Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, April 2019 (summary)

2018 Trade Data Shows That Mexico Has the Greatest Share of U.S. Animal Protein Exports

U.S. trade data shows Mexico as the largest single-country buyer of U.S. red meat and poultry in 2018, accounting for about 24 percent of beef, pork, lamb, mutton, broilers, and turkey exported last year. Mexico’s purchases of U.S. animal proteins were spread across red meats and poultry; the country was the largest buyer of U.S. pork, lamb, mutton, broilers, and turkey and the third-largest buyer of beef. Japan accounted for a 13-percent share of red meats and poultry last year. Japan’s export share is weighted heavily towards purchases of U.S. pork and beef—it was the second-largest buyer of pork and the largest buyer of beef. South Korea’s 8-percent share of red meat and poultry exports was also weighted toward red meats; it was the third-largest buyer of pork and the second-largest buyer of beef. Canada’s 7-percent share is accounted for mainly by its purchases of U.S. pork and beef, although it was also the fifth-largest buyer of broiler meat and turkey last year. China\Hong Kong accounted for 7 percent of red meat and poultry exports. It was the fourth-largest buyer of U.S. beef and the fifth-largest pork buyer, but also the second-largest buyer of turkey. A large share of U.S. red meat and poultry exports was distributed in small volumes, across a number of countries that together account for about 41 percent of exports.

Dairy: The 2019 forecast for the all-milk price has been raised to $17.25-$17.75 per cwt, an increase from $17.00-$17.60 forecast last month. Based on recent data and revisions, the 2019 milk production forecast has been lowered to 219.5 billion pounds, 0.2 billion less than last month’s forecast. With lower expected exports of whey products, lactose, butterfat products, and nonfat dry milk, export forecasts have been lowered by 0.3 billion pounds on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis and by 1.4 billion pounds on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis.

See the April LDP Outlook report and previous reports.