Farm sector profits forecast to fall in 2023 from record highs in 2022

The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI) to decrease by $60.5 billion (28.9 percent) from 2022 to $148.6 billion in 2023. Similarly, U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to fall by $48.0 billion (25.4 percent) from 2022 to $141.3 billion in 2023. NCFI is calculated as gross cash income minus cash expenses. NFI is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. The projected decreases in 2023 come after both NCFI and NFI reached all-time highs in 2022. NCFI reached $209.1 billion in 2022, and NFI reached $189.3 billion. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $41.4 billion (7.5 percent) from 2022 to $513.6 billion in 2023. This includes forecasted declines of $13.9 billion (23.6 percent) in milk receipts and $11.6 billion (12.6 percent) in corn receipts. In addition, production expenses are expected to increase by $14.8 billion (3.3 percent) to $458.0 billion in 2023. Finally, direct Government payments to farmers are projected to fall by $3.5 billion (21.6 percent) from 2022 to $12.6 billion in 2023, because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, ERS’ topic page Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast, reflecting data released on August 31, 2023.

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