Readings

Readings

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
  • This monthly report gives an update of current market and policy developments and their impacts on the sugar and corn sweetener industries.
  • “Global Sugar Outlook” and “Honey Update” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: June 2021

  • The Global Sugar Market Outlook is an update to the previous Outlook that was published in December 2020. The updated Outlook presents the first forecasts of the 2021/22 marketing year, as well as updates to 2020/21 data. The Honey Update provides data on 2020 U.S. honey production and imports. Analysis is also provided on international honey production (June 2021, page 21 and 30 of PDF, respectively).

  • “Evolution of U.S. Specialty Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) and Organic Sugar Imports” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: April 2021

  • This report discusses the changes that have been made to the U.S. Specialty Sugar TRQ. The report also provides background on the recent changes to the specialty sugar and organic Harmonized System (HS) codes (April 2021, page 17 of PDF).

  • “Long-term Projections for Baseline and Alternative Scenarios” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2021
  • This report discusses the long-term projections for the U.S. and Mexican sugar industries. Alternative scenarios are evaluated, including the impact of changing world prices as well as a higher stocks-to-use ratio (March 2021, page 15 of PDF).
  • “Uptick in U.S. Domestic Sugar Deliveries” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2021
    This report examines the quarterly and monthly trends in U.S. sugar deliveries, through the end of calendar year 2020. Discussion includes breakouts of the different package sizes and end users. Impacts of COVID-19 are discussed, along with the impact of the 2019/20 beet sugar production shortfall (February 2021, page 14 of PDF).
  • “Organic Sugar Market Analysis” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2021
    This report examines the evolution of U.S. organic sugar imports through the U.S. World Trade Organization (WTO) Specialty Sugar Tariff-rate quota (TRQ) (January 2021, page 13 of PDF).
  • “Global Sugar Outlook” and “EU Sugar Market Analysis” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: December 2020
    The Global Sugar Outlook provides a view of the global sugar market with special emphasis on key players such as Brazil and Thailand. The EU Sugar Market Analysis provides an in-depth dive into the market situation and policy background for the EU sugar market (December 2020, pages 13 and 21 of PDF, respectively).
  • “U.S. Refined Beet Sugar Prices” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: November 2020
    The refined beet sugar prices article shows 20 years of beet sugar prices and explains the market situations that influenced prices in those years. The article also analyzes the statistical relationship between prices and the stocks-to-use ratio (November 2020, page 18).
  • “Caloric Sweeteners Delivery” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: October 2020
    This article examines the long-term trends in caloric sweetener deliveries. Sugar and high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) per capita deliveries are analyzed over a 40-year period. Factors behind the overall growth in the first 20 years are discussed, as are the driving forces for the lower deliveries over the more recent 20 years (October 2020, page 14).
  • “U.S. Honey and Pollinator Markets” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: June 2020
    This article examines the trends in U.S. honey and pollinator markets, detailing factors influencing supply and pricing. Further, the article provides background on typical bee colony movements throughout the year (June 2020, page 23).
  • “Long-Term Projections” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2020
    This article examines the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report “Agricultural Projections to 2029,” analyzing both the baseline projections as well as various alternative scenarios. The article analyzes the impact of variability in oil prices and evaluates alternative assumptions about policy and stock levels (February 2020, page 11 of PDF).
  • “Trends in U.S. Deliveries” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2020
    This article discusses long-term trends in U.S. sugar and HFCS deliveries and uses an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to project future deliveries trends on a monthly basis (January 2020, page 9 of PDF).
  • “U.S. Corn Sweeteners Markets” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: April 2019
    This article reviews supply and utilization data, by calendar year, for HFCS (April 2019, page 15 of PDF).
  • “Caloric Sweetener Deliveries” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: September 2018
    This article provides a long-term view of total caloric sweetener deliveries, providing detail on sugar, HFCS, glucose, dextrose, honey, and other edible syrups (September 2018, page 15 of PDF).
  • “U.S. Re-Export Program” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: August 2018
    This report provides an explanation of the functioning of the sugar re-export program. Detail is provided to explain the accrual of positive and negative license balances (August 2018, page 14 of PDF).
  • “U.S. Honey Market” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: May 2018
    This article examines the supply and use balance of the U.S. honey market, with some discussion of key States of interest (May 2018, page 19 of PDF).
  • “Long-Term Projections for U.S. and Mexico Sugar Markets” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2018
    This article examines the long-term baseline projections for the sugar markets in the United States and Mexico. The report also analyzes the potential impact of shocks to consumption patterns or yield (February 2018, page 15 of PDF).
  • “Sugar Consumption Trends Since 2008: Background for USDA WASDE Forecasting” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: August 2017
    This report analyzes the long-term trend in sweetener deliveries and presents a regression model to estimate deliveries. Structural changes in the market are considered through this analytical framework (August 2017, page 16 of PDF).
  • A New Outlook for the U.S.-Mexico Sugar and Sweetener Market
    This report gives an overview of the U.S.-Mexico sweetener market and examines the impact of the agreements suspending the U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty investigations on sugar imports from Mexico (August 2016).
  • “Increased Importance of Market Labeling and Potential Impacts on the U.S. Beet and Cane Sugar Markets” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2016
    This report describes the market changes resulting from the decision of several food companies to source non genetically-modified (GM) sugar. The article examines the potential ramifications of this development on the pricing for the cane and beet sectors (January 2016, page 8 of PDF).
  • Projecting World Raw Sugar Prices
    This report presents a modeling framework for use in projecting world sugar prices, with detailed treatment of the role of Brazil in the world sugar and ethanol sectors (January 2015).
  • “NAFTA Sugar and High-Fructose Corn Syrup Production Costs” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: June 2014
    This report provides an analysis of estimated production costs for Mexican cane sugar, U.S. cane sugar, and U.S. beet sugar. Data is separated into production regions to provide added detail (June 2014, page 17 of PDF).
  • “World Sugar and High Fructose Syrup Production Costs: 2001/02-2012/13” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: May 2014
    This report provides an analysis of estimated production costs for several major sugar producing countries around the globe. The report analyzes relative growth in production costs as well as the changes in different components of the cost structure (May 2014, page 17 of PDF).
  • “CCC Sugar Actions and Forfeitures” and “The Road to Forfeitures” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: December 2013
    These pieces provide details on the market conditions leading up to the sugar forfeitures to the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) that occurred in 2012/13, as well as the actions taken by CCC to address them (December 2013, pages 7 and 12 of PDF, respectively).

