Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, November 2019 (summary)
Total Exports of Red Meat and Poultry on Course To Increase in 2019 and 2020
U.S. trade data through September indicate that in the first three quarters of 2019 total exports of red meat and poultry increased 1.1 percent. However, driven by a large increase in expected fourth-quarter shipments, exports for the year are forecast to increase more than 3 percent compared with 2018, followed by an increase in 2020 of about 7 percent. While beef exports are likely to end 2019 with an almost 2-percent decline, shipments are expected to rebound in 2020 by about 7 percent, as drought in
competitor Australia reduces its exportable supply at the same time as beef demand continues to expand in Asia. Large year-over-year pork exports—about 11 percent in 2019 and more than 12 percent in 2020—are forecast, due largely to likely increased import demand from African Swine Disease (ASF)-stricken countries in Asia. For broilers, global supplies of animal proteins, reduced by ASF in both 2019 and 2020, are increasing prices of broiler meat and slowing U.S. exports to price sensitive countries. Broiler exports are forecast to decline slightly this year (-0.4 percent), but to expand by 3 percent in 2020. Turkey exports are anticipated to rebound to more than 4 percent this year and to increase at about the same rate next year.
Dairy: Milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 have been raised to 218.6 billion pounds (+0.4 billion) and 222.4 billion pounds (+0.8 billion), respectively, as higher average yield per cow is expected to more than offset slower growth in the dairy herd. For 2019 and 2020, wholesale price forecasts for cheese and nonfat dry milk have been raised, but price forecasts for butter and dry whey have been lowered. The all-milk price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2019 has been raised to $20.50 per hundredweight (cwt) (+$0.90), and the forecast for the annual price has been raised to $18.60 per cwt (+$0.20). For 2020, the all-milk price forecast is unchanged at $18.85 per cwt, as a higher expected Class III milk price is largely offset by a lower expected Class IV milk price.