Economic Research Report No. (ERR-71) 29 pp

February 2009

Declining Orange Consumption in Japan: Generational Changes or Something Else?

Japan is a leading market for U.S. oranges. Since 1995, orange consumption in Japan has declined. This report summarizes an analysis of household survey data to assess various factors that may be related to the decline. Consumption of oranges in Japan differs markedly across generations, with younger generations (cohorts) eating fewer oranges than older generations. However, within generations, as individuals in Japan grow older, they eat more oranges. On balance, the effects on consumption associated with aging and birth cohort membership are mostly offsetting. Orange prices affect consumption levels, but household income does not. Even after the analysis accounts for price and demographic variables, a strong downward trend is evident in orange consumption in Japan. Results suggest that orange consumption could decline even more in the future.

Keywords: Japan, oranges, consumption, age/period/cohort analysis

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