Note: October–December 2025 estimates were not released. ERS resumed monthly Food Price Outlook updates on January 23, 2026. Forecasts are based on the most recent Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets available at the time of release.
Food Price Outlook, 2026
This page summarizes the January 2026 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the December 2025 Consumer Price Index and the November 2025 Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, was largely unchanged from November 2025 to December 2025. It was up 2.7 percent from December 2024.
Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.6 percent from November 2025 to December 2025. Food prices in December 2025 were 3.1 percent higher than in December 2024.
The level of food price inflation varied depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.7 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and was 4.1 percent higher than in December 2024.
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.5 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and was 2.4 percent higher than in December 2024.
Rates of price change for the 15 food-at-home categories examined in the Food Price Outlook also varied widely. Average prices declined from November 2025 to December 2025 for 4 of these categories and increased for 11 categories. Some categories experienced large price swings, defined as a 1-month price increase or decrease of at least 1.0 percent. Three categories, fats and oils, processed fruits and vegetables, and other foods, experienced large price increases. Two categories, pork and eggs, experienced large price decreases.
Economic Research Service (ERS) January 2026 Forecast
In 2026, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.3 to 5.9 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.7 percent, with a prediction interval of -2.3 to 6.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.6 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.1 to 6.2 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food prices increased 3.4 percent, including prices for food at home (3.5-percent increase) and food away from home (3.4-percent increase). This convergence in growth rates was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) affected egg and poultry prices. The Russia-Ukraine war and economy-wide inflationary pressures, such as high energy costs, also contributed to food price inflation. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent. Food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent.
In 2023, food price growth slowed as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent.
Food prices rose by 2.3 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, slower than they had increased during 2020−23. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, lower than their historical average pace of growth (2.6 percent per year). Food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, still faster than their historical average (3.5 percent per year).
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2026, overall food prices are predicted to rise 3.0 percent. Food-away-from home prices are predicted to rise 4.6 percent, faster than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (3.5 percent). However, food-at-home prices are predicted to rise 1.7 percent, slower than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (2.6 percent).
In 2026, among the 15 food-at-home categories examined in the Food Price Outlook, prices for 6 categories are predicted to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. These include beef and veal, other meats, fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and other foods. Prices for six other food-at-home categories are predicted to grow at a slower rate than their 20-year historical average. Prices for eggs, dairy products, and pork are predicted to decline in 2026 compared to 2025.
Beef and veal prices increased by 0.4 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 16.4 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024. The ERS Cattle & Beef - Sector at a Glance topic page reports that the U.S. cattle herd has decreased in size since 2019. However, according to analyses and forecasts reported in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, consumer demand has remained strong in the face of tighter supplies. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 9.4 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 0.4 to 19.6 percent.
Pork prices fell 1.4 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 0.8 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024. Pork prices are predicted to decrease 0.3 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -6.6 to 6.3 percent.
Poultry prices increased by 0.3 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 1.4 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024. Poultry prices are predicted to increase 0.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.6 to 5.2 percent.
Retail egg prices decreased -1.2 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 20.9 percent lower in December 2025 than in December 2024. Retail egg prices have risen due to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. In April 2025, confirmed cases of HPAI tapered, according to the May 2025 ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. U.S. egg production has since increased and is expected to continue recovering in 2026. Egg prices are predicted to decrease 22.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -39.5 to 1.1 percent.
Retail fresh vegetable prices increased by 0.3 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 but were still 0.2 percent lower in December 2025 than in December 2024. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to increase 2.0 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.2 to 8.7 percent.
Retail fresh fruit prices fell by 0.8 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 but were 0.7 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024. Prices for fresh fruits are predicted to increase 0.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -4.6 to 5.5 percent.
Prices for sugar and sweets increased by 0.9 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 6.9 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024. Prices increased in 2025 primarily for candy and chewing gum, a subcomponent of the CPI for sugars and sweets that includes most types of chocolate candy. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 6.7 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 3.0 to 10.6 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages increased by 0.3 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 5.1 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages have been increasing faster than the 20-year historical rate due in part to higher global coffee prices. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 4.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 0.4 to 8.2 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
Farm-level cattle prices were 23.9 percent higher in November 2025 than in November 2024, driven by tight cattle supplies from a cyclical contraction of the cattle herd. Wholesale beef prices were also 15.1 percent higher in November 2025 than in November 2024. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase by 20.8 percent in 2025. They are predicted to increase by 6.1 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -10.4 to 25.9 percent. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase by 13.9 percent in 2025 and increase by 6.9 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -14.9 percent to 35.1 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs were 45.0 percent lower in November 2025 than they were in November 2024 as U.S. egg production continues to recover. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase by 32.4 percent in 2025. They are predicted to decrease by 39.4 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -75.1 percent to 56.2 percent.
Prices for farm-level milk were 23.3 percent lower in November 2025 than in November 2024. In 2025 and 2026, prices are predicted to decrease as milk production increases. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to decrease by 7.3 percent in 2025. They are predicted to decrease by 18.4 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -41.9 percent to 15.3 percent.
Vegetable prices can undergo large swings based on weather, production, seasonality, and other factors. Farm-level vegetable prices are predicted to decrease by 7.7 percent in 2025. They are predicted to increase by 11.0 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -14.4 percent to 44.6 percent.
Farm-level fruit prices are predicted to decrease by 0.6 percent in 2025. They are predicted to increase by 2.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -10.1 percent to 15.8 percent. Prices for fruit, like those for vegetables, can undergo large swings based on weather, production, seasonality, and other factors.
Prices peaked for farm-level wheat in the first half of 2022 following the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. After decreasing by 23.1 percent in 2023 and by 22.3 percent in 2024, farm-level wheat prices are expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025 and 2026. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 10.8 percent in 2025. They are predicted to decrease by 4.2 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -29.4 to 30.2 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see ERS outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.