Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, February 2018 (summary)

Asia and NAFTA Countries Account for the Majority of 2017 U.S Red Meat, Poultry, Egg, and Dairy Exports

Latest available trade data totals for 2017 show that exported U.S. red meat, poultry, egg, and dairy products went mostly to Asia and NAFTA countries. Additional export shares were accounted for by Central/South America and the Caribbean (CSA&C) and the EU, with the balance attributed to the aggregate “Rest of World” (ROW). For the U.S. beef sector, exported volumes went to Asia (66 percent), Mexico (15 percent), Canada (11 percent), and CSA&C (5 percent), with 2 percent each to the EU and ROW. For pork exports, Asia accounted for 43 percent, Mexico 32 percent, Canada 9 percent, CSA&C for 11 percent, and ROW for 4 percent. The largest destination for U.S-exported lamb and mutton was CSA&C (37 percent), followed closely by Mexico (34 percent) and then by Canada (10 percent), Asia (8 percent), ROW (7 percent), and the EU (4 percent). The largest share of broiler exports—33 percent—went to ROW, 79 percent of them comprising exports to Africa and Middle Eastern countries. CSA&C accounted for 25 percent of broiler exports, Mexico for 20 percent, Asia for 18 percent, and Canada for 5 percent. The majority of turkey exports, 62 percent, went to Mexico. CSA&C countries took 17 percent, Asia accounted for 11 percent, Canada took 2 percent, and 8 percent went to ROW. The largest destination for U.S. egg exports was Asia (33 percent), followed by Mexico (23 percent), Canada (19 percent), CSA&C (12 percent), ROW (7 percent) and the EU with 6 percent. Fifty percent of U.S. dairy exports went to Asia and 25 percent to Mexico. The ROW category accounted for 12 percent, CSA&C for 8 percent, Canada for 4 percent, and the E.U for 1 percent.

Dairy: Due to recent price movements and relatively weak expected domestic demand, the 2018 all-milk price forecast has been lowered to $15.70-$16.40 per cwt, a reduction from $15.80-$16.60 forecast last month. Due to lower-than-expected milk per cow in the fourth quarter of 2017, lower projected milk prices, and higher expected feed prices, the 2018 milk production forecast has been lowered to 218.7 billion pounds, 0.1 billion pounds less than last month’s forecast. The U.S. is expected to be competitive in international markets, especially on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis. As a result, the 2018 forecast for exports on a skim-solids basis has been raised to 42.5 billion pounds, 0.5 billion more than last month’s forecast. Domestic use forecasts have been lowered on both milk-fat and skim-solids milk-equivalent bases by 0.2 billion and 0.8 billion pounds, respectively.

See the February LDP Outlook report and previous reports.