See the latest Cotton & Wool Outlook report.
Global 2025/26 Cotton Stocks Reduced as Projected Production Declines
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2025/26 (August–July) indicate that world cotton ending stocks are expected to decrease 1.1 million bales (1.5 percent) from the previous year to 73.9 million bales. The stock decline results from a global production forecast that is below the mill use projection. With world cotton stocks expected to decline, global cotton prices are projected to rise slightly in 2025/26.
Global cotton production is estimated to decrease 2.5 million bales (2 percent) from the previous year to 116.6 million bales but remains the second highest since 2019/20. Australia, the United States, China, and India are major contributors to the global production decline in 2025/26. World cotton mill use is projected to remain unchanged at 118.0 million bales, with mill use for each of the major cotton-spinning countries expected to remain near their 2024/25 level. Global cotton trade expectations (43.6 million bales) increase slightly from 2024/25 as Brazil and the United States continue as the primary exporters in 2025/26 while Bangladesh and Vietnam are forecast as the leading importers.