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The 2025/26 U.S. Soybean Crush Forecast Increases on Higher Soybean Oil Use for Biofuels
Note: Effective April 2025, Oil Crops Outlook will publish at 3:00 p.m. ET.
U.S. soybean crush for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast at a record-high 2.54 billion bushels, 50 million bushels higher than last month’s forecast. The higher soybean crush is supported by higher domestic use of soybean oil for biofuel production. On June 13, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) not only proposed to increase the Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for calendar year 2026 and 2027 but also reduced the number of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generated from imported biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks starting in 2026. As a result, the proposed rule increases the demand for domestically produced feedstocks, including soybean oil.
In contrast, the U.S. soybean export forecast is reduced this month by 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels, due to higher exports for Argentina and higher soybean supply in Brazil by the end of September. With the reduced U.S. soybean export forecast more than offsetting higher crush, U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to increase to 310 million bushels. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast to decrease by 15 cents to $10.10 per bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $290 per short ton, while the soybean oil price was raised to $0.53 per pound.
For MY 2024/25, U.S. soybean residual use is reduced on indications in the June 30 Grain Stocks report, combined with crush and export data through May. Lower residual is offset by higher soybean exports. Global soybean production in MY 2025/26 is increased, on higher soybean acreage in Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are projected higher on larger production and larger carry over from MY 2024/25. Higher ending stocks in Brazil are partially offset by lower stocks in China due to lower MY 2024/25 soybean imports.