Linwood Hoffman

Agricultural Economist
202-694-5298
lhoffman@ers.usda.gov
Google Scholar profile

Briefly

Hoffman is an Agricultural economist with the Crops Branch, Market and Trade Economics Division. His current activities include research and analyses on commodity market issues. Current research topics include; The Market for Distillers’ Grains, Substitution of Distillers’ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal, Commodity Funds Impact on Price Discovery of Agricultural Commodity Prices, Causes of Non-convergence for Agricultural Futures Contracts, Performance of Futures Price Forecasting Models and WASDE Price Projections, and Supply Response for Midwest Row Crops.

Background

Hoffman conducts research and analyses on a variety of topics, including; transportation economics of agricultural inputs and products, economics of finance for the food and fiber sector, and commodity issues of supply, demand, price, market structure and performance, policy and program alternatives, and trade.  Earlier in his career he served as the Acting Editor of USDA’s Agricultural Outlook magazine.  He also served as co-coordinator for an ERS WTO project where he was responsible for and led a team of economists analyzing the impacts of the WTO on individual U.S. commodities.  Later, Hoffman led a team of economists that prepared commodity background reports prior to the 2006 Farm Bill.  Hoffman served as Acting Branch Chief for two MTED branches; Crops Branch and Animal Products/Cost of Production Branch where he provided leadership and technical knowledge for outlook and research activities, staff development, and attainment of branch/division goals.  He also spent 2 years of his career with the Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service (ASCS) (now the Farm Service Agency) where he analyzed ASCS commodity programs and policies.

Education

Hoffman earned a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Illinois and received an M.S. and B.S. degrees in Agricultural Economics from the Pennsylvania State University.  He also earned a degree in Higher Accounting and Business Administration from the Bethlehem Business School.

Professional Affiliations

American Agricultural Economics Association

    – Extension Section—Served as Director at Large, 2009 – 2011

    – China Section

Southern Agricultural Economics Association

Alpha Zeta

Omicron Delta Epsilon

Selected Publications

Hoffman, L., X. Etienne, S. Irwin, E. Colino, and J. Toasa. 2015. “Forecast Performance of WASDE Price Projections for U.S. Corn,” Agricultural Economics 46(S1):157-171.

Arnade, C., and L. Hoffman. 2015. "The Impact of Price Variability on Cash/Futures Market Relationships: Implications for Market Efficiency and Price Discovery," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 47(04):539-559.

Hoffman, L., and N. Aulerich. 2013. Recent Convergence Performance of Futures and Cash Prices for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat, FDS-13L-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, December.

Hoffman, L., and A. Baker. 2011. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers’ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex, FDS-11-I-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October.

Westcott, P., L. Hoffman, and T. Capehart. 2011. Corn Used for Dry Mill Fuel Ethanol Production and Distillers’ Grain By-Products, FDS-11G, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, July.

Hoffman, L. 2011. “Using Futures Prices to Forecast U.S. Corn Prices: Model Performance with Increased Price Volatility,” in Methods to Analyze Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility, J. Piot-Lepetit, and P. M’Barek, eds. New York, NY: Springer Science Business Media, LLC. June.

Hoffman, L., and E. Dohlman. 2011. “Market Potential for U.S. Distillers’ Grains Likely to Outstrip Supply Growth,” Amber Waves, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, December.

Hoffman, L., and A. Baker, 2010. Market Issues and Prospects for U.S. Distillers’ Grains: Supply, Use, and Price Relationships, FDS-10K-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, December.

Aulerich, N., L. Hoffman, and G. Plato. 2009. Issues and Prospects in Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Futures Markets: New Entrants, Price Volatility, and Market Performance Implications, FDS-09G-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Hoffman, L., N. Aulerich, and G. Plato. 2009. “New Traders in Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Markets Scrutinized,” Amber Waves, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Hoffman, L., and G. Plato. 2008. “Title XIII Commodity Futures,” 2008 Farm Bill Side-by-Side, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Hoffman, L., A. Baker, L. Foreman, and C. Young. 2007. Feed Grains Backgrounder, FDS-07C-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March.

Hoffman, L., A. Baker, L. Foreman, and C. Young. 2007. “Ethanol Reduces Government Support for U.S. Feed Grain Sector,” Amber Waves, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Johnson, D., B. Krissoff, E. Young, L. Hoffman, G. Lucier, and V. Breneman. 2006. Eliminating Fruit and Vegetable Planting Restrictions: How Would Markets Be Affected?, ERR-30F, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, November.

Dohlman, E., L. Hoffman, E. Young, and W. McBride. 2006. “The Peanut Quota Buyout: Sectoral Adjustment to Policy Change under the 2002 U.S. Farm Act,” in Policy Reform and Adjustment in the Agricultural Sectors of Developed Countries, D. Blandford, and B. Hill, eds. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publishing, January.

