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Rice Yearbook - Documentation

Scope

The purpose of the Rice Yearbook is to collect, categorize, summarize, and present stakeholders with accurate data on rice in an easy-to-use format. These data can be used to inform decision-making processes, guide research questions, and provide insights into commodity market trends. The potential impact of this product is significant, as it can inform policy decisions, agricultural practices, and business strategies within the rice sector.

The data product provides a comprehensive set of data, including: U.S. acreage, production, yield, price, supply and utilization, disappearance, beginning and ending stocks, loan and payment rates, imports, and exports. In addition to U.S. rice data, the yearbook includes: global supply and utilization, imports, exports, and export prices for select countries. This information makes the data product a valuable resource for anyone seeking detailed insights into domestic and global rice markets.

Coverage of Data

  • The yearbook tables contain summary statistics, some of which are based on calculations.

Updates

  • The Rice Yearbook is updated annually.

Marketing Years

  • Marketing years often begin in 1 calendar year and end in the next—for example, 2025/26 refers to the marketing year beginning in 2025 and ending in 2026. The national marketing year for rice begins on August 1 and ends on July 31. The State-level marketing year varies, with the marketing years for rice producing states listed below:
    • Arkansas and Mississippi, August 1–July 31
    • California, October 1–September 30
    • Missouri, September 1–August 31
    • Texas and Louisiana, July 1–June 30

Methods

Collection Methods 

The data for these products are compiled from various public and industry sources, such as: USDA, Economic Research Service; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service; USDA, Farm Service Agency; and the Creed Rice Company. For information on data quality, please see information available from source agencies. Links to source agency data resources are found under the “Resources” heading below.

Sources 

A machine-readable .csv file provides the sources for the Rice Yearbook Tables and is accompanied by a readme text file.

Construction Methods 

The data are organized into tables and machine-readable .csv files, providing a comprehensive view of the U.S. and global rice sectors.

Estimation Methods 

The estimation methods vary across tables but generally involve statistical techniques and modeling approaches to generate the most accurate and reliable estimates possible.

  • Tables 1–6 have unit conversions to shorten tables and improve readability.
    • Table 1: “Area planted” is converted from acres to thousand acres.
    • Table 2: No unit conversions.
    • Table 3: “Planted” and “Harvested” are converted from acres to thousand acres and “Production” is converted from hundredweight (cwt) to thousand cwt.
    • Table 4: “Production” is converted from cwt to thousand cwt.
    • Table 5: “Area harvested” is converted from acres to thousand acres and “Production” is converted from cwt to thousand cwt.
    • Table 6: Proportion of production for long, medium, and short grain rice is calculated using the following equation: Proportion for X grain = (Production of X grain/Total production)*100 where X is either long, medium, or short grain rice. “Total production” is converted from cwt to thousand cwt.
  • Tables 7–10 have calculations completed, using a balance sheet approach to estimate stock and use statistics.
    • Table 7: Ending stocks for broken rice is calculated by subtracting the ending stocks for “Long-” and “Medium- and Short-grain” rice from the ending stocks for “Total rice.”
    • Table 8: Food, industrial, and residual use is calculated by summing “Food use,” “Denatured for fuel,” and “Residual.” 
    • Table 9: No calculations or conversions.
    • Table 10: No calculations or conversions.
  • Table 11 has no calculations or unit conversions.
  • Tables 12 and 13 have no calculations or unit conversions.
  • Table 14 has no calculations or unit conversions.
  • Tables 15–19 have no calculations or unit conversions. Note that market years differ by State, as mentioned above.
  • Tables 20–22 have unit conversions to shorten tables and improve readability and calculations to compute differential between long and medium/short grain-loan values.
    • Table 20: “Loan rates”, “Reference prices,” and “Price-loss coverage rates” are converted from dollars per pound to dollars per hundredweight (cwt).
    • Table 21: “Differential (milled basis)” is calculated by subtracting the “Medium and short whole kernel” loan value from the “Long whole kernel” loan value.
    • Table 22 has no calculations or unit conversions. Beginning in 2024, table 22 began reporting weekly prices changes for every week even if there was no change in price from the previous week. Prior to 2024, weekly prices that remained the same were reported as a combined entry on the same table row. 
  • Table 23 calculates the “Total supply,” “Total domestic use,” and “Stocks-to-use ratio” variables, using data from USDA, FAS’ Production, supply, and distribution database (PSD), and has no unit conversions.
    • Table 23: “Total supply” is calculated by adding “Beginning stocks” and “Milled production”
    • Table 23: “Total domestic use” is calculated by subtracting the difference between marketing year imports and exports from the aggregate of the local marketing year domestic consumption from the PSD. 
    • Table 23: “Stocks-to-use ratio” is calculated by dividing “Ending stocks” by “Total domestic use” and multiplying the result by 100.
  • Table 24 calculates the “Other” imports and “Other” exports but has no unit conversions.
    • Table 24: The “Other” imports variable is calculated by subtracting the sum of all imports for countries included in the table from the world total imports.
    • Table 24: The “Other” exports variable is calculated by subtracting the sum of all exports for countries included in the table from the world total exports.
  • Tables 25–28 have calculations for the monthly simple average rice prices but have no unit conversions.
    • Table 25: Monthly price for all reported grades is calculated by finding the simple average of the weekly reported prices.
    • Table 26: Monthly price for all reported grades is calculated by finding the simple average of the weekly reported prices.
    • Table 27: Monthly price for all reported grades is calculated by finding the simple average of the weekly reported prices.
    • Table 28: Monthly price for all reported grades is calculated by finding the simple average of the weekly reported prices.

