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U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, February 5). Farm sector income & finances: Highlights from the farm income forecast.
Outlook for 2026 Farm Sector Profits Mixed
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $153.4 billion for calendar year 2026, a decrease of $1.2 billion (0.7 percent) relative to 2025 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $4.1 billion (2.6 percent) in 2026 relative to 2025. Despite this expected decline, 2026 net farm income would remain above its 20-year average (2005–24) in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Net cash farm income is forecast at $158.5 billion for 2026, an increase of $4.6 billion (3.0 percent) relative to 2025 (not adjusted for inflation). When adjusted for inflation, 2026 net cash farm income is forecast to increase by $1.7 billion (1.1 percent) from 2025. The forecast would keep net cash farm income above its 2005–24 average. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming, as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.
Read the full 2026 forecast for farm sector income or see data only at tables on farm income indicators.
The average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to increase 18.7 percent from 2025 to $135,000 per farm in 2026 in nominal terms. Farm businesses are farms with annual gross cash farm income (GCFI)—annual income before expenses—of at least $350,000 or operations with less than $350,000 in annual GCFI but that report farming as the operator's primary occupation. All nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income rise in 2026 relative to 2025. Farm businesses located in the Prairie Gateway region are projected to see the largest increase in average net cash income. When grouped by commodity specialization, farm businesses specializing in crops are forecast to see higher average net cash farm income in 2026. Those specializing in animal/animal products are forecast to see lower average net farm income except for cattle/calf farm businesses.
Read the full 2026 forecast for farm business income or see data on Average (Farm-level) Net Cash Income.
On the farm sector balance sheet, equity is expected to increase by $112.1 billion (2.9 percent) from 2025 to $3.92 trillion in 2026 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase by $142.9 billion (3.2 percent) to $4.54 trillion in 2026 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase by $30.8 billion (5.2 percent) to $624.7 billion in 2026. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to increase slightly to 13.75 percent in 2026. Working capital is forecast to decrease 9.2 percent in 2026 compared to 2025.
Read the full 2026 forecast for farm assets, debt and wealth or see data on the farm balance sheet.
Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast to Increase in 2025 and 2026
Median total farm household income is forecast to increase to $110,014 in 2025, a 1.8 percent increase after adjusting for inflation from 2024 (4.5 percent in nominal terms). It is forecast to reach $113,031 in 2026 with an increase of 2.7 percent after inflation relative to 2025 (5.3 percent in nominal terms).
Farm households typically receive income from farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households is forecast at -$1,498 for 2025 after inflation and is forecast to increase to -$1,161 in 2026. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Median off-farm income is forecast at $92,123 for 2025, an increase of 0.8 percent after inflation from 2024 (3.4 percent in nominal terms). In 2026, median off-farm income is forecast to increase by a further 0.8 percent after inflation to $92,815 (3.3 percent in nominal terms). Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.
See the Farm Household Income and Characteristics data product tables for financial statistics of farm operator households.