Hoffman, L. 2005. Coordinator and Reviewer. “Crops,” USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014, Baseline Report, OCE-2005-1. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist and Economic Research Service, February.

Young, C., D. Skully, P. Westcott, and L. Hoffman. 2005. Economic Analysis of Base Acre and Payment Yield Designations under the 2002 U.S. Farm Act, ERR-12, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September.

Hoffman, L. 2005. Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn: An Application of the Futures Price Forecasting Model, FDS-05A-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, January.

Young, C., D. Skully, P. Westcott, and L. Hoffman. 2005. “Farmland Owners Designate Base Acres to Maximize Payments,” Amber Waves, U.S Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September.

Dohlman, E., E. Young, L. Hoffman, and W. McBride. 2004. “U.S. Peanut Sector Adapts to Major Policy Changes,” Amber Waves, U.S Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, November.

Dohlman, E., L. Hoffman, E. Young, and W. McBride. 2004. Peanut Policy Change and Adjustment under the 2002 Farm Act, 2004, OCS-04G-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, July.

Bard, S., R. Stewart, L. Hill, L. Hoffman, R. Dismukes, and W. Chambers. 2003. “Risk and Risk Management of Value Enhanced Grains,” The Changing Face of the U.S. Grain System: Economic and Structural Implications of Differentiation and Identity Preservation Trends, ERR-35, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October.

McKenzie, A., B. Jiang, H. Djunaidi, L. Hoffman and E. Wailes. 2002. “Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market,” Review of Agricultural Economics 24(2):474-493.

Hoffman, L. 2001. “Enhanced Output Traits and Market Coordination,” Economic Issues in Agricultural Biotechnology, AIB-762, R. Shoemaker, ed. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, February.

Hoffman, L., and E. Dohlman. 2001. The New Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the Coarse Grain Sector, FDS-2001, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Dohlman, E., and L. Hoffman. 2000. The New Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the U.S. Wheat Sector, WHS-2000, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March.

Childs, N., and L. Hoffman. 1999. Upcoming World Trade Organization Negotiations: Issues for the U.S. Rice Sector, RCS-1999, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, November.

Hoffman, L., E. Dohlman, and M. Ash. 1999. Upcoming World Trade organization Negotiations: Issues for the U.S. Oilseed Sector, OCS-1999, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October.

Hoffman, L. 1999. Major Field Crops Section Coordinator, NAFTA. International Agriculture and Trade Reports, WRS-99-1, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Westcott, P., and L. Hoffman. 1999. Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs, TB-1878, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, July.

Riley, P., and L. Hoffman. 1999. “Value-Enhanced Crops: Biotechnology’s Next Stage,” Agricultural Outlook, AGO-259, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March.

Riley, P., L. Hoffman, and M. Ash. 1998. “U.S. Farmers Are Rapidly Adopting Biotech Crops,” Agricultural Outlook, AGO-253, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Hoffman, L., and F. Crook. 1998. China’s Agricultural Commodity information System is Improving but Lags the Development of its Economic System, FDS-1998, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Lin, W., and L. Hoffman. 1997. Market-Oriented Supply Response Under the 1996 Farm Act: Implications for 1997 Corn Plantings, FDS-1997, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March.

Hoffman, L., and W. Lin. 1997. "Market-Oriented Supply Response under the 1996 Farm Act," Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2005, Reflecting the 1996 Farm Act, WAOB-97-1, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, February.

Wright, B., L. Hoffman, J. Plato, and T. Covey. 1996. HTA Contracts: Risks and Lessons, AO-234, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October.

Hoffman, L. 1996. "Title I—Summary" and "Title I—Subtitle G" in Provisions of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act of 1996, AIB-729, F. Nelson, and L. Schertz, eds. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September.

Hoffman, L. 1996. "Asset Capitalization" in Issues in Agricultural Commodity Policy, M. Herlihy, and C. Young, eds., Staff Paper Number 9610, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June.

Hoffman, L. 1995. "World Production and Use of Oats," The Oat Crop: Production and Utilization, R. Welch, ed. London, UK: Chapman & Hall. ISBN 0 412 37310 6. First edition, December.

Hoffman, L., S. Schwartz, and G. Chomo. 1995. Wheat: 1995 Background Report, AER-712, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Hoffman, L., M. Ash, F. Tung, and J. Dyck. 1995. "A Comparison of Structural Change in U.S. and Canadian Grain Farming” in Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, a special issue entitled "Farms, Farm Families, and Farm communities," L. Whitner and D. Harrington, eds., December.

Hoffman, L. 1994. Secretary's Forum on Farm Income and Agricultural Policy: A Summary of Four Forums. Washington, DC; Tempe, AZ; Ames, IA; and Greensboro, NC. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, January.

Kisiel M., J. Burakiewicz, J. Jasinska, F. Blok, H. Kulik-Wojtys, and L. Hoffman. 1993. Grain Situation and Outlook Report for Poland, Crop Year 1993/94, Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Agriculture and Food Economy, and Market Agency, July.

