The ERS Food Price Outlook (FPO) provides data on food prices and forecasts annual food price changes up to 18 months in the future. On a monthly basis, ERS forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices for the current year and, beginning in July each year, for the following year. These forecasts are primarily based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
The all-items CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI for food is the component of the all-items CPI measuring the changes in retail food prices. ERS examines changes in the CPI for food and constructs forecasts of the CPI for food. Changes in the structures of food and agricultural economies add complexity to forecasting the CPI for food. However, these forecasts provide important signals to farmers, processors, wholesalers, consumers, and policymakers.
ERS also analyzes and forecasts the PPI for farm-level agricultural and wholesale food markets. Like the CPI, the PPI measures price changes over time; however, instead of changes in retail prices, the PPI measures the average change in prices paid to domestic producers for their output. The PPI represents data for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Changes in farm-level and wholesale-level food PPIs are of particular interest in forecasting food CPIs.
ERS typically releases its monthly CPI and PPI forecast updates on the 25th of the month; however, if the 25th falls on a weekend or a holiday, the monthly update will be published earlier. In addition to these monthly updates, ERS also maintains a record of its previous forecasts. Previous CPI and PPI forecasts are available in the “Historical Data” file.
ERS periodically updates and improves FPO forecasting methods. In 2023, ERS replaced a methodology in use since 2011 with a new methodology. Tables in the “Consumer Price Index,” “Producer Price Index,” and “Historical Data” files—as well as the Summary Findings—have been constructed based on the revised methodology since 2023.
For more information on FPO forecasting methods as well as differences between previous and current methods, see the 2022 ERS report, Time-Series Methods for Forecasting and Modeling Uncertainty in the Food Price Outlook.
For years prior to 2023, the FPO historical forecast series shows the point estimates and prediction intervals that would have been produced in each month based on the data available at the time and the current methods.
Monthly forecasts based on the previous methodology are also available as originally published in the “Archived Data” file. Archived CPI forecasts are available going back to 2003 and archived PPI forecasts are available going back to 2014. Users are reminded that the Historical Data series and the archived forecasts are not comparable due to changes in forecasting methods.
Note: October–December 2025 estimates were not released. ERS resumed monthly Food Price Outlook updates on January 23, 2026.
Watch an overview of the data and analysis available from the Food Price Outlook data product, including highlights of its uses, and a demonstration of how to find the data