Market Outlook

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U.S. 2022/23 Rice Production Projected at 182.7 Million Cwt

The first forecasts for the 2022/23 market year and for calendar year 2023 are presented this month. For the United States, production in 2022/23 is projected at 182.7 million hundredweight (cwt), down 5 percent from a year earlier. Imports are projected at a record 38.0 million cwt, up 10 percent. On the use side, exports are projected to decline almost 4 percent to 82.0 million cwt and combined domestic and residual use is projected to drop 3 percent. These supply and use projections result in an ending stocks’ forecast of 33.2 million cwt, down 11.5 percent from 2021/22. The 2021/22 U.S. rice balance sheet was revised this month, with imports raised 4.0 million cwt to 34.5 million cwt and total use raised 1.0 million cwt to 232.5 million cwt, resulting in a 3.0-million cwt increase in ending stocks to 37.5 million cwt. U.S. season-average farm prices (SAFP) for 2022/23 are projected higher than a year earlier for both classes of rice, with the long-grain and California medium- and short-grain SAFP projected record high.

In the global market, rice production in 2022/23 is forecast at a record 514.6 million tons (milled basis), up 1.8 million tons from a year earlier, with India achieving the largest increase. Global consumption and residual use in 2022/23 is projected at a record 518.4 million tons, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier, with China and India accounting for the bulk of the increase. Global ending stocks in 2022/23 are projected at 186.3 million tons, down 2 percent from the year- earlier revised record, with China accounting for the largest share of the decline. Global rice trade in calendar year 2023, at a record 54.3 million tons (milled basis), is up 3 percent from a year earlier, with India, Thailand, and Pakistan expected to increase shipments. On the 2023 global import side, China accounts for the largest expected increase, taking a record 6.0 million tons.