ERS Charts of Note
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Tuesday, April 14, 2015
During the last decades of the USSR, the livestock sector grew substantially as the state heavily subsidized both the production and consumption of livestock goods. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the livestock sectors of Russia, Ukraine, and other countries of the former USSR contracted. By the end of the 1990s, both animal inventories and meat production were half (or even less) than at the start of the decade, as these countries’ governments could no longer afford the large subsidies provided to the sector during the Soviet period. Beginning in 2000, the livestock sector in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan began to rebound, though output has not yet reached pre-reform levels. As gross domestic product (GDP) began to rise the governments in these countries had the financial resources to restore some of the subsidies to the sector. Russia also protected the sector with a system of tariff rate quotas on meat imports imposed in 2003. In addition, large modern livestock producers are increasing the efficiency and productivity of operations. The poultry and pork industries have grown, but the beef industry has yet to experience a turnaround. This chart is from the report, Rising Grain Exports by the Former Soviet Union Region: Causes and Outlook.
Friday, April 3, 2015
U.S. net textile and apparel fiber imports rose for a second consecutive calendar year in 2014 to their highest level in 4 years. Net imports reached approximately 14.5 billion raw-fiber-equivalent pounds in 2014, compared with 13.9 billion pounds in 2013 and a record 15.1 billion pounds in 2007. In 2014, total fiber product imports grew 3 percent to their highest since 2010, while exports rose 1 percent to their highest level since 2008. U.S. net imports consist largely of cotton and manmade fiber products, but cotton’s share has declined in recent years due to the steady growth in the use of manmade fibers, due in part to their relative price advantage. In 2014, cotton textile and apparel products accounted for about 46 percent of the total, while manmade fibers contributed 47 percent. By comparison, just 5 years ago, cotton contributed nearly 56 percent of the total compared with manmade fibers’ share of 38 percent. This chart is from the March 2015 Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
During the final decades of the Soviet Union, Russia (along with the USSR in general) was a large importer of grain, with net imports in some years exceeding 20 million metric tons (mmt). However, since 2000, the country has become a major grain exporter (primarily of wheat), with net exports in some years exceeding 20 mmt. Underlying this reversal is the fact that the Russian livestock sector contracted substantially—by about half—during the 1990s, reducing not only the need for grain imports, but for domestic production, as well. Then, beginning in about 2000, Russian grain production began to rise substantially, creating large surpluses for export. Despite the country’s move from large grain importer to exporter, average annual grain output over 2011-14 was still below that of 1986-90. This highlights the degree to which the Soviet Union over-invested in its high-cost and inefficient livestock sector, which required large volumes of feed from both domestic and imported grain. Russian grain output and exports continue to trend higher, but can fluctuate considerably on a year-to-year basis because of Russia’s volatile continental weather. This chart is based on the report, Rising Grain Exports by the Former Soviet Union Region, Causes and Outlook.
Monday, March 9, 2015
Nonbulk agricultural exports (processed or high-value) have a larger proportional effect on the U.S. nonfarm economy than bulk exports (defined as soybeans and other oilseeds, wheat, rice, corn and other feed grains, tobacco, and cotton). In 2013, nonbulk exports of $96.9 billion stimulated an additional $137.7 billion of business activity (i.e., each dollar of non-bulk exports generated $1.42 of additional output). Bulk exports valued at $47.5 billion produced an additional $38.3 billion of business activity (i.e., each dollar of bulk exports generated $0.81 of additional output). In contrast to bulk exports, nonbulk exports of higher value or more processed products led to proportionally more additional business activity in the food processing, other manufacturing, and services, trade, and transport sectors. Of the 1.09 million jobs associated with U.S. agricultural exports in 2013, 768,300 (70 percent) supported nonbulk exports. This chart comes from the Agricultural Trade Multipliers data product.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Japan is one of the largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports, and the United States has long been its largest supplier. However, in recent years the total value of U.S. agricultural exports to Japan has stagnated (in real terms) and the U.S. share of Japan’s agricultural imports has declined. U.S. exports to Japan of some major products—such as soybeans and fruits/preparations—are down since 2000, and others, such as wheat and corn, have remained flat. Japanese imports of U.S. pork are an exception, with strong growth over the last 15 years. The decline in the U.S. share of Japan’s agricultural imports reflects greater competition from competing suppliers, especially in South America and Asia. Japan has expanded its imports of soybeans, soy meal, poultry meat, and grains from South America; palm oil, rubber, and poultry meat from Southeast Asia; soy meal from South Asia; and alcoholic beverages and processed foods from nearby South Korea. Nevertheless, the United States remains Japan’s largest supplier of agricultural products despite trade policies there that maintain a high level of protection for domestically produced products such as wheat and rice and many consumer-ready foods. This chart is from “Japan, Vietnam, and the Asian Model of Agricultural Development and Trade,” in Amber Waves, February 2015.
