International Agriculture and Trade Outlook No. (WRS-97-5) 28 pp

December 1997

Europe International Agriculture and Trade Situation and Outlook 1997

The EU's system of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs)1 that are notified under the Uruguay Round will have only a limited impact on the level of EU imports. EU agricultural imports under its Uruguay Round TRQs are estimated to increase almost $1 billion by 2000/01, the final year of URAA implementation, representing about 2 percent of current agricultural imports. From this standpoint, new EU market access opportunities under the Uruguay Round are limited. In terms of their effects on EU import source, countries of Central and Eastern Europe that concluded Europe Agreements with the EU (CEE-10)2 stand to gain a large share of the new imports created under the TRQs. The CEE- 10 benefit from lower tariffs for most products, while the EU counts imports under the Europe Agreements against the utilization of its Uruguay Round TRQs. The CEE-10 are expected to take greatest advantage of new EU market access for pork and butter, whereas the benefits of new EU market access will likely be spread among a greater number of exporting countries for poultry, cheese, egg products, and skimmed milk powder. U.S. exporters are most likely to be competitive in the EU's TRQs for eggs, egg products, some pork loins, and some cheeses.

Keywords: European Union, EU

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