Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, September 2019 (summary)
2019 Per Capita Red Meat and Poultry Disappearance Forecast Is Up Almost 1 Percent in September
Production increases in the U.S. beef, pork, and broiler industries are pointing to larger quantities of red meat and poultry available to U.S. consumers. Red meat and poultry disappearance is calculated as the volume of meat and poultry production that remains for domestic use after subtracting net trade and changes in cold storage volumes. Dividing this residual by the U.S. population yields the per capita quantity for use in the domestic market. For 2019, retail basis per capita disappearance is projected to be the equivalent of 221.4 pounds, the highest since 2007.
The most important factors driving per capita disappearance this year are forecast increases in year-over-year production of beef (+0.3 percent), pork (+4.8 percent), and boiler meat (+2.0 percent).
Although per capita disappearance factors in export demand, it is largely a supply statistic. It does not take account of waste or nonfood uses of livestock meat products. It imparts no information about prices, tastes and preferences, and other demand factors that ultimately determine how much red meat and poultry individual consumers will choose to buy and consume.
Pork/Hogs: Third-quarter pork production is reduced slightly to 6.7 billion pounds due to a slower than anticipated pace of slaughter in August. July pork exports were almost 27 percent higher than a year earlier, raised in particular by shipments to Mexico and China\Hong Kong. The 2019 pork export forecast is revised higher to 6.5 billion pounds, more than 11 percent higher than a year ago.