The International Food Security Assessment report’s production module aggregates a panel of agricultural production data for all 77 countries in the assessment to provide a model-based estimation for the current year and a projection 10 years out for yield and area dynamics. The aim of the yield and area projections is to provide an estimate of the Implied Additional Supply Requirement (IASR) by region and sub-region. The IASR quantifies the total grain demand in each region and sub-region that is not projected to be met through domestic production (PR). Total grain demand (TD) includes food demand (FD)—generated by our demand-driven model and nonfood use (NFD)—which is comprised of seed, feed, processing, and other uses. Thus, the IASR estimate for grains can be expressed as: IASR=TD-PR.
The IASR dataset from the International Food Security Assessment report (IFSA) contains estimates for the current year as well as a 10-year projection on the demand for food and non-food grains, grain production, and the IASR at regional and sub-regional levels.
Beginning in 2016, the method used to estimate grain demand (food and non-food), grain production, and the regional and sub-regional IASR is provided in the methodology appendices of the IFSA reports. It is important to note, that the “other grain demand” estimate includes seed, feed, waste, and processing. The IASR is defined as the gap between total grain demand (food and non-food) and domestic grain production.
The grain demand for processing, seed, and other uses is estimated to grow at the same rate as production. The demand for food grains grows at the average rate observed over the past 15 years.
Strengths and Limitations
The IASR estimates cannot be equated to the grain import requirement for a particular region or sub-region because, the metric also accounts for the unknown grain stock variable or food aid.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. “International Food Security Data: Implied additional supply requirement.”