Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade No. (AES-94) 37 pp

July 2016

Global Macroeconomic Developments Drive Downturn in U.S. Agricultural Exports

The macroeconomic outlook underlying the 2016 USDA ten-year agricultural projections indicates slower global income growth, particularly in developing countries, and a stronger dollar. This shift in the macroeconomic environment relative to the past decade implies smaller projected increases in agricultural trade and declines in U.S. market share relative to previous projections.

Keywords: United States, agriculture, exports, macroeconomic outlook, income growth, exchange rates, markets, competitors, developing countries, bulk commodities, intermediate goods, consumer-oriented goods, model simulations.

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2017