ERS Charts of Note
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Wednesday, February 8, 2023
Retail prices for chicken wings have been trending lower in recent months and in time for national sporting events such as the upcoming Super Bowl and the college basketball championship tournaments (“March Madness”). Previously, a combination of limited supplies and strong demand led to a historic runup in wholesale and retail prices. Wholesale chicken wing prices reached a peak of $3.25 per pound in late May 2021, but retail prices continued to climb. At the start of the 2022 March Madness basketball tournament, the national average retail feature price (prices advertised in grocery flyers) was estimated at $4.29 per pound. Nearly a year later and just ahead of the 2023 Super Bowl and basketball tournament, the national average feature price is down nearly $1.70 per pound to $2.62 (price as of January 13). Increased production has boosted volumes of chicken wings in cold storage, so wholesale prices have fallen even further than retail prices. The average wholesale price in December 2022 was 89 cents per pound, down more than $2.50 per pound from the 2021 peak. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook: January 2023.
Tuesday, February 7, 2023
The USDA, Economic Research Service forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI)—gross cash income minus cash expenses—to decrease by $44.7 billion to $150.6 billion in 2023. This marks a 22.9 percent decline after reaching a forecast record high of $195.3 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $30.5 billion (18.2 percent) to $136.9 billion in 2023 after reaching a forecast of $167.3 billion in 2022, its highest level since 1973 after adjusting for inflation. (Calculations include rounding.) Net farm income is a broad measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. If these forecasts are realized, both NCFI and NFI would remain above their respective 20-year averages (2002–2021) in 2023. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $38.9 billion (7.0 percent) from 2022 to $519.8 billion in 2023. During the same period, production expenses are expected to increase by $5.7 billion (1.3 percent) to $459.5 billion. Additionally, direct Government payments to farmers are projected to fall by $5.8 billion (36.2 percent) from 2022 levels to $10.2 billion in 2023, largely because of anticipated lower payments from supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance programs. Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, Economic Research Service’s topic page Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast, reflecting data released on February 7, 2023.
Monday, February 6, 2023
Researchers at USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) examined rotational grazing systems on beef cow-calf operations and found that as average paddock size increased, farmers and ranchers tended to rotate their cattle less frequently. Rotational grazing systems are those in which livestock owners rotate animals among a series of paddocks (fenced pasture areas), allowing forage to recover before returning the cattle to graze in that spot again. A key decision for ranchers and farmers that affects forage growth is the number of rotations for a given number of paddocks. A large portion (84 percent) of intensive rotational grazing (IRG) operations with small paddocks (paddocks of 19 acres or less) rotated their cattle so that each paddock had four or more rotations per year. Intensive rotational grazing systems use an average grazing period of 14 or fewer days per paddock. In contrast, researchers found that about 52 percent of IRG operations using large paddocks (40 acres or more) rotated cattle four or more times per year. This pattern of smaller paddocks and more rotations was even more evident for basic rotational grazing (BRG) operations, which use an average grazing period longer than 14 days per paddock. Around 67 percent of BRG operations with small paddocks used four or more rotations per paddock per year, but the share drops to 35 percent for BRG operations with large paddocks. The relationships between rotation frequency, paddock size, and system intensity highlight the complexity underlying the practice of rotating cattle through multiple paddocks. This chart appears in the ERS report Rotational Grazing Adoption by Cow-Calf Operations, published in November 2022.
Thursday, February 2, 2023
In 2021, the average dollar spent by U.S. consumers on domestically produced food returned 39.4 cents as property income. Property income is income received by owners of capital assets such as land, equipment, and intellectual property after they pay for intermediate inputs, labor, and output taxes. The 39.4 cents as property income marked a 0.3-cent increase from a revised 2020 estimate of 39.1 cents and the second year in a row in which property income’s share of the food dollar set a record high for USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Dollar Series. The share of the food dollar that compensates labor through salaries and benefits was 50.3 cents in 2021, a 1.2-cent decrease from 2020. The remaining food dollar shares were each at 5.1 cents for output taxes (excise, sales, property, and severance taxes less subsidies, customs duties, and other government fees) and imports, which include imported ingredients and other inputs needed for domestic food production. Annual shifts in the primary factor shares of the food dollar may occur for a variety of reasons, including changes in the mix of foods consumers buy, the balance of food consumed at home and away from home, and changes in primary factor markets for non-food production. The data for this chart are available for the years 1997 to 2021 and can be found in Food Dollar Series, updated November 17, 2022.