Friday, February 20, 2015
U.S. fruit and vegetable trade with Canada and Mexico has increased more than 380 percent since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Canada and Mexico now account for over half of all U.S. trade in fruits and vegetables, up from 37 percent in 1994. Over the same period, the share of U.S. fruit and vegetable trade with South America and Central America has remained relatively steady, while the share accounted for by Asia and the EU declined considerably. Mexico’s annual exports of fruit and vegetables to the United States (including juice) have more than tripled during the NAFTA period, approaching $9.4 billion in 2013. These exports have their roots in the development and growth over the past half century of a Mexican fruit and vegetable sector that is oriented toward the U.S. market. Annual U.S. fruit and vegetable exports to Mexico have more than tripled under NAFTA, reaching about $1.4 billion in 2013 and benefitting from the rapid expansion of Mexico’s supermarket sector, including several U.S. supermarket chains that operate there. At the same time, trade liberalization and broader use of greenhouse technology in Canada has allowed U.S. imports of fruit and vegetables from Canada to grow from $213 million in 1988 to $3.1 billion in 2013. Canada has long been a large market for the U.S. fruit and vegetable industry. During the NAFTA period, U.S. fruit and vegetable exports to Canada have grown from less than $2 billion in 1993 to $5.8 billion in 2013. The chart is from the report, NAFTA at 20: North America’s Free Trade Area and its Impact on Agriculture.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Agricultural trade among the North American Free Trade Agreement’s (NAFTA) member countries has grown since the agreement was implemented. The total value of intraregional agricultural trade (exports and imports) among all three NAFTA countries reached about $82.0 billion in 2013, compared with $16.7 billion in 1993 (the year before NAFTA’s implementation), and $8.8 billion in 1988 (the year before the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement’s (CUSTA) implementation). When the effects of inflation are taken into account, this expansion in intraregional agricultural trade corresponds to an increase of 233 percent between 1993 and 2013, compared to U.S. agricultural trade worldwide, which grew 126 percent over the same period. The vast majority of trade between these 3 nations involves the United States; U.S. agricultural trade with its 2 NAFTA partners alone reached $78.9 billion in 2013, compared with $16 billion in 1993. The expansion of U.S. trade under NAFTA reflects similar patterns of growth between exports and imports, highlighting the high degree of market integration across these nations. This chart is from the report, NAFTA at 20: North America’s Free Trade Area and its Impact on Agriculture.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
With the strong growth in U.S. agricultural exports since 2000, agriculture’s share of total U.S. exports has been rising. Agriculture’s share of U.S. exports fell during the 1980s and 1990s, when the value of agricultural exports grew more slowly than total exports, but that trend has reversed since 2000. Since then, the combination of strong global demand, particularly in developing countries, and higher prices for farm commodities, has boosted agriculture’s share of all U.S. exports from a low of 6.6 percent in 2000 to an average of 9.1 percent during 2011-2013. Although U.S. agricultural imports have also grown since 2000, agricultural exports have grown more rapidly, leading to the expansion of the U.S. agricultural trade surplus, with that surplus reaching a record $40 billion in 2013. This chart is based on data found in Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Fiscal 2015 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $143.5 billion, $9.0 billion below fiscal 2014, primarily because of the outlook for lower bulk commodity prices. Grain and feed sales are forecast down 18 percent from fiscal 2014 as lower prices, as well as reduced volumes, reduce the value of corn and wheat exports. Lower prices are expected to reduce oilseed and product exports by 15 percent, despite the outlook for larger export volumes. In contrast, horticultural product exports are forecast to grow 11 percent to $37 billion, making them the largest category of U.S. agricultural exports for the first time. Livestock products are also forecast to grow about 3 percent in fiscal 2015, primarily due to higher meat prices. The trade outlook indicates a decline in U.S. agricultural exports across global regions. Lower prices are expected to reduce the value of exports to China, the largest U.S. agricultural market, by about 7 percent to $24.0 billion. Sales to Canada, the second largest U.S. market, are forecast to hold steady at about $21.8 billion, while sales to Mexico slip about 4 percent to $18.7 billion. Find additional analysis in Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: December 2014.