    World Raw Sugar Prices: The Influence of Brazilian Costs of Production and World Surplus/Deficit Measures
    This report analyzes the impact of Brazil’s sugar sector on global sugar prices. The relationship between production costs in Center/South Brazil as well as the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Brazilian real are examined as critical factors contributing to the world price of sugar (May 2013).

    “FY 2013 Sugar Outlook—A Method for Analyzing Excess Supply” in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2013
    This article presents methodology for projecting USDA energy title outlays for sugar. A stochastic modeling approach is used to quantitatively analyze possible outcomes resulting from a higher-than-average U.S. sugar supply (page 11 of PDF).

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: April 2011
  • This report examines yearly trends in production and processing costs for various categories of raw cane sugar, beet sugar, and HFCS producers—distinguishing between low- and high-cost groupings, different geographical regions, and major exporters other than Brazil. The analysis includes separate treatments of both field and factory costs (April 2011, page 13 of PDF).
  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2011
  • This report examines whether world sugar prices over time mirror changes in costs of production of the largest sugar producers and traders. An important consideration is whether changes in exchange rates, especially between the Brazil real and U.S. dollar, can influence the effect of changing costs on world prices (March 2011, page 9 of PDF).
  • "Sugar Long-Term Projections through Fiscal Year 2021" in  Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2011
  • This report examines long-run projections for sugar supply and use in the United States and Mexico. The primary factor for the U.S. sugar economy is a reliance on sugar imports from Mexico to maintain balance in the U.S. sugar market. With the yearly U.S. sugar ending stocks-to-use ratios set at 13.5 percent, there are no sugar loan forfeitures, and there are no Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) purchases of sugar for ethanol. However, assuming higher investment in the Mexican sugar industry and/or increased use of HFCS in Mexico introduces a heightened likelihood of CCC purchases (February 2011, page 10 of PDF).
  • "Sugar Production Costs in the United States and Mexico" in  Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2011
  • Drawing on LMC International's cost of production sugar database, the Sugar and Sweetener Team of USDA’s Economic Research Service examines costs of sugar production in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) area—cane sugar in the United States and Mexico and beet sugar in the United States—for the period 2000/01 through 2009/10. NAFTA production costs are also compared with corresponding world production costs (January 2011, page 8 of PDF).
  • World Sugar Price Volatility Intensified by Market and Policy Factors
  • This publication examines key factors affecting the world sugar market in 2009 and the first half of 2010. Rising pressure on sugar prices was intensified by supply disruptions in 2009, driving prices to double the long-term average. Higher production costs and growing ethanol use in Brazil set the stage for higher prices, but policy-induced production swings among Asian countries are the main source of price volatility. Although U.S. sugar prices are influenced by world prices, domestic sugar policy continues to drive U.S. sugar price movements (Amber Waves, September 2010).
  • Indian Sugar Sector Cycles Down, Poised To Rebound
  • A cyclical decline in sugar production is shifting India, the world's second largest producer, from net exporter to net importer during 2009/10 and contributing to the recent run-up in global sugar prices, but production is poised to rebound in 2010/11. The recent swings in Indian sugar production are primarily due to a policy-induced cycle that has become increasingly pronounced (April 2010).
  • "Mexican Sugar and HFCS Long-Term Projections through Fiscal Year 2021" in  Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2010
  • This report examines the contribution of possible developments in the Mexican sugar sector to long-term projections made by USDA for the U.S. sugar and HFCS sectors. Specific analysis rests on the assumption that the United States will increasingly rely on Mexico to cover U.S. sweetener import requirements (February 2010, page 8 of PDF).
  • "Tight Supplies Expected To Sustain High U.S. Sugar Prices into 2009/10" in  Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: October 2009
  • This report evaluates factors that have contributed to rising domestic and international sugar prices. U.S. prices have increased roughly 40 percent since 2008, largely because of recent domestic production shortfalls and rising demand for sugar in place of HFCS. Domestic sugar stocks reached a 33-year low relative to consumption in 2008/09, and supplies are expected to shrink further in 2009/10 as imports recede from the near-record levels of 2008/09 (October 2009, page 28 of PDF).
