Continued decline in population growth rates projected in top U.S. agricultural export markets

Long-term trends of decreasing population growth are projected to continue over the next decade for most countries. Major U.S. trading partners with high incomes and declining fertility rates are expected to be especially affected. For example, the population growth rate for Japan has been below zero and the population has been shrinking since 2009. Japan was the top U.S. agricultural export destination by value from 1990 to 2003 but has since fallen to fifth place. Population size affects demand for food and agricultural products, and a slowly growing or declining consumer base can reduce demand for imported agricultural products, affecting export opportunities for U.S. farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses. The Eurozone is projected to have a near-zero (below 0.1 percent) population growth rate in 2025, a trend that is expected to continue for the next decade. For Mexico and Canada, population growth is projected to remain positive over the next decade (2025–34) but will grow at a slower rate than the previous decade (2015–24). Mexico and Canada are the largest and second-largest destinations, respectively, for U.S. agricultural exports. China, the third-largest purchaser of U.S. agricultural exports by value, is projected to experience negative population growth by 2034. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections from 2024 to 2034, June 2025.