Market Outlook

See the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.

Summary

Pork/Hogs: U.S. pork production is expected to be down 0.1 percent in 2024 to 27.35 billion pounds. Hog prices next year are forecast to average about $62 per hundredweight, almost 9 percent above expected prices in 2023. Exports for 2023 are raised 90 million pounds to 6.503 billion pounds, 2.6 percent above a year ago on the assumption that low U.S pork prices, combined with U.S dollar weakness, will persist through 2023 to drive export flows higher.

First-Quarter 2023 Animal Products Export Volumes Largely Favorable Compared to Volumes in First-Quarter 2022

A comparison between first-quarter 2023 exports of seven animal products with the exports of the same products in the same period last year show that four products were year-over-year greater and three were lower in 2023. In the first quarter of this year, more lamb and mutton (+31.1 percent), pork (+8.3 percent), broilers (+2.5 percent), and dairy products (+6.5 percent) were exported compared with a year earlier, due mostly to favorable prices and the depreciating value of the U.S. dollar. Lower first-quarter 2023 exports of beef and veal (-7.9 percent) are attributable to lower production due to drought conditions in major U.S. cattle production regions as well as higher prices and competition with Australia and New Zealand. Shipments of eggs and egg products (-22.3 percent) and turkey (-21.3 percent) were also lower, both due to export restrictions related to high pathogenic avian influenza.

Bar chart showing the year-over-year percent changes of export volumes of red meat and poultry products for first-quarters 2023 and 2022.

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