Market Outlook

See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.

Global Soybean Supply Increases in MY 2024/25

U.S. soybean supply for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to rise 8 percent on higher carryover stocks and higher soybean production. Soybean production is forecast near a record high of 4.45 billion bushels on a 3.5-percent increase in planted area and higher yield. The U.S. soybean yield is forecast at 52.0 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend while assuming normal weather during the growing season. With U.S. soybean demand growing by 6 percent, U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast to reach 445 million bushels, up 105 million bushels from the MY 2023/24 estimate. The 2024/25 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in MY 2023/24. Soybean meal and soybean oil prices are forecast to decline to $330.00 per short ton and $0.42 per pound, respectively.

Global soybean production is forecast to reach a new record of 422.3 million metric tons, up 25.3 million metric tons from MY 2023/24 on increased planted area and average yield. A record-high soybean crop is forecast for Brazil, and Argentina’s soybean crop is forecast slightly higher than MY 2023/24. Global soybean exports and crush volumes are projected to increase 7.7 million metric tons and 15.9 million metric tons, respectively, to reach 180.2 million metric tons and 345.9 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks for MY 2024/25 are projected at 128.5 million metric tons, up 16.7 million metric tons from MY 2023/24.