Hoffman, L. 1992. "Forecasting Producer Prices of Rough Rice with Futures Prices,” Rice Situation and Outlook Report, RS-63, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Hoffman, L. 1992. "Forecasting Season-Average Wheat Prices Using Futures Prices," Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook, WS-296, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March.

Hoffman, L., and C. Davison. 1992. "Forecasting U.S. Soybean Prices with Futures Prices," Oil Crops Situation and Outlook Report, OCS-32, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, January.

Hoffman, L. 1991. "Forecasting Season-Average Corn Prices Using Current Futures Prices," Feed Situation and Outlook Report, FDS-318, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May.

Kisiel, M., J. Burakiewicz, J. Jasinska, F. Blok, H. Kulik-Wojtys, and L. Hoffman. 1991. Grain Situation and Outlook Report for Poland, Crop Year 1991/92, Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Agriculture and Food Economy, and Market Agency, October.

Ash, M., W. Lin, and S. Mercier. 1990. U.S. Feed Grains: Background for 1990 Farm Legislation, AIB-604, L. Hoffman, ed. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May.

Hoffman, L. 1990. "Performance of the Rough Rice Futures Market,” Rice Situation and Outlook Report, RS-57, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Hyberg, B., S. Mercier, and L. Hoffman. 1990. The World Coarse Grain Market—Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform, AGES-90-17, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, February.

Hoffman, L., B. Hyberg, and S. Mercier. 1989. “Liberalizing World Trade in Coarse Grains" in Agricultural Outlook, AO-157, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October.

Wright, B., J. Harwood, L. Hoffman, and R. Heifner. 1988. Forward Contracting in the Corn Belt and Spring Wheat Areas, 1988: Results of an Elevator Survey, AGES-881102, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, December.

Hoffman, L., J. Harwood and M. Leath. 1988. Economic Effects of Standardizing Wheat Protein Reporting, AGES-880826, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, November.

Hoffman, L., R. Heifner, and G. Plato. 1988. “Effects of Commodity Options on Crop Producers’ Revenue Risk: Implications for Lenders,” Agricultural Income and Finance: Situation and Outlook Report, AFO-30, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September.

Harwood, J., L. Hoffman, and M. Leath. 1987. "Marketing and Pricing Methods of Midwest Corn Producers," Feed Situation and Outlook, FDS‑303, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Hoffman, L., and P. Sronce. 1987. Oats Imports: The U.S. Market and Government Programs, AGES-870601, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Hoffman, L., M. Leath, and L. Hill. 1985. "Effects of a Flexible Rail Rate Policy upon the Storage and Transportation System for Feed Grains," North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics ,7(1):79‑93.

Lin, W., J. Glauber, L. Hoffman, K. Collins, and S. Evans. 1985. The Farmer‑Owned Reserve Release Mechanism and State Grain Prices, AGES-850717, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.

Hoffman, L., L. Hill, and M. Leath. 1985. A Flexible Rail Rate Policy: Impacts on U.S. Feed Grains, TB- 1701, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.

Hoffman, L. 1985. The Current Financial Conditions of Farmers and Farm Lenders, AIB-490, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March. (I was one of many authors contributing to this report. My contribution covered the setting of the problem.)

Hoffman, L. 1984. "Agricultural Economy," Agricultural Outlook, AO‑96, AO-100, and AO-104, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, March, July, and November.

Hoffman, L. 1984. Economics Editor, Agricultural Outlook, AO-96 through AO-104, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, November 1983 through November 1984.

Gabriel, S., L. Hoffman, J. Stam, J. Hrubovcak, W. Rome, R. Durst, R. Jeremias, and W. Kaiser. 1983. Financial Conditions in the Farm Sector, AGES‑830523, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June.

Hoffman, L. 1983. "Agricultural Finance," Agricultural Outlook, AO‑87, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May.

Hoffman, L. 1980. "Storage and Transportation," Agricultural Outlook, AO‑56, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economics Statistics and Cooperative Service, July.

Hoffman, L. 1979. "Transportation Policies and Farm Structure," Structure Issues of American Agriculture, AER-438, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economics Statistics and Cooperative Service, November. (Made a significant contribution to this article along with other members of the Transportation Section.)

Hoffman, L., S. Bermingham, and L. Hill. 1976. "The Impact of Unit Trains on Corn Price Relationships at Country Elevators: Two Case Studies," Illinois Agricultural Economics, 16(2), Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Illinois, July.

Hoffman, L., P. Boles, and T. Hutchinson. 1975. Livestock Trucking Services: Quality, Adequacy, and Shipment Patterns, AER-312, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October.

Hutchinson, T., L. Hoffman, and R. Parlett. 1974. Improving the Export Distribution System for Fresh Fruits and Vegetables, Marketing Research Report No. 1027, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August.