Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: September 2020
January-July 2020 Most Meat and Dairy Imports Up, Pork Imports Lower, Compared to Same Period Last Year
U.S. imports of meat and dairy in the January-July period were mixed compared to the same period last year. Imports of beef, lamb and mutton, and dairy increased, while pork imports declined. Beef imports increased 8.5 percent from January through July. Of major foreign beef suppliers to the United States, imports from Australia and Canada declined, while those from New Zealand, Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Nicaragua increased. Imports of pork declined almost 12 percent, mostly on lower imports from Poland. Lower lamb imports from both Australia and New Zealand were more than offset by higher imports of mutton from these two countries. Combined lamb and mutton imports increased 6.7 percent. The 2.4-percent increase in dairy imports was mostly due to higher imports of butterfat products—butter, anhydrous milkfat, and high-fat dairy spreads.
Pork/Hogs: Gross producer margins remained wide through the first 2 months of the third quarter, due mainly to year-over-year lower hog prices. Third-quarter prices of live equivalent 51-52 percent lean hogs are expected to average $39 per hundredweight, more than 22 percent below a year earlier. Pork production is expected to be about 7.1 billion pounds, almost 6 percent above a year ago. Pork exports in July were 555 million pounds, 2.5 percent greater than in July 2019. Shipments to China\Hong Kong mostly offset weaknesses in other major markets. Third-quarter exports are expected to be 1.750 billion pounds, more than 15 percent higher than the same period a year ago.
See the LDP Outlook.