Friday, October 3, 2014
Most of the largest individual country markets for U.S. agricultural exports are in Asia and North America. China, with its strong demand for soybeans, cotton, cattle hides, tree nuts, and other horticulture products, has become the largest single U.S agricultural market, with annual U.S. exports averaging $23.5 billion during 2011-13. Canada (with 2011-13 average U.S. exports of $20.3 billion) and Mexico ($18.5 billion) are the second and third largest markets, with trade in a broad range of agricultural commodities aided by reforms introduced by the 20-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Japan ($13.2 billion) is the fourth largest U.S. market, and the next five top ranked markets are also in Asia: South Korea ($6.0 billion), Hong Kong ($3.5 billion), Taiwan ($3.3 billion), Indonesia ($2.7 billion), and the Philippines ($2.3 billion). Total U.S. agricultural exports were a record $144.1 billion in 2013, and averaged $140.6 billion during 2011-13. Find this chart and more in Selected Charts 2014, Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Fiscal 2015 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $144.5 billion, down $8 billion from the record $152.5 billion forecast for fiscal 2014, primarily because of the outlook for lower commodity prices. Lower prices are projected to reduce fiscal 2015 exports of oilseeds and products by $5.1 billion and cotton by $600 million, while lower prices and volumes reduce grain and feed exports by $4.9 billion, compared with fiscal 2014. Horticultural exports are, however, projected to rise $2.9 billion to a record $37.0 billion in fiscal 2015, eclipsing exports of grains and feeds for the first time. Agricultural exports to China are forecast down $3.0 billion from fiscal 2014, but China is expected to remain the top U.S. agricultural market. Exports to Russia are projected to decline by $800 million to $400 million in fiscal 2015 as a result of trade restrictions against the United States. U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $117 billion in fiscal 2015, $7.5 billion higher than in fiscal 2014, with the largest gains in horticultural products, sugar and tropical products, and livestock products. Find these data and additional analysis in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2014.
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Russia’s recently announced 1-year ban on imports of food from the United States should affect only relatively small shares of U.S. agricultural exports. In calendar year 2013, U.S. agricultural exports to Russia totaled $1.31 billion, or 0.8% of total U.S. agricultural exports of $162.16 billion. Major U.S. products shipped to Russia in 2013 were poultry meat and products ($312 million), tree nuts (primarily almonds; $172 million), soybeans ($157 million), and live animals (primarily cattle for breeding purposes; $149 million). Imports of non-food items, including soybeans and live animals, do not appear to be on Russia’s banned list. U.S. exports of poultry meat and products to Russia accounted for 5.6 percent of U.S. exports in this category in 2013, but U.S. poultry exports to Russia have declined in recent years because of restrictive tariff rate quotas and phyto-sanitary measures. Exports of high-quality breeding cattle to Russia accounted for 16.8 percent of U.S. live animal exports in 2013, and are imported by Russia to upgrade its cattle and dairy herds. Russia was the 16th largest U.S. export market for tree nuts, accounting for 2.3 percent of U.S. tree nut exports. This chart is based on ERS analysis of data from the Global Agricultural Trade System.
