Market Outlook

 

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: July 2021

Summary

 

Exports for All Major Animal Products, Projected To Increase Year Over Year in 2021, Will Remain About the Same or Decline in 2022

Total exports of red meat are expected to increase by 7.2 percent in 2021 compared to 2020 but decrease by 0.9 percent year over year in 2022. Beef exports in 2021 are expected to increase 16.0 percent over the previous year due to robust demand from abroad, particularly from China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2022, beef exports are expected to decline 3.0 percent. Pork exports are expected to increase by 3.7 percent in 2021 over 2020 and to remain at about the same level in 2022, driven by demand from countries in the Americas (North, Central, and South) and from major importing countries in Asia.

Broiler exports are expected to grow by 1.1 percent this year due to increasing supplies and strong demand from Mexico and China. Broiler exports in 2022 are expected to remain about the same as 2021. There is a similar story for turkeys in 2021, with 1.6 percent growth in exports driven by demand from Mexico, but 2022 exports remaining level with 2021. Exports of eggs and egg products in 2021 are forecast to increase 10.7 percent, driven by demand from importers such as Canada and South Korea. In 2022, however, export volumes of eggs and egg products are forecast to decrease by 4.1 percent.

Dairy exports on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis are expected to increase by 8.7 percent over the previous year in 2021 and remain at the same level in 2022. Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia are the top destinations for U.S. dairy exports.

Pork/Hogs: Information reported in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs foreshadows lower pork production forecasts for the balance of 2021 and into 2022. Hog prices were lowered for 2021, but lower pork production will provide support for prices in 2022 and the price forecast was unchanged. Pork exports in 2022 are expected to be unchanged—about 7.6 billion pounds—from 2021.

See the LDP Outlook.