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Among racial and ethnic groups (not including non-Hispanic White) in rural areas, Hispanic workers often lead employment in the six largest rural industries. In 2019, Hispanic workers performed 14.4 percent of rural jobs in agriculture and 12.8 percent in accommodation and food services. In rural manufacturing jobs, 8.7 percent of workers were Hispanic; in government, 7.8 percent; in retail, 7.5 percent; and in health care and social assistance, 6.2 percent. Rural Black workers were more evenly distributed with 9.7 percent of the workforce in manufacturing, 9.4 percent in health care and social assistance, 9.5 percent in hotels and restaurants, and 8.8 percent in government. Black workers were less represented in retail (7.0 percent) and in agriculture (2.4 percent). Asian workers constituted less than 2 percent of the rural workforce in most industries, except for accommodation and food services (3.3 percent). Similarly, American Indian or Alaska Native workers represented less than 2 percent of rural employment in most industries except government (3.4 percent). This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Rural America at a Glance: 2022 edition.
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports have almost returned to seasonal-average levels since summer 2022, when Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative to reopen Black Sea routes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to elevated security risks and infrastructure damage, causing Ukraine’s seaports to be almost completely cut off from March through July. The restrictions limited exports and led to an accumulation of corn and wheat stocks. As global exportable supplies diminished, international wheat export prices spiked. Signed in July 2022, the Black Sea agreement enabled the safe passage of Ukraine grain exports through three ports. That and ample corn and wheat stocks allowed Ukraine to export a larger combined volume of the two crops than the five-year average in September and October. In December, Ukraine was able to export more than 3.0 million metric tons of corn, the largest since the beginning of the war, and 1.6 million metric tons of wheat. The Black Sea Grain Initiative has increased the opportunities for Ukrainian grain to leave the country and has relieved some price pressures internationally, but uncertainty remains as the agreement is set to expire in mid-March 2023 and may not be extended. This chart was drawn from “Feature Article: Changes in Ukraine Wheat and Corn Export Patterns Since the Start of the Ukraine-Russia War,” which appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Wheat Outlook: January 2023.
Monday, January 30, 2023
Rotational grazing is a management practice in which livestock are cycled through multiple fenced grazing areas (paddocks) to manage forage production, forage quality, animal health, and environmental quality. In a recent study, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers found the highest rate of total rotational grazing adoption (49 percent of operations) in the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt region, and the lowest level (25 percent of operations) in the Southern Plains region. The researchers classified two systems of rotational grazing: basic, in which average grazing periods are longer than 14 days per paddock; and intensive, in which grazing periods are 14 days or fewer per paddock. Researchers used detailed cow-calf operation data on grazing system management decisions to compare the adoption rates of basic rotational grazing systems with intensive systems. For four of the five regions analyzed in this research, basic rotational grazing was more common than intensive rotational grazing. The exception was the Appalachian region, where 25 percent of cow-calf operations used intensive rotational grazing and 22 percent used basic rotational grazing. Major drivers for regional differences in adoption could include varying forage types, which may respond better to rotational grazing than others, and differing climates. This chart draws on information in the ERS report Rotational Grazing Adoption by Cow-Calf Operations, published November 2022, and in the ERS Amber Waves article Study Examines How and Where U.S. Cow-Calf Operations Use Rotational Grazing, published in November 2022.
Thursday, January 26, 2023
Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent in 2022, more than three times the rate in 2021 (3.5 percent) and much faster than the 2.0-percent historical annual average from 2002 to 2021. Of the food categories depicted in the chart, all except beef and veal grew faster in 2022 than in 2021. In 2022, price increases surpassed 10 percent for food at home and for nine food categories. Egg prices grew at the fastest rate (32.2 percent) after an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) throughout 2022. Prices for fats and oils increased by 18.5 percent, largely because of higher dairy and oilseed prices. Prices also rose for poultry (14.6 percent) and other meats (14.2 percent). Elevated prices for wholesale flour—attributed to the conflict in Ukraine and rising fertilizer prices—and eggs contributed to a 13.0-percent price increase for cereals and bakery products. Prices for beef and veal (5.3 percent), fresh vegetables (7.0 percent), and fresh fruits (7.9 percent) rose more slowly, but all categories exceeded their historical averages. Food prices grew more quickly than the overall rate of inflation (8.0 percent), as the HPAI outbreak, the Ukraine conflict, and economy-wide inflationary pressures contributed specifically to rising food prices. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project food-at-home prices will increase 8.0 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 4.5 to 11.7 percent. ERS tracks aggregate food category prices and publishes price forecasts in the monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 25, 2023.
