Farm Sector Equity (Wealth) Forecast to Remain Relatively Stable in 2026
Farm sector equity, the difference between farm sector total assets and total debt, is forecast to rise to $3.86 trillion in 2026, a 2.7-percent increase relative to 2025 in nominal dollars. Farm sector assets are expected to increase 3.0 percent to reach $4.47 trillion in 2026. Farm sector debt is expected to increase 4.6 percent to reach $605.1 billion in 2026. After adjusting for inflation, farm sector equity and assets are forecast to remain relatively stable while debt is forecast to increase 1.5 percent in 2026.
See the full balance sheet details, including the current/noncurrent balance sheet and selected financial ratios. A summary of the balance sheet is available in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2019–2026F.
Farm real estate assets (land and its attachments) are forecast to be $3.72 trillion in 2026, a 3.4-percent increase from 2025 in nominal dollars (0.4 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars), representing 83 percent of total farm sector assets. Non-real estate assets include the value of investments and other financial assets, inventories of crops and animals, purchased inputs, and machinery/vehicles. In total, non-real estate assets are expected to remain relatively stable in 2026 in nominal dollars. In inflation-adjusted dollars, non-real estate assets are forecast to decrease by 2.0 percent in 2026.
Total farm sector debt is forecast to increase in 2026 relative to 2025 with increases forecast for both real estate and non-real estate debt. Farm real estate debt is expected to reach $399.0 billion in 2026, a 4.6-percent increase in nominal dollars (a 1.6-percent increase in inflation-adjusted dollars). Farm non-real estate debt is expected to reach $206.1 billion in 2026, a 4.4-percent increase in nominal terms (a 1.4-percent increase in inflation-adjusted dollars).
Farm Sector Solvency to Worsen and Working Capital to Improve in 2026
Farm sector solvency is forecast to worsen in 2026 relative to 2025, with debt forecast to grow at a faster rate than assets or equity. Solvency measures the ability of a farm or ranch operation to satisfy its debt obligations when due. Popular measures of solvency include the debt-to-asset ratio and debt-to-equity ratio. Lower values for these ratios are preferred. Debt-to-asset levels are forecast to increase slightly from 13.34 percent in 2025 to 13.54 percent in 2026.
Liquidity is the ability to transform or convert assets to cash quickly to satisfy short-term obligations when due without a material loss of value or price of the asset. One key measure of liquidity is working capital, which measures the amount of cash available to fund operating expenses after paying off debt to creditors due within 12 months (current debt). It is forecast to increase 3.5 percent nominally in 2026 after declining 15.0 percent in 2025. However other measures, such as the debt service ratio, show liquidity worsening in 2026.
See selected financial ratios and more about financial ratios in the Documentation for the Farm Sector Financial Ratios.
A Note on Farm Balance Sheet Estimates and Forecasts
The farm sector balance sheet provides a market value estimate and forecast of farm sector assets, debts/other liabilities, and wealth (e.g., equity or net worth) as of December 31 of the current calendar year. It differs from individual business and corporate balance sheet accounts that are based on historical cost accounting concepts. For example, historical cost-based balance sheets show capital assets such as farm machinery and equipment at their original cost, less accumulated depreciation. The objective of the farm sector balance sheet is to estimate or forecast the value of assets if sold in today's marketplace.
Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, September 3). Farm sector income & finances: Assets, debt, and wealth.