Agricultural Baseline Projections

USDA's long-term agricultural projections provide a scenario for the farm sector for the next 10 years. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for global long-term economic growth, consumption, and trade; and future price trends, trade flows, and U.S. exports of major farm commodities.

ERS economists participate in the long-term projections analysis and lead the preparation of the USDA long-term projections report. Other USDA offices and agencies involved in the long-term agricultural projections process include the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Farm Service Agency, the Foreign Agricultural Service, the Office of the Chief Economist, the Office of Budget and Program Analysis, the Risk Management Agency, the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

ERS' Outputs on Agricultural Baseline Projections

ERS provides three annual outputs covering agricultural baseline projections:  

  • The Agricultural Baseline Projections Report, released in February each year, provides projections for the farm sector for the next 10 years. See the most recent report USDA Agricultural Projections to 2027. Previous Baseline Projections reports are available here
  • The Agricultural Baseline Database provides 10-year projections from USDA's annual long-term projections report, which is published in February each year. The database covers projections for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton) and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy), starting with the February 2000 report.
  • International Baseline Projections data indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural commodities for selected countries. These projections provide foreign country detail supporting the annual USDA agricultural baseline, which provides longrun, 10-year projections.