Market Outlook

Rice Outlook: July 2021

Summary

U.S. 2021/22 Rice Crop Projection Lowered to 199.3 Million Hundredweight

There were several revisions this month to both the 2020/21 and 2021/22 U.S. rice balance sheets. For 2021/22, on the supply-side, the all-rice carryin was raised 5.0 million cwt to 45.9 million due to revisions to 2020/21 exports and for domestic and residual use. Production was lowered 2 percent to 199.3 million cwt based on a smaller harvested area reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with California accounting for most of the area decline. Imports were increased 0.5 million cwt—all medium- and short-grain—to a record 39.0 million based on an expected smaller medium- and short-grain crop. On the 2021/22 use-side, exports of all-rice were raised 2.0 million cwt to 90.0 million, with long-grain rough-rice accounting for all of the upward revision. Domestic and residual use was lowered 3.0 million cwt to 153.0 million, still the highest on record. These revisions boosted 2021/22 ending stocks 2.2 million cwt to 41.3 million, still 10 percent below a year earlier.

For 2020/21, the all-rice U.S. export forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 93.0 million, with long-grain rough-rice accounting for all of the upward revision. In addition, domestic and residual use for 2020/21 was lowered 6.0 million cwt to 152.0 million, based on the use implied by the June 1 rice stocks reported by NASS. These revisions raised 2020/21 ending stocks 5.0 million cwt to 45.9 million cwt. The 2020/21 long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) was lowered slightly, while both the 2021/22 California and Southern medium- and short-grain SAFPs were raised largely in response to a reduced crop forecast.

In the global market, rice production in 2021/22 is forecast at a record 506.0 million tons (milled basis), down almost 0.6 million tons from the previous forecast, with production forecasts lowered for Egypt, EU, and the United States. Global rice consumption and residual use in 2021/22 is projected at a record 514.0 million tons, down almost 0.6 million tons from the previous forecast. In 2021/22, global ending stocks are forecast at 167.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous forecast and down 7.9 million tons from a year earlier. India accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global ending stocks. Global rice trade in calendar year 2022 is projected at 47.0 million tons (milled basis), up barely 0.1 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.9 million tons below the year-earlier revised forecast; weaker imports by Bangladesh of Indian rice are a major factor behind projected smaller global trade in 2022. Export forecasts for 2022 were raised this month for Australia and Brazil, while 2022 import forecasts were raised for China and Egypt. In addition, India’s calendar year 2021 exports were raised 1.0 million tons to a record 18.0 million tons.

Trading prices for most grades of Thailand’s regularly milled white rice (excluding aromatic, parboiled, or any other specialty rice) are down 8-9 percent from a month earlier. Vietnam’s prices for both its old crop and new crop declined as well. Despite these declines, India’s prices remain the most competitive in Asia. U.S. long-grain milled prices are unchanged since early June, while California medium- and short-grain milled rice prices have continued to rise.

 

See the Rice Outlook.