Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2023 Forecast at $184.5 Billion; Imports at $199.0 Billion
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: February 2023
U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are projected at $184.5 billion, down $5.5 billion from the November forecast. The export forecasts for all major commodity groups are down, with the largest decreases projected for corn, sorghum, and soybeans. Corn exports are forecast $1.9 billion lower to $16.6 billion on lower volumes. Sorghum export projection is halved to $800 million on sharply lower U.S. production. Overall grain and feed exports are projected at $43.8 billion, down $2.4 billion from November. Soybean exports are forecast down $800 million to $32.0 billion due to lower U.S. supplies and higher competition from Brazil. Total oilseed and product exports are projected at $43.4 billion, down $900 million from the previous forecast; besides the reduction in soybeans, a lower soybean oil export projection is offset by higher expected soybean meal exports. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to decrease by $900 million to $40.5 billion, as declines in beef, poultry, and dairy exports more than offset increases in pork exports. Cotton exports are forecast down $100 million to $5.9 billion on lower volumes. Horticultural product exports are down $500 million to $39.0 billion due to declines in tree nut exports. Ethanol exports are forecast at $3.6 billion, down $600 million on lower volumes and reduced demand outlook.
China is forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports at $34.0 billion, unchanged from the previous forecast. Exports to Mexico are forecast to remain unchanged at $28.0 billion, while exports to Canada are forecast down $500 million to $27.8 billion on lower corn demand.
U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $199.0 billion, unchanged from the November forecast, as increases in livestock, poultry, and dairy, grains and feed, and oilseeds and product imports offset decreases in horticultural and sugar and tropical product imports.
The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the February, 2023, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release, and the U.S. production forecasts therein.