Units of Measure

The units of measure used in the rice yearbook tables are provided below:

  • Table 1: “Area planted” is measured in thousand acres.
  • Table 2: “Yield” is measured in pounds per acre.
  • Table 3: “Planted” and “Harvested” are measured in thousand acres, “Yield” is measured in pounds per acre, and “Production” is measured in thousand cwt.
  • Table 4: “Production” is measured in thousand cwt.
  • Table 5: “Area harvested” is measured in thousand acres, “Yield” is measured in pounds per acre, and “Production” is measured in thousand cwt.
  • Table 6: Proportion of production for long, medium, and short grain rice is measured in percent and “Total production” is measured in thousand cwt.
  • Table 7: “Area planted” and “Area harvested” are measured in million acres. “Yield” is measured in pounds per acre. “Beginning stocks,” “Production,” “Imports,” “Total supply,” “Domestic and residual use,” “Exports,” “Total use,” “Ending stocks,” and “Ending stocks difference” are measured in million cwt. “Stocks-to-use ratio” and “Average milling rate” are measured in percent. “Average farm price” is measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 8: “Beginning stocks,” “Production,” “Imports,” “Total supply,” “Food, industrial, and residual use,” “Seed use,” “Exports,” “Total use,” “Total disappearance,” and “Ending stocks” are measured in million cwt. “Stocks-to-use ratio” and “Average milling rate” are measured in percent, and “Season-average farm price” is measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 9: “Beginning stocks,” “Production,” “Imports,” “Total supply,” “Domestic and residual use,” “Exports,” “Total use,” and “Ending stocks” are measured in million cwt. “Stocks-to-use ratio” is measured in percent, and “Season-average farm price” is measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 10: “Beginning stocks,” “Production,” “Imports,” “Total supply,” “Domestic and residual use,” “Exports,” “Total use,” and “Ending stocks” are measured in million cwt. “Stocks-to-use ratio” is measured in percent, and “Season-average farm price” for “All,” “California,” and “Other” are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 11: All variables are measured in thousand cwt.
  • Table 12: All variables are measured in thousand metric tons.
  • Table 13: All variables are measured in thousand metric tons.
  • Table 14: All variables are measured in metric tons.
  • Table 15: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 16: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 17: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt (bagged).
  • Table 18: “Second heads” are measured in dollars per cwt (bagged), and “Rice bran” and “Rice mill feed” are measured in dollars per metric ton.
  • Table 19: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 20: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 21: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 22: All variables are measured in dollars per cwt.
  • Table 23: “Area harvested” is measured in thousand hectares. “Yield” is measured in metric tons per hectare. “Beginning stocks,” “Production,” “Total supply,” “Exports,” “Total domestic use,” and “Ending stocks” are measured in thousand metric tons. “Stocks-to-use ratio” is measured in percent.
  • Table 24: All variables are measured in thousand metric tons.
  • Table 25: All variables are measured in dollars per metric ton.
  • Table 26: All variables are measured in dollars per metric ton.
  • Table 27: All variables are measured in dollars per metric ton.
  • Table 28: All variables are measured in dollars per metric ton.

