Most retail food prices grew more slowly in first half of 2025 than average mid-year rates from 2005–24

In the first six months of 2025, retail prices for six food-at-home categories grew slower than their average rate of growth over the same months of 2005 to 2024, while prices fell for two categories. Food at home includes foods purchased at grocery stores and other retail outlets. These six categories include fresh fruit (up 1.5 percent in the first half of 2025 versus a 20-year average growth rate of 1.6 percent), poultry (up 1.3 percent versus 1.8 percent), fish and seafood (up 1.0 percent versus 2.2 percent), dairy products (up 0.9 percent versus 1.5 percent), other foods (up 0.6 percent versus 1.9 percent), and cereal and bakery products (up 0.5 percent versus 2.2 percent). Retail prices fell in the first six months of 2025 for fats and oils (down 0.6 percent), as well as fresh vegetables (down 2.0 percent). However, retail prices for eggs, meats, nonalcoholic beverages, and sugars and sweets grew faster during the first half of 2025 than their 20-year, mid-year average rate of growth. Egg prices averaged 38.5 percent higher between January 2025 and June 2025 than they did in all months in 2024 on average primarily because of an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. Meat prices averaged 3.0 percent higher because of tight supplies and continued consumer demand for beef. Overall, retail food prices in 2025 are increasing slower than their historical average rate of growth. Prices paid by U.S. consumers for food at grocery stores increased 1.8 percent between January 2025 and June 2025. The 20-year, mid-year average rate of inflation for all categories of food at home was 2.0 percent between 2005 to 2024. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Food Price Outlook, last updated July 25, 2025, projects food-at-home prices will increase 2.2 percent over the entirety of 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 3.4 percent.