Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, May 2019 (summary)

2020 Production of Most Animal Proteins Forecast To Increase

Production for most animal proteins is expected to increase in 2020, compared to production levels of 2019. Among the factors driving higher production are producer responses to forecasts of continued-positive U.S. economic conditions, including improved producer returns. Beef production is expected to increase next year by almost 1 percent. The anticipated U.S. pork production increase of about 3.5 percent in 2020 is a response to higher international pork prices due to pork deficits in China, resulting from African Swine Fever. Broiler production is expected to increase by 1.3 percent next year and other chicken by 1.4 percent. Turkey production is expected to increase year over year—by 1.0 percent—for the first time in 3 years. Anticipated 2020 growth in the U.S egg industry is about 0.8 percent, and milk production growth is forecast at 1.6 percent. A decline—0.5 percent—is projected for lamb and mutton production next year.

Dairy: March milk production was 0.4 percent below March 2018. The milk production forecast for 2019 has been lowered to 218.7 billion pounds, 0.8 billion less than last month’s forecast and only 0.5 percent above 2018. Due to recent increases in most dairy product prices, lower expected milk production, and higher expected exports, the 2019 all-milk price forecast has been raised to $18.05 per cwt. The milk production forecast for 2020 is 222.7 billion pounds, an increase of 1.6 percent from 2019, adjusted for leap year. With tightening supplies expected among global competitors, U.S. exports of dairy products are expected to increase in 2020. The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is $18.80 per cwt. If realized, this would be the highest all-milk price since 2014.

See the May LDP Outlook report and previous reports.