Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: November 2020
Third-Quarter 2020 Meat Production Supported by Heavier Animals
The average weights for pork, beef, broilers, and turkeys were heavier for the third quarter of 2020 than for the third quarter of 2019, supporting higher meat production or offsetting lower slaughter volumes. There were more hogs slaughtered in third quarter of 2020 than in 2019, while slaughter for the other three meat species declined. Hog slaughter increased 4 percent and hog weights 1 percent, leading to an increase of pork production by over 5 percent. Cattle slaughter was down fractionally by 0.10 percent. Cattle weights increased 2.8 percent, leading to a net increase in beef production of 2.7 percent. Broiler production declined by 0.4 percent, driven by a 1.1-percent increase in broiler weights, while slaughter numbers declined by 1.6 percent. The increase in turkey weights offset the decline in turkey numbers to leave turkey production nearly unchanged.
Pork/Hogs: Fourth-quarter pork production is expected to be slightly below 7.4 billion pounds, about 1 percent less than a year ago. Lower production derives from lower slaughter numbers, a consequence of tighter processor margins. Third-quarter pork exports were 7.4 percent higher than the same period last year, due mostly to strong shipments to China\Hong Kong. Almost one-fourth of third-quarter U.S. pork exports were shipped to China\Hong Kong. The fourth-quarter 2020 export forecast of 1.9 billion pounds is unchanged from last month.
See the LDP Outlook.