Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2021 Forecast Up $7.0 Billion to Record $164.0 Billion; Imports at $141.8 Billion

The following interactive content provides highlights from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2021.


U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2021 are projected at $164.0 billion, up $7.0 billion from the February forecast, led by increases in corn, soybeans, and livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Corn exports are forecast $3.2 billion higher to $17.2 billion due to record volume and higher unit values, driven by strong demand and reduced competition. Soybean exports are projected up $1.5 billion to $28.9 billion as volumes are forecast at record levels and demand from China remains strong. Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected to increase to $34.2 billion, $1.6 billion higher than the February projection, due to increases in the dairy, pork, and beef forecasts. Dairy exports are forecast at $7.0 billion, up $500 million due to higher volumes and unit values, particularly for skimmed milk powder and whey and whey products. The forecast for pork exports is up $400 million, on higher unit values and recovering demand in several markets. Beef and veal, beef and pork variety meat, and poultry and product exports are projected up $200 million each. Cotton exports are forecast up $200 million on higher volumes. The forecast for horticultural exports is reduced by $400 million to $34.1 billion due to lower tree nut unit values.

Exports for China are raised $3.5 billion from the February forecast to a record $35.0 billion due to record shipments of soybeans, corn, tree nuts, beef, wheat, and poultry products. China is forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2021, followed by Canada and Mexico.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2021 are projected at $141.8 billion, up $4.3 billion from the February forecast. This increase is primarily driven by expected rising imports of livestock, horticultural, and sugar and tropical products.


The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release.