Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2024 Forecast at $169.5 Billion; Imports at $200.0 Billion

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: November 2023

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2024 are projected at $169.5 billion, down $2.5 billion from the August forecast. This revision is primarily driven by reductions in grain and feed, as well as livestock, poultry, and dairy exports. Wheat exports are forecast down $800 million to $6.0 billion on lower unit values and ongoing competition from Russia and the European Union (EU). Corn exports are forecast down $500 million to $12.8 billion due to lower unit values, as ample global supplies continue to ease prices. Sorghum exports are projected $200 million lower due to a smaller U.S. crop. Overall grain and feed exports are projected to decrease by $1.3 billion to $37.5 billion. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to decrease by $1.3 billion to $36.3 billion due to declines across most products. Beef exports are projected $300 million lower to $8.2 billion due to continued tight U.S. supplies. Pork exports are forecast down $300 million to $6.6 billion on weaker demand from most Asian markets. Poultry and products are projected down $200 million to $6.6 billion due to lower broiler meat volumes. Dairy products are forecast down $200 million to $7.2 billion on decreased price competitiveness. Soybean exports are projected $500 million lower from the August forecast to $26.0 billion on lower exportable supplies. Overall oilseed and product exports are forecast at $37.2 billion, down $300 million as decreases in soybean and soybean oil exports more than offset an increase in soybean meal exports. Cotton exports are forecast at $5.7 billion, down $100 million due to lower unit values. The forecast for ethanol exports is raised by $300 million to $3.6 billion due to higher volumes more than offsetting lower unit values. Horticultural product exports are unchanged at $39.5 billion.

Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $29.5 billion, down $500 million from the August projection. Exports to Mexico and Canada are forecast at $27.9 billion and $27.7 billion, respectively.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2024 are forecast at $200.0 billion, up $500 million from the August projection, largely driven by the strong U.S. dollar and resilient domestic demand for agricultural imports, especially for beef and veal, vegetable oils, and grain products. 

 

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the November 9, 2023, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release and the U.S. production forecasts thereof.