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
The U.S. food retail sector experienced substantial consolidation and structural change over the last three decades. Market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), is a measure of the extent to which market shares are concentrated between firms of the retail food sector at the national, State, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and county levels in the United States. This analysis includes all establishments with a significant portion of food sales that are likely substitutes for each other: supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) and warehouse clubs and supercenters. Although the national market is less concentrated than the average State level, according to the HHI, national market concentration increased substantially between 1990 and 2019 (458 percent). In comparison, average county-level market concentration has remained relatively constant over the past 30 years, increasing only 94 percent. While national measures provide information about larger trends, trends in localized markets are likely more relevant for consumers, food-retail competitors, and policymakers. This chart was drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service economic research report A Disaggregated View of Market Concentration in the Food Retail Industry, which uses data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) to calculate and examine the market conditions of food retailing from 1990 to 2019. The report published in January 2023.
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
U.S. farm cash receipts from animals and animal products totaled $195.8 billion in 2021, led by receipts for cattle and calves at $72.9 billion (37 percent). Poultry and egg products made up the next largest share of 2021 cash receipts at $46.1 billion (24 percent), followed by dairy at $41.8 billion (21 percent), hogs at $28.0 billion (14 percent), and other animals and animal products at $7.0 billion (4 percent). As part of its Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, each year in late August or early September, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) releases estimates of the prior year’s farm sector cash receipts from agricultural commodity sales. These data include cash receipt estimates by type of commodity, which can help in understanding the U.S. farm sector. The estimates may be revised as new information becomes available. Additional information and analysis are on the ERS Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page, updated December 1, 2022.
Monday, January 23, 2023
Agriculture, food, and related industries contributed roughly $1.3 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, a 5.4-percent share. The output of U.S. farms contributed $164.7 billion of this total—about 0.7 percent of U.S. GDP. Farming’s overall contribution to GDP is larger than 0.7 percent because sectors related to agriculture rely on inputs produced on farms, also adding value to the Nation’s economy. Sectors related to agriculture include food and beverage manufacturing; food and beverage stores; food services and eating or drinking places; textiles, apparel, and leather products; and forestry and fishing. This chart also appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service Charting the Essentials data product, updated in January 2023.
Thursday, January 19, 2023
At the beginning of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, U.S. households shifted away from buying foods at restaurants and other food service venues to food-at-home (FAH) outlets such as grocery stores and other retail establishments. Overall, the share of the household food and alcohol budget spent on FAH increased 7.8 percentage points between the pre-pandemic (2016–19) level and 2020. The largest contributions to this change were the “other FAH” category (including desserts, prepared meals and salads, and chips and savory snacks), which increased 2.6 percentage points, and protein foods (red meat, poultry, eggs, and fish and seafood), which increased 1.5 percentage points. Even though those are the subgroups with the largest changes for household food and alcohol spending, the budget shares for fruits and vegetables showed the fastest growth from 2016–19 to 2020. The share of the average household food and alcohol budget spent on vegetables contributed only 1.2 percentage points to the total but increased 23 percent. The share spent on fruits increased 19 percent (from 4.7 to 5.6 percent). Increases in the share spent on grains, nonalcoholic beverages, and fats and oils also contributed to the overall FAH percentage point gain, but their growth during that period was relatively small. The faster growth of the fruit and vegetable shares in the food and alcohol budget indicates a slight shifting of diets to more produce during the first year of the pandemic. This chart was drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report COVID-10 Working Paper: Consumer Food Spending Changes During the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
The value of U.S. agricultural imports (adjusted for inflation) grew an average of 4 percent a year between fiscal years 2012 and 2022 (October to September). Over that time, total U.S. agricultural imports rose from $139 billion to $194 billion, with growth concentrated in select commodity groups. Horticultural products grew at a rate of 6 percent a year during the period and, at $97.2 billion in value in 2022, accounted for 65 percent of the total growth in imports. Within the broad horticultural products group, fresh fruits were the largest contributor at $17.9 billion, growing at an annual rate of 9 percent over the period and accounting for 15 percent of total import growth. Key commodities in the fresh fruit group include avocados, berries, and citrus, which the United States imports mostly from Latin American countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Peru. Growth in demand for horticultural products, including fresh fruits, largely has been driven by consumer desire for year-round supply, changing consumer preferences, and foreign production that is increasingly competitive with domestically grown produce. Imports of the commodity groups livestock and meats, grains and feeds, and oilseeds and products, which together were about 60 percent of the value of horticultural product imports in 2012, each also grew at about 6 percent per year, contributing to a total of about 40 percent of the growth from 2012 to 2022. Sugar and tropical products, dairy and products, and other categories had below average growth rates and contributed less to agricultural import growth. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, November 2022.
