Food Price Outlook, 2026
This page summarizes the May 2026 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the April 2026 Consumer Price Index and the April 2026 Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.9 percent from March 2026 to April 2026. It was up 3.8 percent from April 2025.
The CPI for all food increased 0.5 percent from March 2026 to April 2026. Food prices in April 2026 were 3.2 percent higher than in April 2025.
The level of food price inflation varied depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.2 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and was 3.6 percent higher than in April 2025.
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.7 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and was 2.9 percent higher than in April 2025.
Rates of price change for the 15 food-at-home categories examined in the Food Price Outlook also varied widely. Average prices increased from March 2026 to April 2026 for nine of these categories, were unchanged for two categories, and decreased for four categories. Seven categories experienced a large price swing, defined as a 1-month price increase or decrease of at least 1.0 percent. Prices rose by 3.1 percent for fresh vegetables, 3.1 percent for beef and veal, 1.7 percent for other meats, 1.5 percent for fish and seafood, and 1.2 percent for fresh fruit. Egg prices fell by 1.7 percent, while prices for sugar and sweets fell by 1.4 percent.
Economic Research Service (ERS) May 2026 Forecast
In 2026, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.2 to 4.7 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 3.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.3 to 5.2 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.5 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.8 to 4.2 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food prices increased 3.4 percent, including prices for food at home (3.5-percent increase) and food away from home (3.4-percent increase). This convergence in growth rates was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) affected egg and poultry prices. The Russia-Ukraine war and economy-wide inflationary pressures, such as high energy costs, also contributed to food price inflation. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent. Food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent.
In 2023, food price growth slowed as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent.
Food prices rose by 2.3 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, slower than they had increased during 2020−23. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, lower than their historical average pace of growth (2.6 percent per year). Food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, still faster than their historical average (3.5 percent per year).
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2026, food-away-from-home prices are predicted to rise at their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (3.5 percent). Food-at-home prices are predicted to rise 3.2 percent, faster than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (2.6 percent).
In 2026, among the 15 food-at-home categories examined in the Food Price Outlook, prices for 9 categories are predicted to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. These include beef and veal, other meats, fish and seafood, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and other foods. Prices for three other food-at-home categories are predicted to grow slower than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. These include pork, poultry, and cereal and bakery products. Prices for eggs, dairy products, and fats and oils are predicted to decline in 2026 compared to 2025.
Beef and veal prices increased by 3.1 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 after decreasing by 0.4 percent from February 2026 to March 2026. Beef and veal prices were 14.8 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. The ERS Cattle & Beef - Sector at a Glance topic page reports that the U.S. cattle herd has decreased in size since 2019. However, according to analyses and forecasts reported in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, consumer demand has remained strong in the face of tighter supplies. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 12.1 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 6.6 to 18.1 percent.
Pork prices rose 0.4 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 2.3 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Pork prices are predicted to increase 1.5 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -2.2 to 5.2 percent.
Poultry prices were unchanged from March 2026 to April 2026 and 0.5 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Poultry prices are predicted to increase 0.5 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -2.3 to 3.4 percent.
Retail egg prices decreased 1.7 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 39.2 percent lower in April 2026 than in April 2025. An ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022 has caused egg prices to increase by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. Retail egg prices increased 32.2 percent in 2022, 1.4 percent in 2023, 8.5 percent in 2024, and 21.9 percent in 2025. However, USDA is projecting an increase in egg production in 2026 over 2025. There were fewer new detections of HPAI during the first quarter of calendar year 2026 than there were during the first quarter of calendar year 2025. Moreover, as discussed in April’s ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the availability of replacement pullets has been sufficient in 2026 to cover both regular flock turnover and unpredictable HPAI-related losses. Egg prices are predicted to decrease 29.8 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -38.8 to -18.3 percent.
Retail fresh vegetable prices increased by 3.1 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 after increasing by 0.9 percent from February 2026 to March 2026. Prices for fresh vegetables were 11.5 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. U.S. consumers purchase a mix of fresh vegetables, and rates of food price inflation have varied by type of product. Retail prices for fresh tomatoes were 39.7 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. By contrast, retail prices for fresh potatoes were 3.0 percent lower in April 2026 than in April 2025. Overall, prices for fresh vegetables at retail stores are predicted to increase 7.8 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 3.9 to 11.9 percent.
Retail fresh fruit prices increased by 1.2 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 2.1 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Prices for fresh fruits are predicted to increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -0.9 to 4.7 percent.
Prices for sugar and sweets decreased by 1.4 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 after decreasing by 1.0 percent from February 2026 to March 2026, but were still 6.3 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Prices have increased primarily for candy and chewing gum, a subcomponent of the CPI for sugars and sweets that includes most types of chocolate candy. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 6.3 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 4.1 to 8.4 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages increased by 0.8 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 5.1 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages have been increasing faster than the 20-year historical rate due in part to higher global coffee prices. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 5.8 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 3.6 to 7.9 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
Farm-level cattle prices increased 4.8 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 17.7 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. A cyclical contraction of the cattle herd has resulted in tight cattle supplies and driven farm-level cattle prices higher. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase by 11.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 2.0 to 22.0 percent. Wholesale beef prices decreased 0.8 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 but were still 14.2 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase by 8.0 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.3 percent to 23.4 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs increased 163.1 percent in 2022, decreased 28.3 percent in 2023, increased 43.1 percent in 2024, and increased 31.6 percent in 2025, primarily due to the spread of HPAI and reductions in egg production. However, U.S. egg production is recovering. Farm-level egg prices fell 49.7 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 86.4 percent lower in April 2026 than in April 2025. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to decrease by 81.6 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -87.5 percent to -67.5 percent.
Prices for farm-level milk rose 20.6 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 after rising 7.7 percent from February 2026 to March 2026. Farm-level milk prices decreased in 2025 with increases in U.S. milk production. However, after these two consecutive, month-on-month increases, prices for farm-level milk were 13.2 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to increase 15.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.0 percent to 41.1 percent.
Prices for farm-level vegetables increased 5.7 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 56.3 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. Farm-level vegetable prices are predicted to increase 20.5 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 3.6 percent to 42.7 percent.
Prices for farm-level fruits increased 4.3 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 but were still 6.4 percent lower in April 2026 than in April 2025. Farm-level fruit prices are predicted to decrease by 6.3 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -15.2 percent to 4.2 percent.
Prices for farm-level wheat increased 1.9 percent from March 2026 to April 2026 and were 7.9 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025. In 2026, farm-level wheat prices are predicted to increase 10.1 percent, with a prediction interval of -5.4 to 30.0 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see ERS outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.