Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, May 2018 (summary)

2019 Forecasts: Production of Beef, Pork, Broilers, Turkey, Eggs, and Milk Expected To Increase

USDA production forecasts for 2019 indicate growth expectations for beef (+1.8 percent), pork (+3.1 percent), broilers (+2.3 percent), turkey (+0.9 percent), eggs (+2.1 percent), and milk (+1.3 percent). Conversely, veal production is expected to decrease by 2.1 percent, while no growth is projected for lamb. Compared to average annual growth rates for 2014-2018, 2019 forecasts for beef and turkey are projected to see higher growth than the 5-year averages of 1.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Pork, broilers, and eggs are expected to be about on pace with 5-year average growth rates of 3 percent, 2.3 percent, and 1.9 percent, respectively. The forecast growth rate for milk production is down from the 5-year average of 1.7 percent. Over the 2014-2018 period, veal production contracted notably, averagingannual decreases of 8.1 percent, but recent years and the 2019 forecast indicate a slowed rate ofcontraction. Similarly, in 2019, lamb, which had average annual declines of 1.3 percent over the past 5years, is expected to maintain production levels consistent with 2018.

Dairy: In March, commercial exports on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis reached a record high of 4.255 billion pounds, while exports on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis reached 996 million pounds, the highest level since July 2014. Due to recent increases in dairy product prices, lower-than-expected first-quarter ending stocks, lower expected annual milk production, and higher expected exports, the all-milk price forecast for 2018 is $16.20-$16.70 per hundredweight (cwt), an increase from last month’s forecast of $15.60-$16.10. For 2019, the milk production forecast is 221.5 billion pounds, a modest 1.3-percent increase over 2018. The all-milk price forecast for 2019 is $16.25-17.25 per cwt.

 

See the May LDP Outlook report and previous reports.