  • Colombia: A New Ethanol Producer on the Rise?
  • This report examines Colombia's sugarcane-based ethanol industry. After operating for only 3 years, the industry is the second most developed in the Western Hemisphere. Colombia's sugarcane-based ethanol production is increasing; proposed expansion projects have the potential to more than triple daily production from 277,000 gallons in 2007 to almost 1 million gallons in 2010 (January 2009).
  • The EU Sugar Policy Regime and Implications of Reform
  • This report examines European Union's sugar policy, which underwent its first major reform in 2005 in response to mounting and unsustainable imbalances in supply and demand. The reform targeted only a few policy instruments (intervention price cut, voluntary production quota buyout, and restrictions on non-quota sugar exports), while leaving other key policies unchanged (interstate quota trading, sugar-substitute competition, and import barriers). A model-based analysis suggests that—because of the oligopolistic nature of the EU sugar market—the initial reforms, by themselves, are unlikely to reduce overproduction (July 2008).
  • "Global Biofuels Market Boosts Sugar Ethanol Industry in Latin America" in  Sugar and Sweetners Outlook: May 2008
  • This reports that several countries in Latin America, besides Brazil, have policies and programs to expand production of liquid biofuels from biomass in the coming decades. This article analyzes developments that aim to reduce dependence on imported transportation fuels and to reduce poverty by engaging farmers in growing ethanol-producing crops (May 2008, page 41 of PDF).
  • "Western Hemisphere Sugar" in  Sugar and Sweetners Outlook: May 2008
  • This report analyzes the sugar industries of leading sugar-producing countries in the Western Hemisphere. This article highlights recent developments and trends in production, consumption, trade, and policy in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Jamaica, and Peru (May 2008, page 22 of PDF).  
  • "Processor Production Forecast Accuracy" in  Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2008
  • This research analyzes forecasts from processors for U.S. sugarbeet and sugarcane production before and after implementation of the 2002 Farm Act. Accurate forecasts are needed to administer marketing allotments, which are part of the price support program for sugar. Have processors become more accurate in their forecasts? Has there been a tendency to overestimate or underestimate production since 2002? (January 2008, page 37 of PDF).
  • Sugar Backgrounder
  • This report addresses key domestic and international market and policy developments that have affected the U.S. sugar sector in recent years. It provides descriptions and analyses of farm-level production of U.S. sugar crops, cane and beet sugar processing and refining industries, sugar imports and exports, and sugar consumption (July 2007).
  • "Ethanol Demand Driving the Expansion of Brazil's Sugar Industry" in Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: June 2007
  • This assesses the recent expansion of Brazil's sugar and ethanol industries due to rising crude oil prices, expanding global development of renewable energy, and growing domestic demand for ethanol. Because ethanol in Brazil is made from sugarcane, sugar industry developments are now increasingly linked to policy initiatives in ethanol markets (June 2007).
  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: May 2006
  • This Mexico overview reviews sweetener issues in Mexico through spring of 2006. It presents data and analysis on issues of production, trade, consumption, and policy for both sugar and HFCS (May 2006).
  • USDA's Sugar Program Response in FY 2005 to Weather Disasters
  • This report examines how USDA responded to the disabling of cane refineries in Louisiana as a result of Hurricane Katrina and the poor early sugarbeet harvest in the Red River Valley in the Upper Midwest. According to the analysis, USDA actions allowed for the entry of an additional 560,054 tons of sugar into the market but, because of a variety of factors, only 384,725 tons actually entered (May 2006).
  • "European Union-25 Sugar Policy" in  Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2006
  • This report assesses recent changes in European Union (EU) sugar policy, which will be implemented in July 2006 and includes a price reduction of 36 percent to be phased in by the 2009/10 marketing year. Analysis shows a reduction in EU sugar production and a virtual elimination of EU sugar exports, with a resulting increase in the world price of sugar (January 2006).
  • Sweetener Consumption in the United States: Distribution by Demographic and Product Characteristics
