Highlights from the February 2023 Farm Income Forecast
Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Farm Sector Income & Finances: Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast, February 7, 2023.
Farm Sector Profits Forecast to Fall in 2023
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $136.9 billion in calendar year 2023, a decrease of $25.9 billion (15.9 percent) relative to 2022 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. This follows a forecast increase of $21.9 billion (15.5 percent), from $140.9 billion in 2021 to $162.7 billion in 2022. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $30.5 billion (18.2 percent) in 2023 relative to 2022. Despite this expected decline, net farm income in 2023 would be 26.6 percent above its 20-year average (2002–2021) of $108.1 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Net cash farm income is forecast at $150.6 billion in 2023, a decrease of $39.4 billion (20.7 percent) relative to 2022. This follows a forecast increase of $40.4 billion (27.0 percent) from 2021 to 2022. When adjusted for inflation, 2023 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $44.7 billion (22.9 percent) from a forecast record high of $195.3 billion in 2022. Despite the decrease, net cash farm income in 2023 would be 15.4 percent above its 2002–2021 average of $130.5 billion. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming as well as cash farm-related income (including Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items—including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings—reflected in the net farm income measure.
Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease by $23.6 billion (4.3 percent, in nominal terms) from a forecast record high of $543.4 billion in 2022 to $519.9 billion in 2023. Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by $8.9 billion (3.1 percent) from the forecast 2022 level, led by lower receipts for soybeans and corn. Total animal/animal product receipts are expected to decrease by $14.7 billion (5.7 percent), following declines in receipts for milk, eggs, broilers, and hogs.
Also contributing to forecast lower income in 2023 are lower direct Government payments and higher production expenses. Direct Government payments are forecast to fall by $5.4 billion (34.4 percent) from 2022 to $10.2 billion in 2023. This decrease is expected largely because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance in 2023 relative to 2022. Meanwhile, total production expenses, including operator dwelling expenses, are forecast to increase by $18.2 billion (4.1 percent) to $459.5 billion in 2023. Interest expenses and livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest dollar increases in 2023 relative to 2022.
Average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to decrease 17.7 percent from 2022 to $92,400 per farm in 2023 (in nominal terms). All nine ERS Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income fall in 2023 relative to 2022, in nominal dollars, with farm businesses located in the Fruitful Rim and Northern Crescent expected to see the largest decline. When grouped by commodity specialization, all commodity specializations of farm businesses are forecast to see lower average net cash income in 2023. Those specializing in dairy and hogs are expected to see the largest decline relative to 2022.
Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 5.0 percent in 2023 to $3.5 trillion in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 5.2 percent in 2023 to $4.0 trillion following expected increases in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 6.2 percent in 2023 to $535.1 billion. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to increase from 13.09 percent in 2022 to 13.22 percent in 2023. After increasing in 2021 and 2022, working capital is forecast to fall 11.2 percent in 2023 relative to 2022.
Get the 2022 and 2023 forecasts for farm sector income or see all data tables on farm income indicators.
Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast to Increase Nominally, Decrease After Inflation, in 2022 and 2023
Median total farm household income is forecast to increase in 2022 to $94,853 and again to $96,715 in 2023. That is a nominal increase of 2.8 percent (a 3.6-percent decline after inflation) between 2021 and 2022, and a 2.0-percent nominal increase (a 0.8-percent decline after inflation) in 2023 from the previous year.
Farm households typically receive income from both farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households is forecast to decrease in 2022 to -$683 from $210 in 2021, and then forecast to decline further to -$1,125 in 2023. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income: median off-farm income in 2022 is forecast at $88,201, an increase of 6.5 percent (a decrease of 0.2 percent after inflation) from $82,809 in 2021, and to continue increasing by 3.3 percent (0.4 percent after inflation) to $91,080 in 2023. Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.
See the Farm Household Income and Characteristics data product tables for financial statistics of farm operator households.
- Farm Sector Income and Finances for a discussion of the full farm sector income forecast.
- Farm Household Well-being for a discussion of the farm household income forecast.
- Farm Income and Wealth Statistics for the complete 2022 and 2023 farm income forecast data and full history of U.S. and State farm sector estimates.
- Charts and Maps About Your State, Charts and Maps of U.S. Farm Sector Balance Sheet Data, and Charts and Maps of U.S. Farm Income Statement Data for farm sector data visualizations.
- Farm Household Income and Characteristics for data related to farm household income and characteristics.
- ARMS Farm Financial and Crop Production Practices data that underpin the farm income forecast and estimates.