Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

FY 2021 U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast Up $5.5 Billion to $140.5 Billion; Imports at $136.0 Billion

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2020

U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 are projected at $140.5 billion, up $5.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2020. This increase is primarily driven by higher exports of soybeans and corn. Soybean exports are forecast up $4.2 billion from FY 2020 to $20.4 billion, largely due to expected strong demand from China and reduced competition from Brazil. Corn exports are projected up $700 million to $9.0 billion on expectations of higher export volume. Horticultural product exports are forecast up $500 million to $35.0 billion with increasing sales of tree nuts and miscellaneous products. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast up $500 million to $32.3 billion in FY 2021, led by higher beef and veal, variety meat, dairy, and poultry exports. Cotton exports are forecast down $400 million to $5.0 billion on smaller volume and unit values. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $18.5 billion, an increase of $4.5 billion from FY 2020, largely on higher expected soybean sales. Agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico are forecast at $21.0 billion and $19.3 billion, respectively.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2021 are forecast at $136.0 billion, $4.3 billion higher than revised FY 2020 due largely to a $3.9 billion increase in horticultural products, and a $700 million increase in grain and feed imports.

For FY 2020, the export forecast of $135.0 billion represents a reduction of $1.5 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to a reduction in the forecast for horticultural, beef and veal, and soybean exports. Imports are adjusted up $1.5 billion from the May forecast at $131.7 billion resulting from a $1.5 billion increase in horticultural products, and a $400 million increase in beef and veal imports that equals the reduction in forecast imports of sugar and tropical products.

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the August 12, 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release and the U.S. production forecasts thereof.

Last updated: Friday, September 04, 2020

For more information, contact: Bart Kenner