Summary Findings
Food Price Outlook, 2024
This page summarizes the March 2024 forecasts, which incorporate the February 2024 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.6 percent from January 2024 to February 2024 and was up 3.2 percent from February 2023. The CPI for all food increased 0.1 percent from January 2024 to February 2024, and food prices were 2.2 percent higher than in February 2023.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.1 percent from January 2024 to February 2024 and was 1.0 percent higher than February 2023; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.1 percent in February 2024 and was 4.5 percent higher than February 2023.
Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 2.5 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.6 to 4.5 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.6 percent, with a prediction interval of -1.3 to 4.5 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.9 to 5.2 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the workbooks) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this difference.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 inflation rate. In 2021, all food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second-half of the year. No food categories tracked by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) decreased in price in 2021 compared with their prices in 2020.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices, along with the conflict in Ukraine, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs. All food price categories increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent. Food price growth slowed in 2023 as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent. While prices increased for all food categories except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
From January 2024 to February 2024, prices increased for eight food-at-home categories, declined for six categories, and remained unchanged for one category. Prices for food-away-from home rose by 0.1 percent, the slowest monthly increase since March 2021. Year-over-year price increases continued to slow for all food, food at home, and food away from home. Prices fell for four food-at-home categories between February 2023 and February 2024: eggs, fish and seafood, dairy products, and pork. In 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average. Prices are predicted to increase for 12 food-at-home categories and decrease for 3 food-at-home categories in 2024, though the measures of uncertainty do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices during the year for most categories.
Prices declined or remained steady for meat, poultry, and fish categories in February 2024. Beef and veal prices were unchanged between January and February 2024 but remained 7.4 percent higher than February 2023 due to tight supplies and strong demand, while pork prices fell 0.6 percent in February 2024 and were 1.6 percent lower than February 2023 due to higher supplies. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 2.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -4.0 to 10.3 percent, and pork prices are predicted to decrease 1.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -7.4 to 4.7 percent. Poultry prices decreased by 1.3 percent in February 2024 and were 0.2 percent higher than February 2023. Fish and seafood prices fell by 0.7 percent in February 2024, the third straight month of price declines, and prices for fish and seafood were 3.9 percent lower than February 2023. Poultry prices are predicted to increase 0.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.5 to 3.6 percent, and fish and seafood prices are predicted to decrease 1.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -4.5 to 1.3 percent.
Retail egg prices increased 8.4 percent in February 2024 but remained 17.0 percent below February 2023 prices. An outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022 contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock. After egg prices peaked in January 2023, they declined or stabilized through much of the year. However, prices increased again in recent months after HPAI was confirmed in egg layers in November 2023 for the first time since December 2022. Price impacts of the outbreak will be monitored closely. Egg prices are predicted to increase 4.8 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -8.8 to 21.0 percent. This wide prediction interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.
In addition to eggs, prices rose by at least 0.5 percent for three other categories in February 2024: 0.9 percent for sugar and sweets, 0.6 percent for cereals and bakery products, and 0.5 percent for fats and oils. Sugar and sweets prices are predicted to increase by 5.8 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 2.7 to 9.0 percent. Prices for cereals and bakery products are predicted to increase 1.3 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -1.6 to 4.3 percent. Prices for fats and oils are predicted to increase 4.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.0 to 9.6 percent. Sugar and sweets and fats and oils are expected to experience among the highest price growth of all food-at-home categories in 2024—prediction intervals for both categories are at or above zero.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that it reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods. These farm- and wholesale-level prices give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the downstream CPIs. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2024, prices are predicted to decrease for seven PPI categories and increase for five categories, and prices for one category are predicted to remain unchanged, though the measures of uncertainty for most PPI categories do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices in 2024. Greater volatility in farm- and wholesale-level prices lead to wider prediction intervals for these products compared to retail-level products.
Prices for wholesale pork fell 4.6 percent in February 2024, after spiking by 17.4 percent in December 2023, and were 8.3 percent higher than February 2023. Prices for wholesale pork are predicted to increase 6.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -8.3 to 23.4 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs rose by 53.8 percent from January to February 2024 and were 15.1 percent higher than February 2023. New cases of HPAI were confirmed in egg-layer flocks in November 2023 for the first time since December 2022, though fewer birds and flocks have been affected in early 2024 compared to November and December 2023. The effects of recent HPAI cases on farm-level egg prices will be closely monitored. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 34.4 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -23.2 to 165.0 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Prices declined for several farm-level products from January to February 2024. Prices for farm-level milk fell by 2.7 percent in February 2024 and were 9.4 percent lower than February 2023. Farm-level soybean prices declined by 4.6 percent, falling to 24.4 percent below February 2023. Prices for farm-level wheat decreased 5.2 percent and were 32.1 percent lower than February 2023. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to decrease 5.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -22.0 to 17.9 percent. Prices for farm-level soybeans are predicted to decrease 16.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -31.2 to 2.9 percent, and prices for farm-level wheat are predicted to decrease 20.2 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -35.1 to -0.1 percent.
Prices for farm-level fruits also declined in February, by 12.7 percent, and were 7.2 percent below February 2023. In contrast, prices increased 8.9 percent for farm-level vegetables in February 2024, following a 9.6-percent increase in January. Despite large price increases in January and February, prices for farm-level vegetables were only 1.4 percent higher than February 2023. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to experience no change in 2024, with a prediction interval of -9.2 to 10.4 percent. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to decrease 0.2 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -19.2 to 25.1 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.