Friday, June 13, 2014
U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at a record $149.5 billion in fiscal 2014 (year ending September 30), $8.6 billion above 2013, with exports to Asian and Western Hemisphere countries accounting for most of the growth. China is forecast to remain the largest U.S. market, with U.S. sales expected to rise from $23.5 billion in fiscal 2013 to $28 billion in fiscal 2014. Other Asian markets forecast to show significant growth include Hong Kong, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand. In the Western Hemisphere, exports to Canada (the second largest U.S. market) are expected to rise marginally to $21.6 billion, while exports to Mexico (the third largest) are forecast to rise to $18.6 billion. U.S. export growth is also forecast for South America, including Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Higher income growth and a lower U.S. exchange rate are expected to support continued growth in U.S. exports, especially within the Western Hemisphere. Although slower income growth is anticipated for China in 2014, demand for agricultural goods is expected to remain robust. This chart is based on data found in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.
Friday, April 11, 2014
The number of U.S. jobs associated with agricultural exports has generally been growing along with U.S. agricultural exports and is influenced by the composition of exports between bulk (raw, unprocessed) and nonbulk (processed, high-value) agricultural products. In calendar year 2012, the $141.3 billion of total U.S. agricultural exports generated an estimated 929,000 full-time civilian jobs. Since the early 2000s, job growth associated with U.S. agricultural exports has been driven entirely by expanding sales of nonbulk products. Nonbulk exports have a larger proportional effect on jobs than bulk exports because they generate more economic activity and jobs in the nonfarm economy in areas such as manufacturing, trade, and transportation. In 2012, nonbulk exports of $90.6 billion led to an additional $140.1 billion of business activity supporting an estimated 654,584 jobs, while bulk exports valued at $50.7 billion produced an additional $39.4 billion of business activity supporting an estimated 274,584 jobs. Estimates of economic activity and jobs associated with agricultural exports are model-based, using a detailed input-output data set on the U.S. economy. Find this chart and additional data and documentation in the ERS Agricultural Trade Multiplier data product.
Friday, March 21, 2014
The depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of U.S. agricultural trade partners contributed to the growth in U.S. agricultural exports since the early 2000s. When the dollar depreciates, U.S. agricultural exports tend to rise as they become cheaper in foreign currency terms, while periods of appreciation—such as 2009—tend to make U.S. goods more expensive and constrain exports. Between 2002 and 2011, the U.S. dollar depreciated 22 percent against the currencies of U.S. agricultural trade partners, while U.S. agricultural exports expanded by 156 percent. Since 2011, although the dollar has appreciated 7 percent, its value remains low relative to historical levels and U.S. agricultural exports have remained competitive. The U.S. dollar exchange rate index shown in the chart is based on the average exchange rate across countries, weighted by each country’s share of U.S. agricultural exports. This chart is based on data found in the ERS Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set and Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
U.S. agricultural exports nearly tripled between 2000 and 2013, reaching a record $140.9 billion in U.S. fiscal year 2012/13 (October/September). Growth has, to a large extent, been driven by higher incomes and rising food and feed demand in developing countries. Sales to developing countries were up about 250 percent between 2000 and 2013, and they now account for two-thirds of U.S. agricultural exports. Rising prices have been the other key driver of growth in U.S. agricultural exports. Both rising demand from the growing middle classes of developing countries and the falling value of the dollar have been important factors in boosting the world market prices of grains, oilseeds, and cotton—the traditional bulk commodities. Between 2000 and 2013, the volume of bulk commodities shipped from the United States actually fell slightly, but their value rose almost 8 percent annually. High-value product (HVP) exports rose even more than bulk products in value terms, and the value of U.S. agricultural exports in 2013 was still more heavily concentrated in livestock, horticultural and other HVPs than in bulk products. For HVP exports, developing countries have also played a larger role than developed country markets. The share of U.S. HVP exports directed to developing countries rose from 54 percent in 2000 to 58 percent in 2013. This is an updated version of