Documentation

Scope

The datasets presented below are used to produce the most recent ERS International Food Security Assessment, 2020-2030 report (see link below). They contain annual time-series data on food supply and use and macroeconomic variables for each of the countries covered in the report. The data provide a snapshot of each country’s agricultural output and provide important economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), total trade, and population.

International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30

Period Covered

The data are from 1990 to 2019 or the most recent year available.

Updates

This dataset will be updated annually following the publication of the IFSA report.

International Macroeconomic Data Set (Source: ERS USDA)

The International Macroeconomic Data Set provides data from 1969 through 2020 for real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), population, real exchange rates, and population for 190 countries and 34 regions that are most important for U.S. agricultural trade.

Agricultural Baseline Database (Source: ERS USDA)

The agricultural baseline database provides 10-year projections for below report which is published in February each year:

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029

The database provides the international commodity price projections for the period 2020 to 2030.

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Tool (Source: FAO/GIEWS)

This web site contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries. The information in this dataset is used as the primary source for domestic food prices in the International Food Security Assessment model.

Food Security Indicators (Source: FAO/ESS)

The following food security indictors are integral in estimating the number of food insecure people by income decile:

  1. Share of dietary energy supply derived from cereals, roots and tubers. The indicator expresses the energy supply (in kcal/caput/day) provided by cereals, roots and tubers as a percentage of the total Dietary Energy Supply (DES) (in kcal/caput/day) calculated from the corresponding countries in the FAOSTAT food balance sheets. This indicator provides information on the quality of the diet. It provides a cross country comparable measure of the share of dietary energy supply derived from cereals, roots and tubers.
  2. Cereals imports dependency ratio. The cereal imports dependency ratio tells how much of the available domestic food supply of cereals has been imported and how much comes from the country's own production. It is computed as (cereal imports - cereal exports)/(cereal production + cereal imports - cereal exports) * 100. Given this formula the indicator assumes only values <= 100. Negative values indicate that the country is a net exporter of cereals. This indicator provides a measure of the dependence of a country or region from cereal imports. The greater the indicator, the higher the dependence.
  3. Coefficient of variation of habitual caloric consumption distribution. For many countries, the coefficient of variation, taken as an indicator of the dispersion of the food consumption distribution within the general population, is derived from available household surveys that collect data on both food consumption/acquisition and income/expenditure. When appropriate data for directly estimating the variability of food consumption are not readily available, indirect procedures are used by FAO to estimate a suitable value for this parameter.
  4. Skewness of habitual caloric consumption distribution. In probability theory and statistics, skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a real-valued random variable.
  5. Dietary Energy Supply (DES). National average energy supply (expressed in calories per caput per day).

Food Consumption (Source: FAO/ESS)

The average level of per capita caloric consumption by food group for the period 2017-2019 is estimated using the Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations (FAO) food balance data. FAO’s food balance sheets present a comprehensive picture of the pattern of a country's food supply during a specified reference period. The food balance sheet shows for each food item - i.e. each primary commodity and a number of processed commodities potentially available for human consumption - the sources of supply and its utilization.

​USDA Production, Supply and Demand (PSD) estimates (Source: FAS USDA)

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) production, supply and demand estimates are used as the primary source of supply estimates for the countries covered in the International Food Security Assessment. FAS’s PSD Online data for those commodities published in the WASDE Report are reviewed and updated monthly by an interagency committee chaired by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB), and consisting of: the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the Economic Research Service (ERS), the Farm Service Agency (FSA), and the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).