Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, February 2018 (Summary)

Asia and NAFTA Countries Account for the Majority of 2017 U.S. Red Meat, Poultry, Egg, and Dairy Exports

Latest available trade data totals for 2017 show that exported U.S. red meat, poultry, egg, and dairy products went mostly to Asia and NAFTA countries. Additional export shares were accounted for by Central/South America and the Caribbean (CSA&C) and the EU, with the balance attributed to the aggregate “Rest of World” (ROW). For the U.S. beef sector, exported volumes went to Asia (66 percent), Mexico (15 percent), Canada (11 percent), and CSA&C (5 percent), with 2 percent each to the EU and ROW. For pork exports, Asia accounted for 43 percent, Mexico 32 percent, Canada 9 percent, CSA&C for 11 percent, and ROW for 4 percent. The largest destination for U.S-exported lamb and mutton was CSA&C (37 percent), followed closely by Mexico (34 percent) and then by Canada (10 percent), Asia (8 percent), ROW (7 percent), and the EU (4 percent). The largest share of broiler exports—33 percent—went to ROW, 79 percent of them comprising exports to Africa and Middle Eastern countries. CSA&C accounted for 25 percent of broiler exports, Mexico for 20 percent, Asia for 18 percent, and Canada for 5 percent. The majority of turkey exports, 62 percent, went to Mexico. CSA&C countries took 17 percent, Asia accounted for 11 percent, Canada took 2 percent, and 8 percent went to ROW. The largest destination for U.S. egg exports was Asia (33 percent), followed by Mexico (23 percent), Canada (19 percent), CSA&C (12 percent), ROW (7 percent) and the EU with 6 percent. Fifty percent of U.S. dairy exports went to Asia and 25 percent to Mexico. The ROW category accounted for 12 percent, CSA&C for 8 percent, Canada for 4 percent, and the E.U for 1 percent.

Sheep/Lamb: The sheep inventory registered a fractional decline, with 20,000 fewer animals than last year. While the NASS Sheep and Goats report shows 25,000 more market lambs on January 1, 2018, than in the same period last year, the 40,000-drop in breeding sheep inventory is likely to create headwinds for the industry. Production for 2018 is forecast to show little change, and domestic consumption is likely to be supplemented by slightly higher imports. Ongoing tight supplies of lamb and mutton in the domestic market are likely to limit export growth potential, but full-year 2018 exports are forecast to increase by 36 percent over 2017.

See the February LDP Outlook report and previous reports.