Overview

Long-Term Agricultural Baseline Projections

USDA's long-term agricultural projections, also referred to as 'baseline" projections, provide a scenario for the U.S. farm sector and global trade for the next 10 years. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of each sector—such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for global long-term economic growth, consumption, and trade; and future price trends and trade flows of major farm commodities.

Economic Research Service (ERS) economists participate in the long-term projections analysis and lead the preparation of the USDA long-term projections report. Other USDA offices and agencies involved in the process include: the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Farm Programs and Conservation Business Center, the Foreign Agricultural Service, the Office of the Chief Economist, the Office of Budget and Program Analysis, the Risk Management Agency, the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

ERS' Outputs on Agricultural Projections

USDA agricultural projections are updated annually following the October release of USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. USDA and ERS provide multiple annual outputs covering each year’s projections:  

  • U.S. Agricultural Projections: Early release tables containing new U.S. farm sector projections, and U.S. and global macroeconomic assumptions, are available in early November each year—following the October WASDE—and the full set of tables are published the following February. The latest projections for the U.S. farm sector, U.S. and global macroeconomic projections, and international trade projections for the next 10 years, are available through the Mann Library.
  • ERS Agricultural Baseline Database: Updated annually in early November, this custom-query database provides access to current and historical 10-year U.S. farm sector projections, consistent with USDA's annual early release tables and USDA Agricultural Projections Reports. November updates include an additional year of projections for major U.S. field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton) and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy).  Projections from past years are also available.
  • ERS U.S. Agricultural Baseline Data Visualization: Updated annually in November, to include a new year of projections, this data product provides visual access to the current U.S. farm sector projections. You can access the data from the ERS Agricultural Baseline Database page.
  • USDA Agricultural Projections Report: Released in February each year, this comprehensive report includes analysis of U.S. and macroeconomic projections released the previous November. The report also includes data and analysis of additional farm sector indicators—such as farm income, specialty crops, aggregate U.S. trade, and international trade projections for the next 10 years. See the full set of current and previous USDA Agricultural Projections reports and tables here.

  • International Baseline Data: These data files are updated each spring and provide supply, demand, and trade projections for major agricultural commodities for selected countries. The data in these files are consistent with the USDA Agricultural Projections report released in February. The files provide additional foreign country detail supporting the annual 10-year USDA projections.