Market Outlook

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U.S. 2024/25 Production Forecast Raised 1.5 Million
Hundredweight to 221.7 Million

There are several revisions this month to the U.S. 2024/25 rice balance sheet. On the supply side, the production forecast is raised 1.5 million hundredweight (cwt) to 221.7 million, primarily a result of a slightly higher harvested area estimate. The 16,000-acre increase in the harvested area estimate to 2.9 million acres is based on a survey of growers conducted by the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service in early June. In addition, the 2024/25 import forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 45.5 million. On the 2024/25 use side, exports are increased 1.0 million cwt to 101.0 million, with long-grain accounting for all of the upward revision. By type, rough-rice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 45.0 million, while milled-rice rice exports remain forecast at 56.0 million cwt. On balance, these supply and use revisions result in a 1.5-million-cwt increase in the 2024/25 ending stocks forecast to 46.0 million cwt. Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for 2024/25 are unchanged for all reported categories, with the all-rice SAFP forecast at $15.60 per cwt.

In the 2024/25 global rice market, production is raised 547,000 tons to a record 528.2 million, with Pakistan accounting for most of the upward revision. Global domestic and residual use in 2024/25 is projected at a record 527.3 million tons, up 834,000 tons from the previous forecast, with Malaysia, Pakistan, and the Philippines accounting for most of the increase. Global ending stocks in 2024/25 are projected at 178.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous forecast, with Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Malaysia, Pakistan, and the United States accounting for most of the upward revision.