ERS Charts of Note

Monday, September 23, 2024

The number of farms with a Hispanic operator is about 84,000, a decline of about 2,800 farms since the last Census of Agriculture in 2017. A farm is defined as Hispanic-operated if at least one producer associated with it identifies as Spanish, Hispanic or Latino. Hispanic operators produced agricultural products on 37 million acres in 2022, which represents 4.2 percent of all U.S. land in farms. The total land in farms with Hispanic operators increased by 32 percent from 2002 to 2022. However, the average size for these farms has remained relatively stable at 441 acres in 2022, which is similar to the average farm size of 463 acres for all U.S. farms. For more details from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, see the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Census of Agriculture website. For more information on Hispanic farmers, see USDA, Economic Research Service’s publication An Overview of Farms Operated by Socially Disadvantaged, Women, and Limited Resource Farmers and Ranchers in the United States, February 2024.

Thursday, September 5, 2024

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, will decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) to $154.1 billion in 2024. This would come after an NCFI decrease of $52.9 billion (23.7 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $223.3 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $10.2 billion (6.8 percent) to $140.0 billion in 2024. This reduction follows a drop of $43.3 billion (22.4 percent) in NFI in 2023 from an all-time high of $193.5 billion in 2022 (after adjusting for inflation). Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Despite these declines, if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would stay above their respective 2004–23 averages in 2024. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $23.3 billion (4.3 percent) to $516.5 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. However, a $16.2 billion (3.4 percent) reduction in production expenses is expected to moderate the overall decline. Find additional information and analysis on the ERS Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page, reflecting data released on September 5, 2024.

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

A quarter of all U.S. farm operations participated in USDA direct payment programs in 2022, meaning that they received at least some payment directly from USDA (no intermediaries involved). Data from the 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture show the share of operations that received some Federal payments (at a county level) were concentrated in the central United States. Conducted every 5 years by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the most recent census occurred during a year of historically high net farm income so commodity safety net programs—in place to make payments when prices or revenues are low—were not triggered for many commodities. Comparison with 2017 Census of Agriculture shows participation rates in Southwestern and Southern Great Plains counties, while not especially higher in 2022, were higher than those recorded in previous censuses. Meanwhile, participation in many Midwestern counties was lower than in previous censuses. Participation rates are based on receipt of direct payments and do not include crop insurance or loan program participation. Based on data from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, total payments in 2022 were $16.47 billion, more than 14 percent higher after adjusting for inflation than the $14.4 billion recorded in 2017. More than 70 percent of all USDA direct payments disbursed in 2022 were from supplemental and ad hoc relief for wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, winter storms, and other eligible disasters. This Chart of Note is drawn from the NASS 2022 Census of Agriculture. For more information about the farm sector and USDA programs, see the ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product and the ERS Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast topic page.

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Commercial banks and the Farm Credit System together held about 80 percent of farm real estate debt during the last 11 years, making them the primary lenders to the U.S. agricultural sector. In 2022, the Farm Credit System—a nationwide network of borrower-owned lending institutions and specialized service organizations—provided almost half of all the real estate loans made to the sector, and commercial banks provided 32 percent of agricultural real estate loans. USDA’s Farm Service Agency provides loans directly to producers and in 2022 accounted for less than 4 percent of real estate loans. Other lenders include life insurance companies (7 percent), individuals and others (5 percent), and storage facility loans (less than 1 percent). Farmer Mac, which, like the Farm Credit System, is a Government-sponsored enterprise created by Congress to bring capital to agricultural markets, accounted for about 3 percent of total loans. This chart updates information in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Debt Use by U.S. Farm Businesses, 2012–2021, published in June 2024.

Friday, July 19, 2024

Errata: On July 22, 2024, the note that accompanied the chart was revised to improve clarity. No text or data were affected.

The USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) 2022 Census of Agriculture shows that producer expenditures on cash rents were heavily concentrated in the upper Midwest, the northern Great Plains, and California’s Central Valley. In total, producers spent $27.3 billion on cash rent expenses in 2022, or 6.4 percent of total production expenses. This represents a nearly 10-percent increase in cash rents from the 2017 Agricultural Census, after adjusting for inflation. Many farmers rent farmland from landowners for a cash payment. This cash rent reflects the economic returns to land from farming. Cash rent per acre of land is influenced by several factors, such as cash receipts, government payments, land quality, and financing constraints. For more information, see the NASS 2022 Census of Agriculture website. For more information on how farmland cash rental rates vary across regions, see the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Land Use, Land Value & Tenure topic page. See also the NASS publication Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Lands and the ERS report Farmland Values, Land Ownership, and Returns to Farmland, 2000-2016.

