Carlos Arnade

Agricultural Economist


Carlos Arnade joined the Economic Research Service (ERS) in 1984, after working with rural banks while serving in Peace Corps Philippines.


Carlos has worked on and published papers that evaluate import demand, focusing more on Latin American trade. In the late 1980s, he moved into measuring total factor productivity and evaluating its impact on trade and published several papers on that issue. In the 1990s, Carlos began working on noncompetitive markets, and, with other ERS economists, published several papers that estimated measurement of oligopoly power in various food markets. He also published several papers on estimating efficiency and technical change in Russian agriculture.  During that period, he also published papers on market segmentation and price analysis. Recently, with several ERS economists, he has published papers measuring the impact of food safety events on consumer demand, as well as analyses of price relationships in various cash and futures markets. A number of papers have made, and been cited for, methodological contributions to the literature.


B.A. and M.S. from the University of Florida.

Two years additional graduate course work in Econometrics and Trade, funded by ERS. One year Russian language training funded by ERS.

Professional Affiliations

Carlos is a member of the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA).

Selected Publications

Peer Reviewed Journal Articles:

Arnade, C., F. Kuchler, and L. Calvin. 2015. “The changing role of consumers and suppliers in a food safety event: the 2006 foodborne illness outbreak linked to spinach,” Applied Economics 48(25):2345-66. December 

Arnade, and Hoffman. 2015. “The Impact of Price Variability on Cash/Futures Market Relations: Implications for Market Efficiency and Price Discovery,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics  47: 539-59.

Gale, F., and C. Arnade. 2015. “The Effects of Rising Feed and Labor Costs on China’s Chicken Price,” International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 18:138-50.

Arnade, C., and G. Vocke. 2015. “Seasonal Variation in the Price Discovery Process of International Wheat,” Agribusiness 32:16-32. 

Arnade, C., F. Kuchler, and L. Calvin. 2013. “Consumers’ Response When Regulators Are Uncertain About the Source of Foodborne Illness, Journal of Consumer Policy 36:17-36 [C-2]

Arnade, C., and J. Cooper. 2012. “Acreage Response Under Varying Risk Preferences,” Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics 37:398-414.

Arnade, Carlos, Fred Kuchler, and Linda Calvin. 2011. “Food Safety and Spinach Demand: A Shock Correction Model,” Agriculture and Resource Economics Review 40:251-65.

Arnade, Carlos, Gopinath Munisamy, and Daniel Pick. 2011. “Consumer’s Welfare from New Brand Introductions: The Case of Potato Chips,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36(1):78-94.

Arnade, Carlos, and Keithly. Jones. 2011. "Crops and Livestock Productivity Measures for Selected Countries," Journal of Developing Areas 44(2) (Spring 2011):329-48.

Arnade, Carlos, Danny. Pick, and Gopinath Munisamy. 2010. “Demand Estimation When Prices are Unobserved: An Application to Fresh Lettuce,” Applied Economic Letters 17(17):1641-46.

Arnade, Carlos, Linda Calvin, and Fred Kuchler. 2009. "O157: H7 Linked to Spinach E. coli Consumer Response to a Food Safety Shock: The 2006 Food-Borne Illness Outbreak of Spinach," Review of Agricultural Economics 31(4):734-50.

Arnade, C., Gopinath Munisamy, and Daniel Pick. 2008. "Brand Inertia in U.S. Arnade Household Cheese Consumption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90(3):813-26. American Agricultural Economics Association.  

Arnade, Carlos, Gopinath Munisamy, and Daniel Pick. 2007. "Measuring the Degree of Retail Competition in U.S. Cheese Markets," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, Berkeley Electronic Press, 5(1).

Arnade, Carlos, and David Kelch. 2007. "Estimation of Area Elasticities from a Standard Profit Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89(3):727-37.  

Arnade, Carlos, Munisamy Gopinath. 2006. "The Dynamics of Individuals' Fat Consumption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(4):836-50.

Arnade, Carlos, Daniel Pick, and Mark Gehlhar. 2005. "Testing and incorporating seasonal structures into demand models for fruit," Agricultural Economics 33(s3):527-32, November.

Arnade, Carlos, Daniel Pick, and Mark Gehlhar. 2004. "Locating seasonal cycles in demand models," Applied Economics Letters11(9):533-35.

Arnade, Carlos, and Michael Trueblood. 2002. "Estimating a Profit Function in the Presence of Inefficiency: An Application to Russian Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 27(01): 94-113.

Arnade, Carlos A., and Stefan Osborne. 2004. "Measurement and Testing for Neutrality of Foreign Price and CPI Transmission in Russia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 5 (1), 107-125.

Arnade, Carlos, and Gopinath Munisamy. 2000. "Financial constraints and output targets in Russian agricultural production," Journal of International Development 12(1):71-84. [C-23]

Arnade, Carlos, and Daniel Pick. 2000. "Seasonal Oligopoly Power: The Case of the US Fresh Fruit Market," Applied Economics 32(8):969-77

Arnade, Carlos, and Daniel Pick. 1999. "Alternative Approach to Measuring Oligopoly Power: A Wheat Market Example," Applied Economics Letters 6(3):195-97.

Arnade, Carlos, and Gopinath Munisamy. 1998. "Capital Adjustment In U.S. Agriculture and Food Processing: A Cross-Sectoral Model," Arnade, Carlos. 1998. "Using a Programming Approach to Measure International Agricultural Efficiency and Productivity," Journal of Agricultural Economics 49(1):67-84.

Arnade, Carlos, and Daniel Pick. 1998. "Seasonality and unit roots: the demand for fruits," Agricultural Economics 18(1):53-62.

