Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2024 Forecast at $172.0 Billion; Imports at $199.5 Billion
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U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2024 are projected at $172.0 billion, down $5.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2023. This reduction is largely driven by lower exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and dairy products. Soybean exports are forecast down $5.8 billion to $26.5 billion on lower volumes due to a lower U.S. production forecast, competition from South America, and high domestic crush demand. Soybean meal exports are projected at $5.9 billion, down $800 million as lower unit values more than offset higher export volumes. Overall oilseed and product exports are projected $6.0 billion lower to $37.5 billion. Dairy exports are forecast down $1.2 billion to $7.4 billion due to declines in global export prices of key products. Beef exports are forecast to decline $600 million to $8.5 billion on lower volumes due to tight U.S. supplies. Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected at $37.6 billion, down $1.4 billion from FY 2023. Cotton exports are forecast at $5.8 billion, $300 million lower due to slightly reduced unit values. Horticulture exports are up $1.6 billion to a record $39.5 billion, driven by higher exports of tree nuts and processed fruits and vegetables. Ethanol exports are forecast at $3.3 billion, down $300 million as falling unit values more than offset higher export volumes. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $30.0 billion, $3.0 billion lower from FY 2023, driven by weaker outlook for soybeans, dairy, and beef. Agricultural exports to Mexico and Canada are forecast at $28.2 billion and $27.5 billion, respectively, both $300 million lower from FY 2023.
For FY 2023, the export forecast is at $177.5 billion, down $3.5 billion from the May forecast, largely due to decreases in corn, wheat, and tree nut exports.
U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2024 are forecast at $199.5 billion, $3.0 billion higher than the revised FY 2023 estimate due to higher imports of horticultural and livestock products and stabilizing global prices. For FY 2023, agricultural imports are forecast at $196.5 billion, a decrease of $1.5 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to easing import prices throughout FY 2023.
The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the August 11, 2023, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release, and the U.S. production forecasts thereof.