Monday, July 8, 2024

Not all farms use debt to finance their operations, but of those that do, the majority used commercial banks. Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service examined direct loans reported from five different sources in 2022: the Farm Credit System, USDA Farm Service Agency, commercial banks, trade credit, and other lenders. More than half of each farm type reported loans owed to a commercial bank. Among borrowers, small family farms using debt had the highest proportion receiving financing through other lenders (28 percent). Among all the lending sources, the Farm Service Agency serviced between 8 and 10 percent of farms with loans, making it the least likely to provide a direct loan. Not reflected, however, are actions by the Farm Service Agency to provide a loan guarantee for some of those operations reporting loans from commercial banks and the Farm Credit System. This chart appears in America’s Farms and Ranches at a Glance, published December 2023.

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Created in 1916, the Federal estate tax is a tax on the transfer of property to a person’s heirs upon death. In 2023, the Federal estate tax exemption amount was $12.92 million per person, and the Federal estate tax rate was 40 percent. By law, the estate of a person who owns assets above the exemption amount at death must file a Federal estate tax return. However, only returns that have an estate above the exemption after deductions for expenses, debts, and bequests will pay Federal estate tax. Researchers from USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimate that 39,988 estates would have been created from principal operator deaths in 2023. ERS forecasts that 330 (about 0.8 percent) of those estates would have been required to file an estate tax return, and 89 (about 0.2 percent) would likely have owed Federal estate tax. Total Federal estate tax liabilities from the 89 farm estates owing taxes are forecast to be $473 million in 2023. The exemption amount increased to $13.61 million per person in 2024, because of an annual inflation adjustment. This chart appears in the ERS topic page Federal Estate Taxes, published in April 2024.

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

The United States and Brazil compete to satisfy the global demand for soybeans. Soybean exports contribute billions of dollars to the U.S. economy each year even as Brazil's exports have gradually eroded the U.S. share of the global soybean market. Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) compared factors affecting the two countries’ competitiveness, including costs of both production and marketing. They determined that, on average, production costs per acre for soybeans in Brazil were 22.5 percent lower than U.S. costs from 2010/11–2021/22. Lower capital and land costs accounted for most of this difference. Brazil’s farmers largely hire out services to provide equipment and labor for field operations, whereas U.S. farmers tend to own their machinery. Land costs were also higher in the United States, where one crop is typically harvested per marketing year. Brazil’s abundant land resources and its capacity to grow two crops per year increase both the output and revenue generated per unit of land. On aggregate, U.S. costs to produce an acre of soybeans increased 2.6 percent annually from 2010/11–2021/22, while Brazil’s costs increased 0.5 percent, not adjusting for inflation. Factors driving the increase in U.S. costs per acre were higher fertilizer, pesticide, machinery, repair, and land costs. In Brazil, rising fertilizer and pesticide costs represented the bulk of the increase. In both countries, transportation of soybeans to ports adds to the cost of soybeans paid by overseas buyers. However, Brazil’s investments in overland transportation infrastructure have reduced the relative marketing cost for exporting soybeans. Average inland transport costs per metric ton in 2017/18–2021/22 in Brazil decreased by 21.4 percent compared with 2008/09–2012/13. More information can be found in the ERS report Soybean Production, Marketing Costs, and Export Competitiveness in Brazil and the United States, December 2023.

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

The recently released USDA Census of Agriculture shows interest payments on farm debt in 2022 were heavily concentrated in the upper Midwest, northern Great Plains, and California’s Central Valley. Conducted every 5 years by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the census includes producer responses to questions about production expenses for their farms and ranches, including how much interest they paid on debt. Interest expenditures are a good indicator for where agricultural operations hold debt across the country. In 2022, producers spent $13.4 billion on interest payments, an 8.1-percent real decline from the 2017 Agricultural Census, even though real total farm debt rose 7.8 percent from $390.4 billion to $420.4 billion. Interest rates had dropped throughout most of 2020 and 2021 and were still relatively low during the 2022 calendar year, only beginning to rise in the second quarter of 2022. For more details from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, see the NASS Agricultural Census website. For more on financial sectors and their relationship with agriculture, see the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product. See also Increases in U.S. Farm Debt and Interest Expenses Minimally Affect Sector’s Financial Position in the Short-Term, as Measured by Liquidity and Solvency Ratios, published in August 2023 in ERS’s Amber Waves magazine.