Arnade, Carlos, Daniel Pick, and Gopinath Munisamy. 1998. "Testing Oligopoly Power in Domestic and Export Markets," Applied Economics 30(6):753-60.  

Arnade, Carlos, and Utpal Vasavada. 1995. "Causality Between Productivity and Exports In Agriculture: Evidence From Asia And Latin America," Journal of Agricultural Economics 46(2): 174-86.

Arnade, Carlos, Daniel H. Pick, and Utpal Vasavada. 1994. "Testing Dynamic Specification for Import Demand Models: The Case of Cotton," Applied Economics 26(4): 75-80.

Arnade, Carlos Anthony. 1994. "Testing two trade models in Latin American Agriculture," Agricultural Economics 10(1):49-59.

Arnade, Carlos, and Amy Sparks. 1993. "Chile's agricultural diversification," Agricultural Economics 9(1):1-13.

Arnade, Carlos. 1992. "Designing a Profit Neutral Land Set Aside Program in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 74(4): 934-40.

Arnade, Carlos , Jorge Torres, and Page Rausser. 1990. "Land Trends and Sustainability in Latin American Agriculture," Land Use Policy.7(4):351-56.

Arnade, Carlos A., and Cecil W. Davison. 1989. "Testing For Aggregation and Simultaneous Bias in U.S. Soybean Export Equations," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 21(02):129-36.

Arnade, Carlos A., Cecil Davison, and Charles Hallahan. 1989. " Box-Cox Estimation of Soybean Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research .

Kuchler, F., and Carlos Arnade. 2016. “Consumers' welfare and off-season produce imports,” European Review of Agricultural Economics 43:584-608. ]

Mathews, Kenneth H., Carlos Arnade, and Keithly Jones. 2008. "Derived Demand for Cattle Feeding Inputs," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, 26(1):41-60. [

Munisamy, Gopinath, Carlos Arnade, Mathew Shane, and Terry Roe. 1997. "Agricultural competitiveness: The case of the United States and major EU countries," Agricultural Economics 16(2):99-109. [C-26]

Pick, Daniel, Carlos Arnade, and Utpal Vasavada. 1995. "Technology gaps and trade in agriculture," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 131(3):509-25.

Schimmelpfennig, David, Colin Thirtle, Johan van Zyl, Carlos Arnade, and Yougesh Khatri. 2000. "Short and long-run returns to agricultural R&D in South Africa, or will the real rate of return please stand up? " Agricultural Economics 23(1):1-15.

Sedik, David, Michael Trueblood, and Carlos Arnade. 1999. "Corporate Farm Performance in Russia, 1991-1995: An Efficiency Analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics 27(3):514-33. ]

Spreen, Thomas, and Carlos Arnade. 1984. "Use of Forecasts in Decision-Making: The Case of Stocker Cattle in Florida," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 16(01):150-154.  .

Trueblood, Michael, and Carlos Arnade. 2001. “Crop Yield Convergence: How Russia’s Yield Performance Has Compared to Global Yield Leaders,” Comparative Economic Studies 43(2): 59-81.

Economic Research Service Publications

Measuring the Impact of Off Season Berry Imports. 2015, ERR 197.

Calvin, Linda, Carlos Arnade, and Fred Kuchler. “Outbreak Linked to Spinach Forces Reassessment of Food Safety Practices,” Amber Waves, June 1, 2007.

Arnade, Carlos. 1997. "Agricultural Growth Sources: A Look at 77 Countries.” ERS Staff paper no 9709.

Arnade, Carlos. 1996. "Agriculture in a Dynamic Cross-Sector Model." ERS Staff paper AGES 9618.

Arnade, Carlos, and Gopinath Munisamy. 1996 . "Capital Adjustment in U.S. Agriculture and Food Processing, A Cross Sector Model." ERS Staff paper AGES. 9620.

Arnade, Carlos, 1994 "Using Data Envelopment Analysis to Measure Efficiency, Technical Change, and Productivity." ERS Technical Bulletin 1831.

Arnade, Carlos. 1992. "Productivity and Technical Change in Brazilian Agriculture."   ERS Technical Bulletin 1811.

Arnade, Carlos. 1992. "Productivity of Brazilian Agriculture: Measurement and Uses."  ERS Staff Report AGES 9219.

Arnade, Carlos. 1992. "Testing Two Trade Models in Latin American Agriculture."  ERS. Staff Report AGES 9203.

Arnade, Carlos, and David, Lee. 1992. "One Explanation for Nontraditional Export Promotion Programs." ERS. Staff Report AGES S9074.

Arnade, Carlos, David Stallings, and Matthew Shane. 1989. "Foreign Debt, Capital Formation and Debtor Behavior." ERS Technical Bulletin 1767.

Arnade, Carlos, and Praveen Dixit. 1988. "Testing for Money Illusion in Import Demand Functions." ERS. Staff Report AGES 89-3.

Arnade, Carlos, and Robbin Shoemaker. 1988. "Portraying Traders as Revenue Maximizers." ERS Staff Report AGES 881104.

Arnade, Carlos, and Elaine Grigsby. 1988. "Foreign Borrowing and Agricultural Trade of Major Latin America Debtors." ERS Staff Report AGES 880126.

Arnade, Carlos, and Cecil Davison. 1987. "Export Demand for U.S. Wheat."  ERS Staff Report AGES 870616.

Arnade, Carlos, and Cecil Davison. 1987. "Export Demand for U.S. Corn and Soybeans." ERS Staff Report AGES 870723.