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World 2025/26 Cotton Production Projected To Decline Year Over Year
Note: Effective April 2025, Cotton and Wool Outlook will publish at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The initial U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2025/26 (August–July) indicate a decrease in global production compared with 2024/25. World cotton production is projected at 117.8 million bales in 2025/26, nearly 3 percent (3.3 million bales) below 2024/25 but among the largest crops of the last several years. Projections for the major producing countries are mixed, however, with China, Australia, and India experiencing declines that are partially offset by gains in Brazil, Pakistan, and the United States. U.S. cotton production is expected to rise marginally to 14.5 million bales in 2025/26.
Global cotton mill use is forecast to increase 1 percent (1.4 million bales) in 2025/26 to 118.1 million bales. Mill use is projected to rise in most major cotton spinning countries in 2025/26 except for China and Pakistan. China and India account for more than half of the world mill use total once again in 2025/26. Global cotton trade is projected to increase along with mill use, rising to its highest in 5 years. World ending stocks are forecast at 78.4 million bales in 2025/26, unchanged from 2024/25 and one of the largest levels of the last decade.