Market Outlook

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Increased Production Raises U.S. Sugar Supply; Mexican Campaign Progressing Slowly

In the January 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the 2022/23 U.S. total sugar supply is increased from last month to 14.525 million STRV, as the combined increase in beet sugar and Louisiana cane sugar production forecasts offset the reduction in total imports. Total imports are reduced from last month as the projected decrease in sugar imported under the World Trade Organization (WTO) raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) offsets the projected increase in high-tier duty sugar. With total use forecast unchanged at 12.640 million STRV, ending stocks are increased to 1.885 million STRV, up by 178,000 from last month and by 66,000 from 2021/22. This translates to an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.9 percent, which is higher by 1.4 percentage points than last month’s 13.5 percent and by 0.6 percentage points from last year’s 14.3 percent.

The 2022/23 Mexican supply and use balance sheet is unchanged from last month, except for a slight increase in exports to countries other than the United States. The 5.9 million-MT sugar production is carried over from last month, but notable is the slower-than-average pace of this year’s campaign.

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