Market Outlook

 

Wheat Outlook: July 2021

Summary

 

Production Cut for U.S. Durum, Other Spring Wheat Tightens Supply Outlook for 2021/22

U.S. wheat supplies in the 2021/22 marketing year are cut nearly 5 percent this month on the dual influence of reduced carryin from the 2020/21 marketing year and a sizable 152-million-bushel reduction in forecast 2021/22 production. Lowered expectations for domestic supplies—projected to be the lowest since 2007/08 reduce both domestic and export use, lowering total utilization by 35 million. Despite the utilization cuts, the U.S. balance sheet and stocks-to-use ratio are further tightened this month, supporting a 10-cent-per bushel increase in the forecast season-average farm price to $6.60 per bushel (fig. 1).

See the Wheat Outlook.