Market Outlook

See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.

U.S. 2023/24 and 2024/25 Sugar Supply Increased; Mexico 2023/24 Exports Raised

In the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply is raised from last month by 305,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.682 million on larger domestic sugar production and imports. Total use is up 43,000 STRV to 12.696 million on a strong pace of exports to Mexico. Thus, ending stocks are at 1.986 million STRV, which corresponds to a stock-to-use ratio of 15.6 percent, up 2 percentage points from last month.

The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is increased from last month by 250,000 STRV to 14.250 million as larger beginning stocks and beet sugar production more than offset lower imports. The import reduction is primarily due to the anticipated calculation of imports from Mexico per the terms of the suspension agreements. With total use unchanged at 12.555 million STRV, ending stocks are at 1.695 million and the stocks-to-use ratio is 13.5 percent.

Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar supply is raised from last month as higher imports compensate for the reduction in production to 4.708 million metric tons (MT), a 24-year low. Exports to the United States in 2023/24 are increased 33,000 MT to 432,000 in recognition that some of the low polarity sugar exported during the early part of the campaign were carryover stocks from 2022/23. As with last month, it is assumed that Mexico would keep the sugar in stocks for 2024/25 given the decreased outlook for 2024/25 sugar production instead of exporting to other countries.