See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.
U.S. 2025/26 Sugar Ending Stocks Are Mostly Unchanged; Mexico’s 2025/26 Sugar Production Is Raised
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.269 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up 71,000 STRV from last month, as a decrease in domestic sugar production is more than offset by increases in imports (high-tier duty and re-export program). Sugar use is raised 69,000 STRV, as an increase in sugar deliveries for human consumption (up 94,000 STRV to 12.259 million) more than offsets a reduction in exports (down 25,000 STRV to 25,000). With sugar supply and use raised by nearly equal volumes, ending stocks are up 2,000 STRV to 1.880 million, and the resulting sugar stocks-to-use ratio is unchanged at 15.2 percent.
The main change on Mexico’s 2025/26 balance sheet is a 101,000-metric tons (MT) actual weight increase in sugar production (now at 5.125 million MT) on higher-than-expected sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery more than offsetting the delays in area harvested. The increase in production leads to an equal increase in Mexico’s sugar exports to other countries (outside of the suspension agreements), which is now estimated at a 7-year high of 747,000 MT, to maintain reasonable ending stocks before production in the next marketing year.