a chart found in Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Since the 1990s, the U.S. fresh fruit market has changed, with growing imports of a wider variety of fresh fruit shaping the market. Americans now consume an increased amount and expanded variety of fresh fruit and also benefit from improved year-round availability of fresh fruits. Between 1990-92 and 2010-12, U.S. per capita use of fresh fruit increased more than 12 percent to 104.7 pounds, while the share of fresh fruit use that is imported grew from 36.3 percent to 49 percent. The mix of fresh fruit imports changed substantially during this period—many traditional imports (such as bananas and apples) now account for a smaller share of total fruit imports, while the share for some other items (such as berries and avocados) is rising. Analysis of seasonal patterns indicates that the availability of imports and domestic products are generally complementary, with imports often making up for seasonal shortfalls in domestic fruit production. This chart can be found in Imports Contribute to Year-Round Fresh Fruit Availability, FTS-356-01, released December 30, 2013.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $109.5 billion in fiscal year 2014 (October/September), up $5.7 billion from fiscal 2013, with horticultural products continuing to be the primary driver of import growth. The outlook is for relatively stable prices for major imports in fiscal 2014, while stronger U.S. income growth is expected to boost import volumes. Imports of horticultural products are projected to increase by $4 billion in fiscal 2014 as U.S. demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, processed fruit, wine, essential oils, and most other horticultural product categories continues to expand. Horticultural products have accounted for more than 40 percent of U.S. import growth since 2010. Imports from most supplying countries are expected to be higher in fiscal 2014 with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union—which together account for more than 59 percent of U.S. imports—contributing most of the gains. This chart is based on data provided in the Outlook for U.S Agricultural Trade.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
The United States is the world’s second largest poultry meat exporter behind Brazil, with U.S. exports valued at $4.2 billion and accounting for 20 percent of U.S. broiler meat production in 2012. According to USDA’s long-term projections, world import demand for poultry meat is expected to grow 1.56 million tons over the next 10 years. Brazil’s poultry exports—aided by relatively low production costs—are expected to grow 27 percent by 2022, compared with 11 percent projected growth in U.S. exports. Strong growth in poultry imports is projected for much of the world, except for Russia and the European Union. Continued growth is projected in the Africa and the Middle East region—including Sub-Saharan Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Other North Africa and Middle East—which now accounts for more than 40 percent of poultry imports by major importers. In this and other developing regions, rising consumer incomes, population growth, urbanization, and the typically low cost of poultry meat relative to other meats are key drivers of expanding poultry demand. This chart can be found in Assessing Growth in U.S. Broiler and Poultry Meat Exports, LDPM-231-01, released November 8, 2013.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Annual world real economic growth is expected to rise from 2.2 percent in 2013 to 2.9 percent in 2014, maintaining a strong global demand outlook for U.S. agricultural trade. All global regions are forecast to show stronger real GDP growth in 2014. Growth in Asia, which includes China—the largest U.S. export market in 2013—as well as a number of large and emerging U.S. markets, is forecast to rise to 4.3 percent in 2014. Asian growth is expected to be sustained primarily by domestic consumer demand, housing growth due to easier credit, and higher infrastructure spending. Growth in the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region, which includes the second and third largest U.S. markets in 2013—Canada and Mexico—is expected to strengthen to 3 percent in 2014. In the NAFTA region, continued U.S. recovery is expected to drive higher regional growth in 2014, with real GDP growth in Mexico expected to reach 4 percent. European economies are forecast to recover in 2014 and, along with faster U.S. growth, are expected to strengthen trade and growth prospects for economies in the Middle East and Africa. Key risks to the outlook include the potential for inflationary pressures leading to more restrictive monetary and fiscal policies and slower growth in several emerging markets, as well the potential for slower financial recovery, credit expansion, and growth in the Euro zone countries. This chart is based on data found in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2013.