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Global 2025/26 Cotton Production and Mill Use Forecast at Similar Levels
Note: Effective April 2025, Cotton and Wool Outlook will publish at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2025/26 (August–July) indicate that world cotton production will decrease 1.5 million bales (1 percent) to 118.4 million bales but remains the second highest total since 2017/18. Australia and China are projected to lead the decrease in global production in 2025/26. World ending stocks are forecast to remain relatively stable in 2025/26 as production and mill use are nearly offsetting.
Global cotton mill use is projected to increase slightly to 118.1 million bales in 2025/26, the highest since 2020/21. Except for China, mill use in 2025/26 is expected to increase for each of the top five cotton-spinning countries. World cotton trade expectations (44.7 million bales) show a rebound from 2024/25 and are the second highest since 2012/13. The projected season-average U.S. upland cotton farm price for 2025/26 is 62 cents per pound, similar to the estimated level for 2024/25.