Technical Bulletin No. (TB-1883) 17 pp

March 2000

Forecasting Consumer Price Indexes for Food: A Demand Model Approach

Forecasting food prices is an important component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's short-term outlook and long-term baseline forecasting activities. A food price-forecasting model is developed by applying an inverse demand system, in which prices are functions of quantities of food use and income. Therefore, these quantity and income variables can be used as explanatory variables for food price changes. The empirical model provides an effective instrument for forecasting consumer price indexes of 16 food categories. ERS AutoFAX summary document # 01733. Contact:

Keywords: Food price forecasts, inverse demand system, autoregressive model

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Last updated: Wednesday, March 01, 2000

For more information contact: Kuo Huang