Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

FY 2021 U.S. Exports Forecast Up $5.0 Billion to a Record $157.0 Billion; Imports at $137.5 Billion

The following interactive content provides highlights from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 are projected at $157.0 billion, up $5.0 billion from the November forecast, driven by higher oilseed and grain export forecasts. Soybean exports are forecast $1.1 billion higher to a record $27.4 billion due to strong demand from China and higher prices. Soybean meal exports are projected up $700 million, while total oilseed and product exports are forecast at a record $38.3 billion, a $2.0-billion increase from the previous projection. Corn exports are projected up $800 million, as higher unit values more than offset slightly lower volumes. Wheat exports are forecast at $6.9 billion, up $700 million, based on higher unit values. Overall grain and feed exports are forecast at $37.8 billion, $2.2 billion higher than the November forecast. Cotton exports are forecast up $600 million on higher unit values and volume. Livestock, dairy, and poultry exports are forecast up $300 million to $32.6 billion, as increases in beef and poultry product export forecasts more than offset declines in dairy products. Horticultural product exports are projected to remain unchanged at $34.5 billion.

Exports for China are raised $4.5 billion from the November forecast to a record $31.5 billion due to strong first quarter shipments and surging sales, most notably of corn. China is forecast to remain the largest U.S. agricultural market in FY 2021, followed by Canada and Mexico.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2021 are forecast at $137.5 billion, up $500 million from the November forecast, led by increases in livestock, dairy, and poultry imports.

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the February 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release.