  • This publication reports findings for sweetener consumption by income and demographic characteristics. Among the conclusions: Per capita sweetener consumption is highest in the Midwest and lowest in the Northeast, and sweetener consumption tends to rise with increased income up to a certain level and then fall (August 2005).
  • Characteristics and Production Costs of U.S. Sugarbeet Farms
  • This report summarizes production and financial information related to the 2000 sugarbeet crop. Sugarbeet production and costs varied considerably across farms and regions in the United States both on a per-acre and a per-ton basis, according to a USDA survey of farmers in 2000 (November 2004).
  • Measuring the Effect of Imports of Sugar-Containing Products on U.S. Sugar Deliveries
  • This report analyzes the effects of imports of sugar-containing products on the level of sugar deliveries to U.S. industrial end users of sugar (September 2003).
  • Sweetener Policies in Japan
  • This report supplies a detailed description and analysis of Japan's policies to support its sugar producers and to regulate sweetener markets. Domestic policies include price floors for cane and beet farmers; subsidies to sugar refiners to compensate for the high cost of domestic sugarcane and sugarbeets; and quantity limits on the production of HFCS (September 2002).
  • U.S. Sugar Policy Under the 2002 Farm Act
  • This policy gives a concise profile of the new sugar title of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (September 2002, scroll down to the middle of page 1).
    Imports of Certain Sugar Syrups Rise Dramatically in the 1990s
  • This research projects that sugar syrups described under Harmonized Tariff Code 1702.90.4000, which enter the United States outside the sugar TRQ and at relatively low duties, could add as much as 125,000 tons in fiscal 2001 to a swollen U.S. sugar supply (January 2001).
    Weak Prices Test U.S. Sugar Policy
  • This report finds that domestic sugar production and imports are exceeding domestic consumption, making it difficult to keep prices above support levels without policy tradeoffs (September 2000).
  • Returns from Mexican Sugar Processing: Measuring the Contribution of Capacity Usage, Technological Adaption, and Output Prices
  • This report examines the profitability of the Mexican sugar-processing sector and its ability to adjust to price incentives and technology in the expanded North American sugar market (May 2000).
  • Conceptual Overview of the U.S. Sugar Baseline: Incorporating the Effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement
  • This research finds that the United States will be importing more sugar from Mexico over the next decade, largely because of NAFTA (January 2000).
  • U.S.-Mexico Sweetener Trade Mired in Dispute
  • This report reviews disputes between the two countries over sugar and sweetener issues and highlights the potential consequences to the U.S. sugar industry of increased imports (September 1999).
  • Early Season USDA Projections of Sugar Production
  • This report examines methods used in the early projection period by the USDA Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC) to forecast U.S. sugar production (May 1999).
  • "Implications of NAFTA Duty Reductions for the U.S. Sugar Market"
  • This chapter in February 1999 Sugar and Sweetener Outlook (text only) offers an analysis of Mexican sugar support policies and the Mexican sugar industry as Mexico and the United States move toward integrated sugar markets in 2008 (February 1999).
  • The Rise and Decline of Puerto Rico's Sugar Economy
  • This report analyzes the Puerto Rico's shift from being a raw sugar supplier to the United States to importing sugar to meet domestic needs (December 1998).
  • Auctioning Tariff Quotas for U.S. Sugar Imports
  • This report analyzes the current U.S. raw cane sugar TRQ allocations to 40 countries and discusses an auctioning system for the sugar TRQ (May 1998).
  • U.S. and World Sugar and HFCS Production Costs, 1989/90-1994/95
  • This research reports on yearly trends in costs of sugar production for groups of major sugar exporters (May 1998).
  • Origin of the U.S. Sugar Import Tariff-Rate Quota Shares
  • This report describes the beginnings of the TRQ system for administering U.S. sugar imports and gives data on how individual country quota shares are determined (September 1997).
  • The Central American Sugar Industry
  • This report discusses the economic importance of the sugar industry to Central American countries (December 1996).
  • Sugar: Background for 1995 Farm Legislation and Sugar: Background for 1990 Farm Legislation
  • These reports provide historical analysis of U.S. sugar and sweetener production, processing, consumption, trade, and policy (April 1995 and February 1990).
  • A History of Sugar Marketing Through 1974
  • This report describes and analyzes the U.S. system of regulating production, import, and marketing of sugar from Colonial times to the demise of the Sugar Act in 1974 (March 1978).

