International Agriculture and Trade Outlook No. (WRS-04-0502) 15 pp

October 2004

Black Sea Grain Exports: Will They Be Moderate or Large?

This report examines the prospects for grain exports by the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS) that export through the Black Sea, the largest being Russia and Ukraine. If productivity growth in the region is high, annual grain exports by Black Sea countries could rise to 30-40 million tons. Such high exports would strongly affect the world grain market, since total annual world grain exports during 2000-03 averaged 237 million metric tons. This report is the second in a two-part series on the integration of CEE and NIS countries into global commodity markets.

Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, Balkan countries, transition economies, grain, wheat, barley, agricultural trade

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