Economic Research Report No. (ERR-285) 28 pp

February 2021

Evaluating U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Long-Term Forecasts for U.S. Harvested Area

This report analyzes the accuracy of the historical baseline projections for U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat harvested area for the period from 1997 to 2017. The report finds that statistical modeling approaches have the potential to improve the performance of USDA’s baseline projections.

Keywords: Agricultural baseline projections, harvested area, corn, soybeans, wheat, forecast, real-time dataset

In this publication...