Rice Outlook, May 2020 (summary)
U.S. 2020/21 Rice Production Projected at
216.2 Million Hundredweight
The 2020/21 U.S. rice crop is forecast at 216.2 million cwt (hundredweight), up 17 percent from a year earlier, mostly due to a strong recovery in area. Imports are projected at another record, and total supplies are projected to be up 7 percent from 2019/20. Domestic and residual use is projected to be stronger in 2020/21, as are exports, boosting total use 3 percent. Ending stocks are projected to increase 37 percent to 41.8 million cwt, yielding a more normal 17.6-percent stocks-to-use ratio. The long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to decline in 2020/21, while medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected unchanged from 2019/20. Global production and consumption are projected to be record high, with ending stocks rising to a 14th consecutive high. Global trade is projected to increase 5 percent in 2021, as export restrictions and limitations are expected to be removed. India is projected to be the largest exporter and the Philippines the largest importer.