Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, September 2017

Summary

January-July Red Meat and Dairy Imports Mostly Year-Over-Year Lower 

 U.S imports of red meats and dairy were mostly lower for the January-July period of 2017, compared with the same period in 2016. January-July beef imports were 4.3 percent below a year earlier, due largely to increased domestic production and lower production in Oceania. Pork imports were only slightly below (-0.6 percent) the January-July period last year. For both pork and beef, Canada has been the primary supplier of imported products this year. Lamb/mutton was the only component of the red meat aggregate for which imports have been higher so far this year. The United States imported 14 percent more lamb in the first 7 months of the year, compared with January-July 2016, due to lower domestic production. Most imported lamb products are sourced from Australia. Dairy imports, on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis, were almost 18 percent below a year earlier. The decline is mainly attributable to lower cheese imports. The European Union was the primary source of January-July dairy imports.

Dairy: With lower expectations for exports and relatively high stock levels of dairy products, all-milk price forecasts have been lowered. For 2017, the all-milk price forecast is $17.70-$17.90 per cwt, a decrease from last month’s forecast of $17.80-18.00. The 2018 all-milk price forecast is $17.55-$18.55 per cwt, a decrease from last month’s forecast of $18.00-$19.00.

 

The September LDP Outlook report and previous reports are available here

 https://usda-admin.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1350