Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2022 Forecast at Record $175.5 Billion; Imports at $165.0 Billion
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U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2022 are projected at $175.5 billion, down $2.0 billion from the August forecast, but still a record if realized. This decrease is driven by reductions in oilseed and oilseed product exports that are partially offset by increases in livestock, poultry, dairy, cotton, and ethanol exports. The projection for soybean exports is down $3.9 billion to $28.4 billion due to lower prices and softening Chinese demand. Soybean meal exports are forecast down $800 million to $4.9 billion due to lower prices. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to increase by $1.9 billion to $38.7 billion, with gains across all major commodities except pork. Beef exports lead the increase with an $800-million upward revision, followed by poultry and poultry product exports, which are forecast up $700 million—both driven by higher prices. Cotton exports are forecast up $500 million to $7.3 billion based on higher unit values and volumes. Ethanol exports are forecast up $500 million to a record $2.9 billion on higher unit values. Grain and feed exports are revised down by $300 million to $41.5 billion, with corn, sorghum, and rice exports each down $100 million. The forecast for wheat exports is unchanged at $7.1 billion, as higher unit values are offset by lower volumes and greater competition. Horticultural product exports are unchanged from the August forecast at $37.7 billion.
Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $36.0 billion, a decrease of $3.0 billion from the August projection—but still a record—largely due to lower soybean unit values. China is expected to remain the largest U.S. agricultural market.
U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2022 are forecast at $165.0 billion—up $5.5 billion from the August forecast—largely driven by higher imports of horticultural and livestock products. Horticultural product imports are forecast up $2.0 billion, led by increases in distilled spirits and fresh fruits. Livestock product imports are projected to rise by $800 million on higher beef and pork imports.
The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the November 9, 2021, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release and the U.S. production forecasts thereof.