The Consequences of Welfare Reform and Economic Change for the Food Stamp Program--Illustrations from Microsimulation: Final Report

by Jonathan Jacobson, Nuria Rodriguez-Planas, Loren Puffer, Emily Pas, Laura Taylor-Kale, and Kenneth Hanson

This report summarizes the results of a longitudinal microsimulation model known as MATH STEWARD that was used to explore how state welfare reform and economic changes between 1992 and 1998 might have affected the Food Stamp Program and how an economic recession might affect food stamp outcomes. Slightly over half of the reductions in FSP caseloads and costs between December 1992 and December 1998 were simulated. About one-third of the simulated reductions in caseloads and costs could be attributed to changes in state welfare and child care policies; about two-thirds could be attributed to changes in state unemployment rates. In a future recession similar to the 1990-92 recession, food stamp caseloads could increase about 11 percent and food stamp costs could increase about 13 percent.

Keywords: e-fanrr, Food Stamp Program, Microsimulation, welfare reform, Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Program

In this publication...

• Entire Report
• Abstract
• Introduction
• I. Background
• II. Introduction to the MATH STEWARD Model
• III. Simulated Consequences of Welfare Reform for Food Stamp Outcomes
• IV. The Contribution of Economic Change To Recent Trends in Food Stamp Program Outcomes
• V. Simulated Consequences of a Recession for Food Stamp Program Outcomes under Welfare Reform
• References
• Appendix A
• Appendix B
• Appendix C