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Data from the recently released 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture show that farms specializing in specialty crops accounted for 10 percent of all farm operations. Specialty crop operations include those that primarily grow vegetables and melons, fruit and tree nuts, and greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture products, and are responsible for $84 billion in cash receipts (15 percent of the U.S. total). For 127 counties (or county equivalents), specialty crop farms accounted for more than 40 percent of all farms within the county. Most of these counties are in States along the west and east coasts (including Alaska and Hawaii) and in or near metropolitan areas. Half of the counties with the highest concentration of farms primarily engaged in growing specialty crops were in California, New York, Florida, and New Jersey. Almost all (95 percent) of U.S. counties with farms as well as every State had at least one farm growing primarily specialty crops. This chart was drawn from data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s website. For more information on cash receipts by State and commodity, including specialty crop commodities, see USDA, Economic Research Service’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product.

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Errata: On March 25, 2024, the map legend was revised to show that areas in yellow without dots represent direct sales of less than $2.5 million.

The Census of Agriculture reports data on local or regionally branded food sold directly to retail outlets, institutions (like schools), intermediate markets (like food hubs), and consumers (via outlets such as farmers markets). These local-food sales channels provide opportunities for farmers to explore revenue streams beyond traditional wholesale markets. Data from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, released in February 2024, show producers sold $17.5 billion in food, including both unprocessed and processed (value-added) food, through direct marketing channels. That was a 25-percent increase (after adjusting for inflation) since the 2017 Census of Agriculture and an annual real growth rate of 4.6 percent. The increase from 2017 was driven by a surge in food sold directly to retail outlets, institutions, and intermediate markets. From 2017 to 2022, sales through these three direct-sales channels increased 33.2 percent (adjusted for inflation) to $14.2 billion, and the number of operations selling through them more than doubled to 60,332. Direct-to-consumer sales through farmers markets, on-farm stores or stands, u-pick operations, community supported agriculture (CSA), and online marketplaces remained consistent with those in 2017 after adjusting for inflation. However, the number of farm operations (116,617) selling directly to consumers in 2022 was 10.3 percent less than in 2017. As was the case in 2017, direct food sales continue to be concentrated along the West Coast, particularly in California (37.7 percent of direct sales), and in the Northeast. Most counties with high volumes of direct sales are in or around metropolitan areas, whose populations provide a large customer base for producers. This chart is based on data obtained from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s 2022 Census of Agriculture. For more on direct food sales, see the USDA, Economic Research Service report Marketing Practices and Financial Performance of Local Food Producers: A Comparison of Beginning and Experienced Farmers, published in 2021.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts that U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, will decrease by $42.2 billion (25.8 percent) to $121.7 billion in 2024 in inflation-adjusted dollars. This is after NCFI decreased in 2023 by a forecast $50.2 billion to $163.9 billion. Net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $43.1 billion (27.1 percent) to $116.1 billion from 2023 to 2024. NFI is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. The forecasted 2024 NFI decrease follows a decrease of $37.2 billion from 2022 to $159.2 billion in 2023. These decreases are from record levels in 2022, and if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would fall below their respective 2003–22 averages in 2024. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $32.2 billion (6.2 percent) to $485.5 billion in 2024. During the same period, production expenses are expected to increase by $7.2 billion (1.6 percent) to $455.1 billion in 2024. Also, total commodity insurance indemnity payments are forecast to fall by $1.5 billion (6.6 percent) in 2024, and direct Government payments to farmers are projected to fall by $2.2 billion (17.7 percent) from 2023 levels to $10.2 billion in 2024. Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, ERS topic page for Farm Sector Income and Finances, reflecting data released on February 7, 2024.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Large-scale family farms accounted for a majority of the value of commodity production in 2022, including cash grains and soybeans (51 percent), hogs (56 percent), cotton (65 percent), specialty crops (65 percent), and dairy (76 percent). On the other hand, small family farms accounted for 3 percent of the value of production for dairy, 4 percent for cotton, 7 percent for specialty crops, and 26 percent for beef, but they produced the majority of hay (53 percent) and 45 percent of poultry and eggs. The value of production by nonfamily farms ranged from 5 percent for both hay production and poultry and eggs production to 19 percent for specialty crop production. This chart uses data appearing in America’s Farms and Ranches at a Glance, published December 2023.

