Market Outlook

See the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.

Summary

Poultry/Eggs: Forecast broiler production is adjusted up on strong January production. Broiler import and export projections are unchanged. The projected first-quarter broiler price is adjusted up to 123 cents per pound on recent data. First-half 2023 forecasts for table-egg production and average wholesale egg prices (New York, Grade A, large) are revised downward and upward, respectively. The revisions are based on the most recent data on egg-laying flock indicators and overall price firmness. Egg import and export forecasts for 2023 are unchanged from the last report. First-quarter turkey production and 2023 ending stocks are adjusted up. Turkey exports are adjusted down in 2023 on expectations of weaker demand. Projected 2023 turkey prices are unchanged from last month.

Lower Beef Production To Cause Decline in Total Red Meat and Poultry Production in 2023

Total red meat and poultry production in 2023 is forecast to decrease for the first time in nearly a decade. This is mostly due to the 6-percent decline in beef production that more than offsets forecast increases in pork (2 percent), broiler meat (1 percent), and turkey (7 percent) production. Tightening cattle supplies are expected to cause a significant year-over-year decrease in beef production, the first decline since 2015. After 2 consecutive years of decline, commercial pork production is forecast to increase in 2023 on higher slaughter and fractionally higher carcass weights. Broiler meat production is forecast to continue its longstanding upward trend into 2023, increasing marginally over last year’s record production. Turkey production is expected to increase throughout 2023, under the assumption that the sector recovers from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.

Bar chart of year-over-year changes in red meat and poultry production

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