Market Outlook

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U.S. Wheat Stocks Projected at 16-Year Low

U.S. wheat ending stocks in 2023/24 are projected at 556 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2022/23 to the lowest level since 2007/08. Total supplies are down 3 percent from the previous year with tighter beginning stocks more than offsetting slightly higher production and imports. Production of Hard Red Winter wheat is down from the previous year driven by high abandonment and low yields resulting from a second consecutive year of drought. U.S. wheat exports are down 50 million bushels year to year to 725 million bushels (figure 1), the lowest level since 1971/72. While U.S. wheat stocks are projected to tighten, the U.S. season-average farm price is forecast at the second highest level on record. The season-average farm price is projected slightly lower than the record set in 2022/23 due to abundant competitor supplies and lower prices of corn.

Bar graph of ending stocks in million of bushels with a line chart of dollars per bushel from 2003 to 2023

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