Related Links

U.S. Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides data on sugarcane and sugarbeet yields, acreage, production, and prices by State and nationally, as well as other commodity-specific reports.

  • Quick Stats. Searchable database containing information on crop yields, acreage, production, and prices at the State and national levels.
  • Statistics by State. Links to State sites for information on crop progress; on State plantings, production, and yields; and on county estimates.
  • Census of Agriculture. A complete count of U.S. farms and ranches, the Census looks at land use and ownership, operator characteristics, production practices, income and expenditures, and many other items.

Farm Service Agency offers extensive information on sugar and other commodity programs and on sugar markets.

Foreign Agricultural Service supplies information on world sugar supply and use, as well as program operation information for the sugar TRQs and re-export programs.

World Agricultural Outlook Board provides data on U.S. sugar supply and use.

National Agricultural Library, National Agricultural Library Digital Collections (NALDC) offers online browsing of historical ERS Agricultural Economic Reports and Agriculture Information Bulletins.

Other U.S. Government 

Office of the U.S. Trade Representative publishes the allocation of sugar TRQs by country and gives information about U.S. trade agreements and dispute settlement cases.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection provides announcements to importers about the administration and status of the sugar TRQs.

U.S. General Accounting Office publishes reports about the operations and effectiveness of the U.S. sugar program.