Thursday, November 30, 2023

The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI) to decrease by $49.2 billion (23.8 percent) from 2022 to $157.9 billion in 2023. Similarly, U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to fall by $37.9 billion (20.0 percent) from 2022 to $151.1 billion in 2023. NCFI is calculated as gross cash income minus cash expenses. NFI is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. The projected decreases in 2023 come after both NCFI and NFI reached all-time highs in 2022 of $207.1 billion and $188.9 billion, respectively. For 2023, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $43.0 billion (7.8 percent) from 2022 to $509.6 billion in 2023. This includes forecasted declines in milk, corn, and broiler receipts. Total production expenses are expected to remain relatively stable in 2022, increasing by $0.6 billion (0.1 percent) to $443.4 billion in 2023. However, individual expense items are expected to vary, with interest expenses forecast to increase in 2023, while spending on fertilizer/lime/soil conditioner and feed is expected to decrease. Finally, direct Government payments to farmers are forecast to fall $4.0 billion (24.8 percent) lower in 2023 to $12.1 billion because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. Find additional information and analysis on the ERS topic page Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast, reflecting data released on November 30, 2023.

Thursday, October 19, 2023

In 2020, two rounds of Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payments provided $23.5 billion to U.S. farmers and ranchers who faced sales losses, lower prices, or increased production and marketing costs associated with the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The CFAP was USDA’s primary pandemic assistance program. According to the USDA, Economic Research Service data product Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, producers in nine States received more than a billion dollars each in estimated CFAP payments in 2020. Those States were: Iowa ($2.1 billion), California ($1.8 billion), Nebraska ($1.6 billion), Minnesota ($1.4 billion), Texas ($1.3 billion), Illinois ($1.3 billion), Kansas ($1.1 billion), Wisconsin ($1.0 billion), and South Dakota ($1.0 billion). In calendar year 2020, direct Federal payments to U.S. farmers and ranchers totaled $45.6 billion. Therefore, the payments made from CFAP were more than half of all direct government payments made that year. CFAP continued to make payments to U.S. producers and ranchers in 2021. This chart updates information that appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service report COVID-19 Working Paper: Distribution and Examination of Coronavirus Food Assistance Program Payments and Forgivable Paycheck Protection Program Loans at the State Level in 2020, published August 2023.

Thursday, August 31, 2023

The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI) to decrease by $60.5 billion (28.9 percent) from 2022 to $148.6 billion in 2023. Similarly, U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to fall by $48.0 billion (25.4 percent) from 2022 to $141.3 billion in 2023. NCFI is calculated as gross cash income minus cash expenses. NFI is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. The projected decreases in 2023 come after both NCFI and NFI reached all-time highs in 2022. NCFI reached $209.1 billion in 2022, and NFI reached $189.3 billion. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $41.4 billion (7.5 percent) from 2022 to $513.6 billion in 2023. This includes forecasted declines of $13.9 billion (23.6 percent) in milk receipts and $11.6 billion (12.6 percent) in corn receipts. In addition, production expenses are expected to increase by $14.8 billion (3.3 percent) to $458.0 billion in 2023. Finally, direct Government payments to farmers are projected to fall by $3.5 billion (21.6 percent) from 2022 to $12.6 billion in 2023, because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, ERS’ topic page Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast, reflecting data released on August 31, 2023.

