Despite record-high beef prices, 2014 food inflation was close to 20-year average

Retail food price inflation has been more volatile in recent years. In 2007 and 2008, grocery store (food-at-home) prices rose 4.2 and 6.4 percent, respectively, as a result of rapid increases in farm-level rice, grain, and oilseed prices. The Great Recession helped push down at-home food price inflation to just 0.5 percent in 2009 and 0.3 percent in 2010. Inflation was again higher than the 20-year average in 2011, reaching 4.8 percent. However, in 2014 retail food prices rose 2.4 percent, near the 20-year annual average of 2.6 percent. While retail food price inflation was modest in 2014, food categories in the perimeter of the grocery store—beef and veal, pork, eggs, dairy, and fresh fruit—all experienced above average inflation. In contrast, items in the center aisles experienced inflation below average or, in some instances, even saw deflation; prices for sugars and sweets and for nonalcoholic beverages fell in 2014. Information on ERS’s food price forecasts can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 23, 2015.