Market Outlook

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, May 2018 (Summary)

2019 Forecasts: Production of Beef, Pork, Broilers, Turkey, Eggs, and Milk Expected To Increase

USDA production forecasts for 2019 indicate growth expectations for beef (+1.8 percent), pork (+3.1 percent), broilers (+2.3 percent), turkey (+0.9 percent), eggs (+2.1 percent), and milk (+1.3 percent). Conversely, veal production is expected to decrease by 2.1 percent, while no growth is projected for lamb. Compared to average annual growth rates for 2014-2018, 2019 forecasts for beef and turkey are projected to see higher growth than the 5-year averages of 1.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Pork, broilers, and eggs are expected to be about on pace with 5-year average growth rates of 3 percent, 2.3 percent, and 1.9 percent, respectively. The forecast growth rate for milk production is down from the 5-year average of 1.7 percent. Over the 2014-2018 period, veal production contracted notably, averagingannual decreases of 8.1 percent, but recent years and the 2019 forecast indicate a slowed rate ofcontraction. Similarly, in 2019, lamb, which had average annual declines of 1.3 percent over the past 5years, is expected to maintain production levels consistent with 2018.

Sheep/Lamb: The early arrival of the Easter and Passover holidays this year likely contributed to strong first-quarter domestic lamb and mutton production. Production is expected to moderate for the rest of the year and into 2019 due to the limited number of market lambs. Lamb and mutton imports continue at very high levels in 2018, remaining well above 5-year average levels, with first-quarter 2018 lamb and mutton imports recorded at 80 million pounds, equaling the same period last year. The sheep and lamb price reported as USDA’s benchmark has been changed from the Choice Slaughter Lamb price, San Angelo, Texas to the Choice and Prime Slaughter Lamb price, St. Joseph, Missouri (MO).

 

See the May LDP Outlook report and previous reports.