Market Outlook

See the latest Cotton & Wool Outlook report.

World 2022/23 Cotton Production To Exceed Mill Use; Stocks To Rise

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2022/23 (August−July) indicate a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton production (+0.6 percent) and a decrease in mill use (-2.1 percent). World production is projected at 116.4 million bales in 2022/23, with the top producers China, India, the United States, and Brazil accounting for just over 70 percent of the total. Global cotton mill use is projected at 114.9 million bales in 2022/23, with Pakistan and India leading the decrease while an increase for China limits the global decline.

World cotton ending stocks are projected above 2021/22 as mill use is forecast below production for the first time since 2019/20. Ending stocks are projected at 87.3 million bales this season, nearly 2 percent above 2021/22 and the highest in 3 years. Global trade, meanwhile, is estimated to increase 1 percent from 2021/22 to 43.2 million bales. With 2022/23 cotton mill demand declining and the global stocks-to-use ratio projected higher than the previous 2 seasons, cotton prices are expected to decline from the elevated 2021/22 levels.