Market Outlook

See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.

Mexico Production Lowered; U.S. Ending
Stocks Raised

In the February 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the forecast for Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar production is reduced from last month by 141,000 metric tons (MT), actual weight, to 4.875 million MT. This is the lowest in more than a decade and the first time that production would fall below 5 million MT since 2010/11. Consequently, exports to the U.S. are reduced by 105,000 MT to 684,000, also the lowest since 2010/11. With deliveries unchanged and ending stocks set to a 2.5-months’ worth of target ending stocks, Mexico’s total sugar imports are residually increased by 36,000 MT to 547,000, the highest in 14 years.

The U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply is lowered from last month by 23,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.520 million on lower beet sugar production and imports from Mexico offsetting the higher forecast for cane sugar production and high-tier sugar imports. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.450 million based on pace, bringing down total use by the same magnitude to 12.715 million STRV. With a larger downward revision in use offsetting the supply reduction, ending stocks are increased by 52,000 STRV to 1.805 million. The corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is 14.2 percent, up by half a percentage point from last month’s 13.7 percent.

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