Market Outlook

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Global 2022/23 Cotton Stocks To Rise as Production Exceeds Mill Use

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that world cotton ending stocks in 2022/23 (August–July) are projected at 89.9 million bales—nearly 5.5 percent above 2021/22. With global production above mill use, world stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are forecast to reach their highest in 3 years, weakening global cotton prices from 2021/22’s 11-year high.

 

World cotton production is projected at 115.4 million bales in 2022/23, marginally below the 2021/22 crop, as a reduction in harvested area this season more than offsets a higher global yield of 787 kg per hectare (702 pounds per acre). Meanwhile, a slowdown in the global economy has reduced cotton mill use prospects this season. World cotton mill use is forecast at 110.9 million bales in 2022/23, nearly 6.7 million bales below the year before. Consequently, reduced global cotton trade is also forecast. Global exports are projected at nearly 41.7 million bales in 2022/23—down nearly 3 percent—with U.S. cotton exports forecast to account for 29 percent of the total. Meanwhile, Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam are expected to remain the leading cotton importers in 2022/23.

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