Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, June 2020 (summary)

Meat Production Increases Expected in 2021

2021 production for beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys is expected to be higher than 2019 and 2020 levels. See the figure below.

The largest year-over-year percent changes are in beef production. The 2020 beef production forecast is 1.8 percent below production in 2019. In 2021 production is expected to be 3.4 percent higher than in 2020. The 2020 pork production forecast is 0.5 percent below production in 2019. Next year, pork production is expected to be 1.7 percent higher than forecast production in 2020. Broiler production in 2020 is forecast 0.3 percent below production last year. For 2021 broilers, production is expected to be 2.1 percent higher than the 2020 forecast. Turkey production is expected to be 0.8 percent less in 2020 than a year earlier, and in 2021, 1.3 percent above forecast production for 2020.

Dairy: Wholesale prices for butter and cheese have been extremely volatile in recent weeks, plunging to very low levels in April and early May before rising to relatively high levels more recently. Supply and demand factors account for the volatility in prices. After the downturn in prices and excess milk supply in April and early May, dairy cooperatives and other handlers took steps to limit supply from dairy farmers. Food service outlets cut back drastically on their orders in April due to COVID-19. As food service started increasing in some States, pipeline stocks for food service establishments needed to be replenished to prepare for the increase in demand. The U.S. Government also began buying large quantities of food to distribute to food banks, community and faith-based organizations, and other nonprofit organizations. Aggregate dairy exports have remained substantially above previous-year levels during the pandemic.

With the recent increase in prices and higher expected demand, the all-milk price forecast for 2020 has been raised to $16.65 per cwt, an increase from the May forecast of $14.55 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast for 2021 is $16.20 per cwt, an increase from the May forecast of $15.00 per cwt.

See LDP Outlook

Last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2020

For more information, contact: Jerry Cessna