Market Outlook

See the latest Cotton & Wool Outlook report.

Global 2023/24 Cotton Ending Stocks to Decline as Mill Use Exceeds Production

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates forecast that world cotton ending stocks in 2023/24 (August–July) will total 81.5 million bales, a 1.9-percent decrease from 2022/23, as mill use is projected to surpass production. The United States, Brazil, and China lead the stock decline this season, offset slightly by Pakistan and India.

Global 2023/24 cotton mill use (115.3 million bales) is 4.4 million bales (3.9 percent) higher than the previous year, with China, India, and Pakistan the largest mill users of cotton. World cotton production is forecast at 113.5 million bales in 2023/24, 2.7 percent below the previous year as a lower global yield more than offsets a slightly higher harvested area estimate. This year’s production decline is largely attributable to China, the United States, India, and Australia with offsets from Brazil and Pakistan. World trade is projected 17 percent higher in 2023/24, supporting the expected increase in global cotton mill use. The 2023/24 season-average price for U.S. upland cotton is forecast at 77 cents per pound, compared with last season’s 84.8 cents per pound.

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