Market Outlook

See the latest Rice Outlook report.

U.S. Export Forecast Lowered 4.0 Million Hundredweight

There were several revisions this month to the 2022/23 U.S. rice balance sheet. On the supply side, production was lowered 1.1 million hundredweight (cwt) to 164.3 million and imports were raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 45.0 million. On the use side, exports were lowered 4.0 million cwt to 71.0 million, while the domestic and residual use forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 142.0 million. These supply and use revisions resulted in a 2.9-million cwt increase in the 2022/23 ending stocks forecast to 36.1 million cwt. Season-average farm price (SAFP) forecasts for 2022/23 were raised for medium- and short-grain rice in both the South and in California, with the U.S. all-rice SAFP now forecast at a record $19.90 per cwt. In October, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported revised monthly cash prices and marketings for 2021/22, resulting in revised SAFPs for all-rice and for both classes of rice.

In the 2022/23 global rice market, production was lowered 1.35 million tons to 503.7 million, 2 percent below a year earlier. Production forecasts were lowered for Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The 2022/23 global consumption and residual use forecast was lowered 0.3 million tons this month to 517.8 million, down 2.1 million tons from the year-earlier record. Global ending stocks for 2022/23 were lowered 2.2 million tons to 169.0 million tons, 8 percent below a year earlier. Global rice trade in calendar year 2023 was lowered 0.4 million tons to 53.0 million tons, down almost 4 percent from the year-earlier record, with export forecasts reduced for Cambodia, Pakistan, and the United States.