Overview
The Global Food Assessment report’s production module aggregates a panel of agricultural production data for all 83 countries in the assessment to provide a model-based estimation for the current year and a projection 10 years out for yield and area dynamics. The aim of the yield and area projections is to provide an estimate of the Implied Additional Supply Requirement (IASR) by region and subregion. The IASR quantifies the total grain demand in each region and subregion that is not projected to be met through domestic production (PR). Total grain demand (TD) includes food demand (FD)—generated by our demand-driven model and nonfood use (NFD)—which is comprised of seed, feed, processing, and other uses. Thus, the IASR estimate for grains can be expressed as: IASR=TD-PR.
Scope
The IASR dataset from the Global Food Assessment report contains estimates for the current year as well as a 10-year projection on the demand for food and non-food grains, grain production, and the IASR at regional and subregional levels.
Methods
Beginning in 2016, the method used to estimate grain demand (food and non-food), grain production, and the regional and subregional IASR is provided in the methodology appendices of the GFA reports. It is important to note, that the “other grain demand” estimate includes seed, feed, waste, and processing. The IASR is defined as the gap between total grain demand (food and non-food) and domestic grain production.
The grain demand for processing, seed, and other uses is estimated to grow at the same rate as production.
Strengths and Limitations
The IASR estimates cannot be equated to the grain import requirement for a particular region or subregion because the metric also accounts for unknown grain stock variables or food aid.
Resources
Although the annual Global Food Assessment report outlines the data and sources used in the methodology appendices, users may also find related datasets and other resources of interest on the Global Food Assessment Readings web page. Archival results are available upon request.
Recommended citation
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Global Food Assessment data: Implied additional supply requirement.