Wheat Outlook, August 2019 (summary)
Weaker outlook for U.S. all-wheat price helps to improve export prospects
The season-average farm price (SAFP) forecast for 2019/20 all-wheat is lowered 20 cents per bushel on a 10-cent-per-bushel reduction for the corn SAFP and lower wheat price expectations for the remainder of the market year. A nearly 60-million-bushel month-to-month expansion of projected 2019/20 all-wheat production puts additional downward pressure on the all-wheat SAFP. A lower price outlook helps to enhance the U.S.’s competitive position in global wheat markets, especially as reduced production and exportable supplies are forecast for the EU, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Production for these key competitors is collectively lowered 3.5 million tons this month and creates additional, though limited, opportunities to expand U.S. sales in the new marketing year.