Rice Outlook, August 2019 (summary)
U.S. 2019/20 Rice Production Forecast Lowered 2 Percent to 205.4 Million Cwt
There were several revisions this month to the 2019/20 U.S. rice balance sheet. On the supply side, the U.S. production forecast was lowered 3.3 million cwt to 205.4 million cwt based on a lower all rice yield reported by NASS. In addition, the 2019/20 carryin was lowered 1.0 million cwt to 50.6 million cwt due to stronger exports in 2018/19. On the use side, the 2019/20 total domestic and residual use forecast was lowered 1.0 million cwt to 137.0 million cwt. Exports in 2019/20 remain forecast at 101.0 million cwt. These supply and use revisions resulted in a 3.3-million cwt reduction in the 2019/20 ending stocks forecast to 47.2 million cwt. The 2019/20 season-average farm price forecast was raised for both long-grain rice and southern medium- and short-grain rice. The only revision to the 2018/19 U.S. rice balance sheet was a 1.0-million cwt increase in the medium- and short-grain export forecast to 27.0 million cwt which lowered the all rice endings forecast to 50.6 million cwt. The 2018/19 long-grain season-average farm price was raised 10 cents to $12.80 per cwt.
In the 2019/20 global rice market, the world production forecast was raised fractionally to 497.9 million tons, still 0.8 million tons below the 2018/19 record. Production forecasts for 2019/20 were raised this month for Iraq and Vietnam, but lowered for Thailand and the United States. China’s 2019/20 consumption and residual use forecast was lowered 1.6 million tons to 143.0 million tons and its endings stocks raised 2.0 million tons to a record 118.0 million tons. Global ending stocks are projected at a record 174.7 million tons, with China accounting for about 68 percent of the total. The calendar year 2020 global trade forecast was lowered 0.3 million tons to 46.9 million tons, with Thailand accounting for most of the reduced export forecast, and China and Iraq accounting for most of the reduced 2020 import forecast. Thailand’s export prices rose over the past month, while prices for Vietnam’s summer-autumn crop that is currently being harvested are well below prices for the previously harvested winter-spring crop.