheat imports are normally dominated by Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum imports from neighboring Canada. For reference, U.S. wheat imports in 2017/18 were elevated due to large imports of both HRS and Durum from Canada as drought reduced supplies of both classes in the United States.

Bar chart of United States all-wheat imports from 2008/09 marketing year to 2023/24

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