Farm Sector Profits Forecast to Fall When Adjusted for Inflation
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $158.4 billion for calendar year 2026, a decrease of $4.3 billion (2.6 percent) relative to 2025 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $9.1 billion (5.5 percent) in 2026 relative to 2025. Despite this expected decline, 2026 net farm income would remain above its 20-year average (2006–25) in inflation-adjusted (2026) dollars.
Net cash farm income is forecast at $176.4 billion for 2026, an increase of $0.7 billion (0.4 percent) relative to 2025 (not adjusted for inflation). When adjusted for inflation, 2026 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $4.6 billion (2.5 percent) from 2025 yet stay above its 2006–25 average. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming, as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.
Read the full 2026 forecast for farm sector income or see data only at tables on farm income indicators.
The average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to increase 7.1 percent from 2025 to $121,700 per farm in 2026 in nominal terms. Farm businesses are farms with an annual gross cash farm income (GCFI)—annual income before expenses—of at least $350,000 or operations with less than $350,000 in annual GCFI but that report farming as the operator's primary occupation. Among the nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions, six are expected to see average net cash farm income rise in 2026 relative to 2025 in nominal dollars. Farm businesses located in the Northern Great Plains region are projected to see the largest increase in average net cash income. When grouped by commodity specialization, farm businesses specializing in crops are forecast to see higher average net cash farm income in 2026, except specialty crop farm businesses. All animal/animal product commodity specializations are forecast to see lower average net farm income.
Read the full 2026 forecast for farm business income or see data on Average (Farm-level) Net Cash Income.
On the farm sector balance sheet, equity is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026. In nominal terms, equity is forecast to increase by $102.9 billion (2.7 percent) from 2025 to $3.86 trillion in 2026 but decline slightly (0.3 percent) when adjusted for inflation. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase by $129.3 billion (3.0 percent) nominally to $4.47 trillion in 2026 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. But when adjusted for inflation, total assets are expected to remain nearly unchanged from 2025. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase by $26.4 billion (4.6 percent) in nominal terms to $605.1 billion in 2026. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to increase slightly from 13.34 percent in 2025 to 13.54 percent in 2026. Working capital is forecast to increase 3.5 percent nominally in 2026 after declining 15.0 percent in 2025.
Read the full 2026 forecast for farm assets, debt and wealth or see data on the farm balance sheet.
Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast to Increase in 2025 and 2026
Median total farm household income is forecast to increase to $108,460 in 2026, a 1.2-percent increase from 2025 after adjusting for inflation (4.8 percent in nominal terms).
Farm households typically receive income from farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households was -$495 in 2025 after inflation and is forecast to remain stable at -$467 in 2026. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Median off-farm income was $94,140 in 2025 and is forecast to remain relatively stable after adjusting for inflation at $93,975 in 2026 (though a 3.4-percent increase in nominal terms). Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.
See the Farm Household Income and Characteristics data product tables for financial statistics of farm operator households.
Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, September 3). Farm sector income & finances: Highlights from the farm income forecast.