Tuesday, January 17, 2023
Over the last two decades, the strongest rural job gains were in smaller industries that tend to employ high-skill workers. The highest growth was in the real estate industry, which includes lessors of nonresidential buildings, real estate agents, brokers and property managers, and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing, as identified by the U.S. Census Bureau’s North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Also showing rapid growth was the administrative services industry, which includes office administration, facilities support, business support services, security services, conventions and trade shows, and waste management and treatment. Other rural industries that grew over the past two decades were health care and social assistance; professional, scientific, and technical services; educational services; and finance and insurance. The growth of these industries represented a shift in rural production toward industries that employ higher shares of high-skill workers. Consistent with this shift, the percent of rural college-educated workers increased from 21.5 percent in 2012 to 23.8 percent in 2019, although these rates have remained lower than the share of college-educated urban workers (38 percent in 2019). The six largest rural industries in terms of employment during this period were health care and social assistance; accommodation and food services; government; retail; agriculture; and manufacturing. Only the health and social assistance industry was at the same time one of the fastest-growing rural industries and one of the six largest rural industries in terms of employment. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Rural America at a Glance: 2022 Edition, published in November 2022.
Thursday, January 12, 2023
From 2015 to 2021, the median total household income for commercial U.S. farms rose an estimated 16 percent, to $278,339 from $238,994. Commercial farms earn more than $350,000 gross cash farm income regardless of the principal operator’s occupation. In 2021, the median total household income for commercial farms remained above the median income of $75,201 for all U.S. households. Farm households rely on a combination of on-farm and off-farm sources of income. On-farm income is determined by farm costs and returns that vary from year to year, and in any given year a majority of farm households report negative farm income. Off-farm sources—including wages, nonfarm business earnings, dividends, and transfers—are the main contributor to household income for most farm households. Because households operating commercial farms rely mostly on on-farm sources of income, they experience the largest shocks in household income when farm sector income rises or falls. This chart uses data from the new USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) webtool, released in December 2022, as shown through the ARMS Farm Financial and Crop Production Practices data product.
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)—a disease infecting birds and poultry—struck egg-laying hens throughout 2022. As a result of recurrent outbreaks, U.S. egg inventories were 29 percent lower in the final week of December 2022 than at the beginning of the year. By the end of December, more than 43 million egg-laying hens were lost to the disease itself or to depopulation since the outbreak began in February 2022. Losses were spread across two waves: from February to June (30.7 million hens) and from September to December (12.6 million hens). On constrained supplies, wholesale egg prices (the prices retailers pay to producers) were elevated throughout the year. The HPAI recurrences in the fall further constrained egg inventories that had not recovered from the spring wave. Moreover, the latest outbreak wave came at a point when the industry seasonally adjusts the egg-laying flocks to meet the increasing demand for eggs associated with the winter holiday season. Lower-than-usual shell egg inventories near the end of the year, combined with increased demand stemming from the holiday baking season, resulted in several successive weeks of record high egg prices. The average shell-egg price was 267 percent higher during the week leading up to Christmas than at the beginning of the year and 210 percent higher than the same time a year earlier. During the last week of 2022, inventory sizes started to rise, and prices fell. Going forward, wholesale prices are expected to decrease as the industry moves past the holiday season and continues rebuilding its egg-laying flocks. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: December 2022.