Accuracy Measures

Rice statistics utilized in ERS data products are primarily estimates, i.e., approximations. This reflects the nature of agricultural data, which often allows economists to represent market trends while acknowledging the variability inherent in agricultural data collection and reporting. To quantify the uncertainty of an estimate, social scientists and statisticians use a measure called "standard error." For example, if the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) aimed to estimate the average rice yield in the United States, NASS might survey a sample of growers. Because different samples could lead to slightly different estimates, the standard error provides an indication of how close these estimates are to the actual average, achievable only by surveying every rice grower in the country.

  • The ERS rice team relies on accuracy measures from trusted sources and does not independently calculate standard errors. In synthesizing data from various Government and reputable industry sources to offer a holistic market overview, the task sometimes involves transforming the original source data. Methods like addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division are applied in instances where the methods facilitate the integration of various datasets into a cohesive picture. While these transformations are selectively employed to create a comprehensive perspective, they may introduce an additional level of uncertainty. This is carefully considered in the analysis to ensure the integrity of the data.
  • The documentation is designed to simplify the process for stakeholders to trace the origins of the information presented, promoting a deeper understanding of the source data. For detailed exploration of statistical methodologies and insights into accuracy measures like standard errors and statistical reliability, consult the primary sources ERS has cited, such as NASS or other official Government sources. These reports often contain a "Statistical Methodology" section detailing standard errors. Should a report lack measures of statistical reliability, stakeholders are encouraged to directly contact the report's authors.
  • Adhering to this approach, ERS demonstrates its commitment to transparency and accuracy measures, providing stakeholders with thorough market analyses. This commitment ensures that the decisions made by users are informed by comprehensive and trustworthy data products.

Strengths and Limitations

The strength of this data product lies in its comprehensive coverage of a wide variety of rice production, consumption, trade, price, and use variables. The product provides a detailed balance sheet of the sector, offering nuanced insight into consumption trends and market shifts. However, the data are updated annually, which may not capture short-term market fluctuations. Additionally, while some of the data are presented in its raw form with minor unit transformations for ease of comparison across commodities, users may need to have a certain level of expertise or familiarity with the data to interpret and use it effectively. Users should consider these factors when using the data for research, policy formulation, or decision-making processes.

Resources

These data products are sourced from various entities, including: USDA, Economic Research Service; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service; USDA, Farm Service Agency; and the Creed Rice Company.

USDA Sources:

  • Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) – USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service's database of trade statistics for agricultural, fish, forest, and textile products from 1989 (or earlier for some products) to the present.
  • Quick Stats – USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service's database of U.S., State, and county-level agricultural statistics.
  • WASDE – USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board’s database of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
  • National Weekly Rice Summary – USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service’s weekly summary of prices for various rice varieties at various locations.
  • ARC and PLC Data – USDA, Farm Service Agency’s database for PLC substitute yields and other data (as well as ARC/PLC payment rates, reference prices, and other program year specific data).
  • Commodity Loan Rates – USDA, Farm Service Agency’s database for commodity loan rates.
  • Economic and Policy Analysis Reports – USDA, Farm Service Agency’s webpage listing Economic and Policy Analysis Reports.
  • PS&D – USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service’s database for production, consumption, yield, imports, exports, beginning and ending stocks, etc. for selected commodities and countries.

External Sources:

  • Creed Rice Market Report– Includes price data for several countries and rice varieties (not available to the public, requires subscription to view).

Recommended Citation

The recommended citation for the Rice Yearbook is as follows:

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (n.d.). Rice yearbook [Data set].