Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2022 Forecast at Record $191.0 Billion; Imports at $180.5 Billion

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2022

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2022 are forecast at a record $191.0 billion, up $7.5 billion from the February forecast, led by increases in corn, cotton, and soybeans. Corn exports are forecast $2.2 billion higher to $19.1 billion due to record volumes and higher unit values. Overall grain and feed exports are projected $3.8 billion higher at $46.7 billion, with gains across all commodities except rice. Cotton exports are forecast at a record $9.0 billion, up $1.0 billion from the previous forecast, driven by higher unit values. Soybean exports are projected up $1.0 billion to a record $32.3 billion as higher volumes more than offset lower unit values. Total oilseed and product exports are forecast $700 million higher to a record $44.3 billion. Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected to increase by $1.2 billion to $40.4 billion, with gains across all major commodities except pork. Beef and veal exports are projected to increase by $700 million on higher unit values as demand in East Asia is expected to remain firm. The projection for ethanol exports is forecast at a record $3.8 billion, up $900 million from the previous forecast due mainly to higher unit values. Horticultural exports are unchanged at $38.5 billion.

The forecast for China is unchanged at $36.0 billion from February, and a record if realized. Exports to the Western Hemisphere are projected $6.5 billion higher, with Mexico and Canada forecast up $2.5 billion each. China is forecast to remain the largest U.S. agricultural market in FY 2022, followed by Mexico and Canada.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2022 are projected at $180.5 billion, up $8.0 billion from the February forecast. This increase is primarily driven by rising unit values.

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the May 12, 2022, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release, and the U.S. production forecasts thereof. Additionally, Russia’s recent military invasion of Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in that region and globally. The forecasts in this report represent an ongoing assessment of the short-term impacts resulting from this action.