See the latest Rice Outlook report.
U.S. 2025/26 all-rice export forecast reduced anew on persistent weak pace for rough rice
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use, reduced exports, and steady ending stocks. Offsetting changes are applied to imports (down 2.0 million hundredweight (cwt) to 45.7 million) and exports (reduced 2.0 million cwt to 85.0 million), leaving all rice ending stocks unchanged at 50.3 million cwt. Both adjustments are for long-grain with no changes to medium- and short-grain trade. The long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $10.50 per cwt. On the other hand, the Other States medium- and short-grain SAFP is raised $0.40 per cwt to $14.20 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The 2025/26 global outlook this month is for fractionally lower supplies, smaller consumption, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. World 2025/26 consumption is lowered 0.8 million tons to 541.0 million, mostly on smaller consumption estimates for several African countries. Global 2025/26 trade is decreased 1.3 million tons to 62.0 million, largely on a slower-than-expected pace of exports from India. Projected world ending stocks are raised 0.7 million tons to 191.5 million, with higher stocks for India not completely offset by reductions for several countries.
The latest ERS Rice Outlook report was published in February 2026. In March 2026, ERS will publish its Rice Yearbook.