Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook No. (LDPM-15902) 27 pp

October 2007

How Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Has Affected World Poultry-Meat Trade

In 2003, outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus had a major negative impact on the global poultry industry. Initially, import demand for both uncooked and cooked poultry declined substantially, due to consumers' fear of contracting avian influenza by eating poultry meat. Consumer fears adversely affected poultry consumption in many countries, leading to lower domestic prices, decreased production, and lower poultry-meat exports. These reductions proved to be short-lived, as prices, consumption, production, and exports returned to preoutbreak levels in a relatively short time. As consumers gained confidence that poultry was safe if properly handled and cooked, world demand for cooked poultry increased. The cooked-poultry share of total cooked and uncooked global exports nearly doubled from 2004 to 2006. In 2006, the world poultry industry was again under pressure due to HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, this time in Europe. By the end of the year, however, world poultry-meat output had reached a new high, although, for some European countries, it was slightly below the 2005 level.

Keywords: highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI H5N1, cooked poultry meat, uncooked poultry meat, poultry exports, domestic poultry prices, export poultry prices, poultry consumption, poultry production

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