Wheat Outlook, February 2018 (summary)
U.S. Stocks Raised 20 Million Bushels on Reduced Exports Despite Food Use Increase
All-wheat ending stocks for 2017/18 are raised 20 million bushels this month, following a 25 million bushel reduction in exports and a 5 million bushel increase in food use. U.S. exports of hard red winter wheat are reduced 10 million bushels on strengthening competition and rising cash prices linked to concerns about the expanding drought in key production regions. White wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels on the slowing pace of sales (figure 1). Competition from Canada in key Asian markets remains strong, and Argentina is proving to be a formidable competitor in Brazilian and African wheat markets. The United States has also lost market share to France in Morocco. Global supplies of wheat are plentiful and the U.S. share of global trade continues to fall. U.S. exports in 2016/17 were more than 100 million bushels above the current forecast for 2017/18.