Tuesday, January 10, 2023
In 2021, 33.6 cents of an average dollar spent on domestically produced food went to foodservice establishments, which include restaurants and other food-away-from-home outlets. At more than one-third of the 2021 food dollar, the foodservice share increased 3.5 cents over 2020 to reach its highest value in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Dollar Series. The share for food services does not include expenses paid to other industry groups, such as food, energy, and financial services. The shares for energy, advertising, finance and insurance, and legal and accounting changed less than 0.1 cent from their 2020 values, while the declines among remaining industry group shares ranged from 0.1 cent lower (packaging) to 1.0 cent lower (food processing). Annual shifts in the food dollar shares between industry groups occur for a variety of reasons, including changes in the mix of foods consumers buy, costs of materials, ingredients, and other inputs, as well as changes in the balance of food at home and away from home. The 2021 changes in the industry group shares reflect shifts toward pre-pandemic trends that were interrupted when consumers spent more on food-at-home during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The industry group shares food dollar chart is available for 1993 to 2021 and can be found in ERS’s Food Dollar Series data product, updated November 17, 2022.
Monday, January 9, 2023
For most U.S. farm households, off-farm sources are the main sources of income. In 2021, earnings from farming accounted for an estimated 23 percent of the average income of farm operator households. Of the off-farm income, 57 percent came from wages earned by farm operators and their spouses. The rest is income from other nonfarm businesses, interest and dividends, transfers, and other miscellaneous nonfarm sources (43 percent). Transfer income, such as retirement benefits, makes up 25 percent of off-farm income, with most coming from public sources. For farm households, off-farm income can help manage risks associated with farm income variability. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s topic page Farm Household Well-being, reflecting data released December 1, 2022.
Thursday, January 5, 2023
Between 2000 and 2022, the real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wage rate of hired farm workers increased by 28 percent. Growth in the average wage rate of hired farm workers during that period outpaced hourly wage growth of nonfarm workers by 11 percentage points. Further, the gap between real farm wages (which tend to be lower) and real nonfarm wages had narrowed. In 2011, the hourly wage of farm workers was 57 percent of the nonfarm wage rate; by 2021 this had increased to 63 percent. Increases in farm workers’ wages have been observed across the entire U.S. agricultural sector, suggesting the tightening of farm labor markets. The U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable industry is more exposed to rising wages because produce cultivation tends to be labor-intensive and labor costs represent a significant share of production expenses. Agricultural producers are managing tight labor markets by hiring foreign farm workers, reducing labor needs through mechanization, or in some cases, decreasing production of labor-intensive crops such as cantaloupe, fresh field-grown tomatoes, iceberg lettuce, and raisin grapes. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s report Adjusting to Higher Labor Costs in Selected U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Industries, published in August 2022.
Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Human movements between places vary considerably across space, so their contribution to the spread of COVID-19 also varied spatially. For instance, some rural communities have long histories as recreation or tourist destinations and more established migration connections to larger cities. In examining county-to-county migration patterns, researchers organized nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties into four equal groups, or quartiles, based on the rate at which people moved to or from metropolitan (metro) counties. The counties in the lowest quartile (lightest blue on the map) have the weakest migration connections with metro regions, meaning few people move back and forth proportionately. Remote counties far from any metro region, such as in the central and northern Great Plains, fall in the lowest quartile. Those counties in the fourth quartile (darkest blue) have the strongest migration connectivity and are typically adjacent to metro centers, such as southern New Hampshire, along the Front Range in Colorado, and in parts of Texas adjacent to Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio. However, some very remote areas have high migration ties to metro counties, such as areas of Wyoming, Idaho, and North Dakota. These are places that have unique economic conditions that tie them to urban areas. Western North Dakota had a burgeoning energy sector from 2012 to 2016 (when these migration flows were measured), and there are established amenity destinations in the Colorado Rockies; Sun Valley, Idaho; Jackson, Wyoming; and along the Washington and Oregon coasts. Nonmetro counties with higher migration connectivity to metro areas were more likely to experience outbreaks of COVID-19 during the first few weeks and months of the pandemic compared with less-connected nonmetro counties. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report COVID-19 Working Paper: Migration, Local Mobility, and the Spread of COVID-19 in Rural America, published in November 2022.