Food Price Outlook, 2025 and 2026
This page summarizes the July 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the June 2025 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.3 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and was up 2.7 percent from June 2024.
Food prices rose at about the same rate as overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.3 percent from May 2025 to June 2025. Food prices in June 2025 were 3.0 percent higher than in June 2024.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.2 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and was 2.4 percent higher than in June 2024.
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and was 3.8 percent higher than in June 2024.
USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) July 2025 Forecast
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise at about the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.9 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.2 to 3.7 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 2.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 3.4 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.5 to 4.4 percent.
In 2026, overall food prices are expected to increase more slowly than the historical average rate of growth. In 2026, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.7 percent, with a prediction interval of -3.0 to 8.6 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.6 percent, with a prediction interval of -6.5 to 10.5 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.0 to 6.2 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the Russia-Ukraine war, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food price growth continued to slow in 2024, rising by 2.3 percent, as those factors combined with cooling labor pressures, lower energy prices, and changes in consumer demand. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024, lower than their historical average pace of growth, and food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent, slightly outpacing their historical average.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase by 2.2 percent in 2025, slower than the 20-year historical average rate of price increase (2.6 percent). Changes in trade patterns, the incidence of plant and animal disease, and weather events that impact growing conditions can all contribute to retail food price changes. Factors that contribute to inflation across the economy are also important—including interest rates, energy prices, labor market tightness, and consumer demand.
From May 2025 to June 2025, prices increased for 10 food-at-home categories, were stable for 1 category, and declined for 4 food-at-home categories. Some categories experienced large price swings, defined as a 1-month price increase or decrease of at least 1.0 percent. From May 2025 to June 2025, beef and veal, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages experienced large upward price swings while one category—eggs—experienced a large price decrease.
During 2025 as a whole, prices for eggs, beef and veal, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. Prices for poultry are anticipated to rise at their 20-year historical average rate of growth. Prices for seven other food-at-home categories are predicted to grow at a slower rate. Prices are predicted to decline for other meats, fats and oils, and fresh vegetables.
From May 2025 to June 2025, retail egg prices decreased for the third month in a row. Egg prices fell 10.8 percent between May and June after having fallen by 7.5 percent from April to May and by 10.5 percent from March to April. Egg prices in June 2025 were still 27.3 percent higher than in June 2024. Retail egg prices continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. In April 2025, confirmed cases of HPAI tapered, according to the May 2025 USDA, ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. The number of confirmed detections subsequently remained low in May and June compared with earlier in the year. Egg prices are predicted to increase 24.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 15.4 to 36.4 percent. This includes price increases already realized from January through March 2025. Even if retail egg prices continue to decrease over the coming months, higher prices realized earlier in the year will continue to factor into the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasts the annual average change in prices across all months in 2025 compared to all months in 2024. It does not forecast the 12-month change from the forecast month.
Beef and veal prices increased by 2.4 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 following increases of 0.4 percent from April to May, 0.7 percent from March to April, 1.6 percent from February to March, and 2.0 percent from January to February. Prices for beef and veal were 10.6 percent higher in June 2025 than in June 2024. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase in 2025 due to tight supplies and continued consumer demand. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 8.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 5.4 to 12.7 percent.
Pork prices rose 0.2 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and were 0.5 percent higher than in June 2024. In contrast to beef, pork production is projected to increase in 2025. Pork prices are predicted to increase 0.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -1.9 to 3.7 percent.
Poultry prices rose by 0.9 percent from May 2025 to June 2025. Poultry prices were 3.4 percent higher in June 2025 than in June 2024 and are predicted to increase in 2025 due to strong demand amid higher prices for other animal protein products. Poultry prices are predicted to increase 2.7 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 4.2 percent.
Prices for fresh vegetables rose by 0.7 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 but were still 1.3 percent lower than in June 2024. During 2025, fresh vegetable prices have declined from highs reached in 2024. According to the December 2024 USDA, ERS Vegetable and Pulses Outlook, unfavorable growing conditions in 2024, including extreme weather in parts of California and Florida, contributed to notable increases in grower prices for key crops like lettuce, onions, carrots, and tomatoes. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to decrease by 2.0 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.4 to 0.5 percent.
Prices for sugar and sweets rose by 1.2 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 after having risen by 0.6 percent from April to May and by 0.3 percent from March to April. Prices for sugar and sweets were 5.5 percent higher in June 2025 than in June 2024. Prices are up for sugar and sugar substitutes as well as for candy and chewing gum—subcomponents of the CPI for sugars and sweets. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 5.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 3.8 to 6.5 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages increased by 1.3 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and were 4.4 percent higher in June 2025 than in June 2024. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase faster than the 20-year historical rate due in part to higher global coffee prices. Orange juice prices have also increased in recent years due to lower domestic citrus production related to citrus greening and hurricane damage. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 4.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 2.8 to 5.4 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2025, prices are predicted to increase for seven PPI categories and decrease for six categories. Prediction intervals for these forecasts are large compared with prediction intervals for retail-level food products due to greater volatility in farm-level and wholesale-level prices.
Farm-level cattle prices rose by 6.0 percent from May 2025 to June 2025. Farm-level cattle prices were 22.7 percent higher in June 2025 than in June 2024, driven by tight cattle supplies from a cyclical contraction of the cattle herd. After increasing 4.9 percent from May 2025 to June 2025, wholesale beef prices were also 9.3 percent higher than in June 2024. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase 21.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 14.4 to 29.8 percent. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase 9.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.0 to 20.7 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 21.8 percent from May 2025 to June 2025. Farm-level egg prices have experienced large monthly changes as the ongoing HPAI outbreak continues to affect egg-layer flocks. However, confirmed detections of HPAI in egg layers have eased significantly during the past few months, which suggests moderation in future PPI farm-level egg prices if HPAI cases remain low. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 49.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 21.3 to 105.4 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Prices for farm-level milk fell by 5.5 percent from May 2025 to June 2025. Farm-level milk prices were 11.7 percent lower in June 2025 than in June 2024. In 2025, prices are predicted to decrease with increases in milk production. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to decrease by 9.0 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -17.3 to 1.5 percent.
In June 2025, prices for farm-level fruits were up 3.1 percent from May 2025 and 11.1 percent higher than in June 2024. Prices for farm-level vegetables were down 1.7 percent from May 2025 and 20.7 percent lower than in June 2024. Farm-level fruit and vegetable prices can undergo large swings based on weather, production, and seasonality. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to increase by 0.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -5.6 to 6.6 percent. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to decrease by 18.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -27.6 to -5.8 percent.
In June 2025, prices for farm-level wheat rose by 3.6 percent from May 2025 but were 14.6 percent lower than in June 2024. Prices peaked in the first half of 2022 following the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. They then declined steadily before leveling off in the second half of 2024. After large price decreases in 2023 and 2024, farm-level wheat prices are expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 7.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -16.2 to 2.7 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA, ERS outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.