Market Outlook

See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.

U.S. Sugar Supply Lowered; Mexican Sugar
Production Reduced

In the March 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the 2022/23 U.S. total sugar supply is reduced by 54,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.460 million from last month as the larger sugar production–a new record if realized–is offset by lower imports. The decrease in imports is mainly driven by the 172,000-STRV downward adjustment of imports from Mexico to 1.306 million countering the 31,000-STRV increase in high-tier imports to 156,000. Sugar delivered for human consumption is raised 100,000 STRV to 12.6 million. Total use is raised by the same amount to 12.705 million STRV. Ending stocks are lowered by 154,000 to 1.720 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent, down by 1.3 percentage points from last month’s 14.8 percent.

Mexico’s sugar production in 2022/23 is reduced 415,000 metric tons (MT), actual value from last month to 5.485 million due to lower expectation for sugarcane yields and sucrose recovery. USDA forecasts that low polarity sugar production has the potential to be between 784,000 and 805,200 MT, about 70 to 72 percent of the revised Mexican export quota (equivalent to 1.118 million MT). Fulfilling the remaining portion of the quota that is allocated for refined sugar implies reduction in sugar deliveries to the Mexican market and ending stocks.

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