Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

FY 2019 U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $137.0 Billion, Imports at $129.0 Billion

U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal year (FY) 2019 are projected at $137.0 billion, down $4.5 billion from the February forecast

  • FY 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $137.0 billion, down $4.5 billion from the February 2019 forecast, largely due to decreases in soybeans and corn exports.
  • Soybean exports are forecast down $1.5 billion to $17.0 billion, driven by lower demand due to African Swine Fever, weak prices, and continuing trade tensions with China. Oilseed and oilseed products exports are down $1.4 billion from the February forecast to $26.4 billion, primarily due to lower soybean volume and unit prices.
  • Grain and feed exports are forecast down $2.7 billion to $31.0 billion following a projected decrease in corn exports from last quarter’s forecast.
  • Livestock, dairy, and poultry exports are lowered by $500 million, as decreases in beef and veal, hides and skins, and pork exports more than offset gains in dairy products.
  • Horticultural products are unchanged at $35.3 billion.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2019 are projected at $129.0 billion, up $1.0 billion from the February forecast

  • Agricultural imports in FY 2019 are forecast to increase to $129.0 billion, $1.0 billion above the February forecast and $1.5 billion above the total value of imports in fiscal year 2018.
  • Horticultural product imports are up $1.3 billion from the previous forecast for FY 2019 to $64.5 billion. Fresh fruit and vegetable imports each increased $100 million from the February forecast due to higher unit values.
  • Growth in miscellaneous horticultural products makes up a significant portion of the remaining increase in horticultural products.
  • U.S. imports of sugar and tropical products are forecast at $23.4 billion for FY 2019, a $100 million downward adjustment from the previous forecast.
  • Imports of sweeteners and products are expected be worth $1.6 billion, $100 million below the February forecast.
  • Total oilseeds and oilseed products imports are adjusted downward by $200 million to $9.4 billion due to reduced imports of vegetable oils.
  • Forecast imports for livestock, dairy, and poultry are raised $100 million to $17.2 billion.

 

Sluggish exports to Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, lead to lowered exports forecast for FY 2019

  • Exports to China are forecast down $2.5 billion to $6.5 billion due largely to lower than expected shipments of soybeans, hides and skins, and feeds and fodders.
  • Exports to Hong Kong are forecast down $800 million to $3.8 billion, primarily because of lower tree nut and meat sales.
  • The forecast for Southeast Asia is down $200 million to $3.3 billion as demand for cotton shipments is expected to decrease. Exports to South Asia are down $200 million to $1.5 billion, primarily a result of lower fresh fruit and cotton sales.
  • The forecasts for Canada and Mexico are unchanged from February at $21.5 billion and $19.7 billion, respectively. Wheat in Mexico offset strong demand for U.S. dairy products.
  • The forecast for South America is down $100 million as the crisis in Venezuela deepens.
  • Exports to Russia are raised $100 million as a result of strong planting seed sales.
  • Exports to North Africa are lowered $400 million to $3.2 billion, primarily due to weak bulk demand, particularly for wheat in Morocco and Algeria.

Significant increases to imports expected from Mexico and Southeast Asia in FY 2019

  • The largest adjustment in the Western Hemisphere is a $400 million projected increase in imports from Mexico and a $200 million increase in imports from South America.
  • The forecast for Asia is up $1.0 billion to $22.3 billion, driven by an increase of imports of horticultural products from Singapore.
  • South Asia is adjusted $100 million higher to $3.0 billion.
  • The import forecast for Oceania is lowered by $100 million to $6.0 billion due to a $200 million decrease in imports from New Zealand to $2.5 billion.
  • The forecast for imports from Europe decreases by $100 million to $25.4 billion, primarily due to a $100 million decrease in imports from the European Union.
  • The forecast for Africa and the Middle East are unchanged.

Last updated: Tuesday, August 20, 2019

For more information contact: Kamron Daugherty