Market Outlook


Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: September 2020



January-July 2020 Most Meat and Dairy Imports Up, Pork Imports Lower, Compared to Same Period Last Year

U.S. imports of meat and dairy in the January-July period were mixed compared to the same period last year. Imports of beef, lamb and mutton, and dairy increased, while pork imports declined. Beef imports increased 8.5 percent from January through July. Of major foreign beef suppliers to the United States, imports from Australia and Canada declined, while those from New Zealand, Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Nicaragua increased. Imports of pork declined almost 12 percent, mostly on lower imports from Poland. Lower lamb imports from both Australia and New Zealand were more than offset by higher imports of mutton from these two countries. Combined lamb and mutton imports increased 6.7 percent. The 2.4-percent increase in dairy imports was mostly due to higher imports of butterfat products—butter, anhydrous milkfat, and high-fat dairy spreads.

Dairy: Milk production forecasts for both 2020 and 2021 are raised from last month to 222.0 billion pounds and 225.4 billion pounds, respectively, on stronger growth in milk per cow. Prices for butter, cheese, and whey are reduced from last month as supplies remain large. However, lower prices for butter and cheese help the competitiveness of U.S. products internationally, and the forecasts for fat-basis imports are reduced and exports are increased. Strong international demand for skim milk powders underpin high forecasts for skim-solids-basis exports for both 2020 and 2021. Lower product prices result in lower Class III and Class IV price forecasts for both years. The all-milk price forecast is lowered to $17.75 per cwt in 2020 and $17.00 per cwt in 2021.

See the LDP Outlook.

Last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2020

For more information, contact: Jerry Cessna