Monday, June 26, 2023

In 2021, more than 34 percent of the 1.96 million U.S. family farms received Government payments through four types of programs: countercyclical, marketing loan, conservation, and other programs. These Government payments totaled $14.3 billion based on data from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Economists with USDA’s Economic Research Service examined three groupings (commercial, intermediate, residence) of family farms to find that about 75 percent of commercial family farms—those with $350,000 or more in gross cash farm income (GCFI)—received Government payments. For intermediate family farms—those with less than $350,000 in GCFI and a principal operator whose primary occupation is farming—31 percent received Government payments. Finally, Government payments went to 29 percent of residence family farms, defined as those with less than $350,000 in GCFI and where the principal operator is retired from farming or has a primary occupation other than farming. Overall, on average, commercial farms received $66,314, intermediate farms received $12,794, and residence farms received $8,354 in Government payments in 2021. This chart is drawn from data in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s ARMS Farm Financial and Crop Production Practices data product and in the May 2023 Amber Waves article Commercial Farms Led in Government Payments in 2021. For more information on Federal programs, visit the Farm & Commodity Policy topic page.

Monday, May 22, 2023

Created in 1916, the Federal estate tax is a tax on the transfer of property to a person’s heirs upon death. In 2022, the Federal estate tax exemption amount was $12.06 million per person and the federal estate tax rate was 40 percent. Under the present law, the estate of a person who owns assets above the exemption amount at death must file a Federal estate tax return. However, only returns that have an estate above the exemption after deductions for expenses, debts, and bequests will pay Federal estate tax. Researchers from USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimate that in 2022, 39,534 estates were created from principal operator deaths. Of those estates, ERS forecasts that 305 (0.77 percent) will be required to file an estate tax return, and a further 87 (0.22 percent) will likely owe Federal estate tax. Total Federal estate tax liabilities from the 87 farm estates owing taxes are forecast to be $566 million in 2022. The exemption amount was increased to $12.92 million per person in 2023. This chart appears in the ERS Topic Page, Federal Estate Taxes, published in April 2023.

Monday, May 8, 2023

After reaching recent highs in 2021 and 2022, the average net cash income (gross cash income minus cash expenses) of U.S. farm businesses is expected to decline by 18 percent in 2023 compared with 2022. Farm businesses across the country are forecast to see higher production expenses, lower cash receipts, and lower Government payments in 2023, resulting in lower expected average net cash farm income. However, this overall decline will vary considerably across the country, driven primarily by the commodities produced in each resource region. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) uses resource regions to depict the geographic specialization in production of U.S. commodities. ERS defines farm businesses as the operations with gross cash farm income of at least $350,000 or smaller operations in which farming is reported as the operator’s primary occupation, which includes just over half of all U.S. farms. Farm businesses in the Northern Crescent region, which leads the Nation in dairy production, are forecast to see the largest average percentage decrease (30 percent), while those in the Mississippi Portal, which leads the Nation in rice production, are forecast to see the smallest percent decrease (9 percent). Find additional information and analysis on the ERS topic page Farm Business Income, reflecting data released on February 7, 2023. For more details on the ERS Farm Resource Regions, see Agricultural Income and Finance Situation and Outlook: 2021 Edition.

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

In 2022, the Chapter 12 bankruptcy rate reached the lowest level in nearly two decades, 0.78 bankruptcies per 10,000 farms. Under Chapter 12 bankruptcy, a financially distressed family farmer can propose and carry out a plan to repay their debts fully or partially, and the total number of these bankruptcies is an indicator of financial stress in the farm sector. In 2003, the annual bankruptcy rate reached a high of 3.3 per 10,000 farms and then declined to a low of 0.5 per 10,000 farms in 2004. After 2010, the bankruptcy rate declined until 2014 but started to increase again in 2015 with another peak in 2019 (2.9 bankruptcies per 10,000 farms). Since then, bankruptcies have declined to the lowest level in two decades after 2004. In 2022, 0.78 farms per 10,000 filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy, almost two-thirds lower (61.0 percent) than the 10-year annual average of 2.00 bankruptcies per 10,000 farms. Based on the data from U.S. courts, the number of bankruptcies not only declined nationally, but also in the major agricultural States. When examining the 10-year average bankruptcy rate (2013–22) for major agricultural States, Wisconsin had the highest rate at 5.66 per 10,000 farms, followed by Nebraska and Kansas. Texas had the lowest average bankruptcy rate among the top 10 agricultural States at 0.77 per 10,000 farms. This chart uses data from U.S. courts and the USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) to update information in Agricultural Income and Finance Situation and Outlook: 2021 Edition and the Amber Waves article, Chapter 12 Bankruptcy Rates Have Increased in Most Agricultural States, published in November 2021.