Market Outlook

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Lower Prices and Larger Supplies Raise 2025 Global Rice Trade Forecast 4 Percent to 56.3 Million Tons

The calendar year 2025 global rice export forecast is raised 2.3 million tons to 56.3 million, fractionally higher than the year earlier revised forecast and the second highest on record. On September 28, the Government of India suspended its more than 14-month ban on exports of non-basmati milled rice, 1 day after reducing its tariff on parboiled and brown rice exports to 10 percent from 20 percent. India’s 2025 export forecast is raised 3.0 million tons to 21.0 million, while forecasts for Brazil, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are lowered. Import forecasts for 2025 are raised for several countries due to lower expected prices and larger exportable supplies, with China, Nepal, and the Philippines showing the largest increases. The 2024 global export forecast is raised 1.5 percent to almost 56.3 million tons, more than 4 percent above a year earlier, with export forecasts raised for Burma, India, and Thailand, but lowered for Pakistan and Uruguay.

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Rice Yearbook Agricultural Baseline Database Commodity Costs and Returns

Crops Corn and Other Feed Grains Wheat Farm & Commodity Policy Agricultural Baseline