Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, January 2020 (summary)

2019 Year-To-Date Imports Higher for Cattle, Lower for Hogs

The figure below shows year-to-date (January-November) cattle and hog imports for 2018 and 2019. The imports are divided into two classes, animals for slaughter and “all others.” Most of the “other animals” class is comprised of feeder calves for cattle and finishing animals (segregated early-weaned pigs and feeder pigs) for hogs. Virtually all cattle imports come from Mexico and Canada. U.S. hog imports are sourced almost exclusively from Canada. Mexico is the largest source of live cattle imports to the United States. This year, about 63 percent of cattle imports are of Mexican origin, with about 99.8 percent of Mexican imports falling into the all-other category. Virtually all of these cattle are feeder calves. About 37 percent of total cattle imports in 2019 are of Canadian origin, 71 percent of which are comprised of slaughter cattle. Year-to-date cattle imports are about 7 percent higher than a year ago. Most of the increase is attributable to an 84,000-head increase in slaughter animals, mostly of Canadian origin. Feeder cattle imports have increased about 41,000 head, or 3.1 percent, through November. Canada is the source of over 99.9 percent—all but a handful—of U.S. hog imports. 2019 year-to-date total hog imports are about 4.7 million head, almost 4 percent lower than in 2018. Slaughter hogs have increased almost 4 percent (about 25,000 head), while imports of finishing animals have declined by more than 205,000 head, to about 5 percent lower than the same period in 2018.

Dairy: Based upon recent weak growth in milk production per cow, the 2020 annual forecast for milk production has been lowered 0.4 billion pounds to 222.0 billion pounds. Export forecasts for 2020 have been raised due to higher expected exports of NDM and cheese. Price forecasts for butter, dry whey, and Cheddar cheese have been lowered for 2020, but the price forecast for NDM has been raised. The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is $19.25 per hundredweight, $0.15 lower than last month’s forecast.

See the January LDP Outlook report and previous reports.

Last updated: Wednesday, January 22, 2020

For more information contact: Jerry Cessna