Rice Outlook: September 2020
U.S. Rice Production Forecast for 2020/21 Raised to 225.0 Million Hundredweight
There were several revisions this month to both the U.S. 2020/21 rice balance sheet and the 2019/20 U.S. rice balance sheet. On the supply side, the 2020/21 production forecast was raised 6.9 million hundredweight (cwt) to 225.0 million, due to a larger harvested area estimate. In addition, imports were raised 0.8 million cwt to a near-record 36.8 million cwt. The 2020/21 carryin was lowered 2.1 million cwt to 28.7 million cwt. On balance, these revisions boosted total 2020/21 U.S. rice supplies 5.5 million cwt to 290.4 million cwt. On the 2020/21 use side, both total domestic and residual use and exports were increased 2.0 million cwt, to 145.5 million cwt and 99.0 million cwt, respectively. These supply and use revisions raised the 2020/21 ending stocks forecast 1.5 million cwt to 45.9 million cwt. Season-average farm price (SAFP) forecasts for 2020/21 were lowered for long-grain and southern medium- and short-grain rice but raised for California medium- and short-grain rice.
For 2019/20, U.S. imports were raised 0.6 million cwt to a record 37.3 million cwt. On the use side, exports were increased 1.7 million cwt to 94.2 million cwt and total domestic and residual use increased 1.0 million cwt to 144.0 million cwt. Both trade changes were based on yearend U.S. Census data. Ending stocks were lowered 2.1 million cwt to 28.7 million cwt based on data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) August 21 Rice Stocks. The 2019/20 SAFP for California medium- and short-grain rice was raised, while the southern medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered, largely based on August-July NASS prices and marketings.
In the global rice market, the 2020/21 production forecast was lowered 0.5 million tons to 499.6 million tons (milled basis), still the highest on record. Production forecasts were lowered this month for Bangladesh, Burma, Iraq, and Thailand, but raised for Brazil, India, and the United States. Global rice consumption and residual is forecast at a record 496.4 million tons, with global ending stocks expected to increase almost 2 percent to a record 184.8 million tons in 2020/21. Global rice trade in 2021 is projected at 44.4 million tons, up more than 3 percent from a year earlier, with both Thailand and India projected to increase exports 1.0 million tons. The Philippines and Nigeria are projected to increase imports the most in 2021. Over the past month, quotes for Thailand’s trading prices for nonaromatic rice have increased on tight supplies, Vietnam’s price quotes have dropped slightly on weak demand, and prices for U.S. milled rice for both long-grain and medium-grain were unchanged from a month earlier.
See the Rice Outlook.